Dodgers-Giants position-by-position comparison: First Base

The baseball season’s coming up and Mike Krukow thinks Yasiel Puig is dumb for not pegging the Giants as their biggest rival. In San Luis Obispo, I’d say they are, though the two teams have not met in the playoffs since the Wild Card round started.

I thought it would be fun to, over the next few weeks, go position by position and compare what personnel the two teams have in preparation for the 2015 season. Today’s position: First base.

First base is a big contrast. The Dodgers have one of the steadiest guys in the league and a bona-fide star at the position. The Giants have at least three players who could see significant time at the position. Back-up players will be in parenthesis.

Position by Position: Catcher

Adrian Gonzalez (Scott Van Slyke?, Andre Ethier?, ?)

Gonzalez is the start and the end of the first base conversation for the Dodgers. The 32 year-old led the National League with 116 RBI’s last season and finished seventh in the MVP voting. He played in 159 games — the most since he was traded from San Diego to Boston — and was one of the steadier Dodgers. He hit 27 homers, but his batting average “dipped” to .276, his lowest full season in the major leagues.

As Gonzalez gets farther and farther away from a shoulder injury five years ago, he continues to show that he is a very productive player in the heart of the Dodgers’ order. His dependability and durability last season played a big part in the team winning as many games as they did.

ZIPS projects Gonzalez to have a slightly worse year than last season when counting home runs, RBI, WAR, and other counting statistics, but an identical or better year than 2014 is within the realm of possibility. When he plays, it’s likely Gonzalez will contribute at the steady rate he has for most of the past two seasons. The question will be — can he stay healthy? Dodgers fans better hope so.

Brandon Belt (Buster Posey, Andrew Susac?)

The Giants’ depth chart is fun and hard to nail-down at this position. (Although I’m scratching my head to find out why a depth chart that boasts to have been updated today shows Travis Ishikawa as a first-base option…) The chart in question shows Buster Posey as the starting catcher and back-up first baseman, which makes a ton of sense. Posey’s ability to play first base and the team’s desire for him to do the same will make the position a really flexible one.

The issue is one of playing time at first base. ZIPS likes Belt and Susac to have roughly equal contribution this season for the Giants, but that dosn’t say anything about playing time or where that playing time will happen for either Susac and Posey. Presumably, Susac will play mostly behind the plate, giving Posey a chance to sit-out or man first base against left-handed pitchers while giving Belt the night off. If Belt is less effective or injured again, a scenario where Susac and Posey basically platoon between the two positions, excepting days off.

Belt will be turning 27 years-old in 2015. He should be right in his prime in his fourth year in the majors. Injuries limited Belt to 61 regular season games last year, perhaps contributing to a mild ZIPS projection of less than two wins. He could produce twice that, which would put him somewhere close to where Adrian Gonzalez was a season ago. He could also be closer to the two-win player that ZIPS projects him as.

One really good, steady guy vs. options

While I’ve been touting the Dodgers giving themselves lots of organizational flexibility and options during the offseason, they don’t have a ton of flexibility at first base. In a pinch, I suppose Juan Uribe could play there as well, though someone like Andre Ethier could also fill-in were Gonzalez to go down for any length of time.

The question when comparing the Dodgers and Giants at this position is one of flexibility. Would you rather be the Giants, who have a decent starter, a catcher getting off the position for 30-40 games, and a relative unknown? Or would you rather be the Dodgers, with the best player at the position between the two teams but with some question marks after that.

Because of Gonzalez’ season last year, I’ll take the Dodgers, but not by as big a margin as Dodgers fans would like to think. If Adrian stays healthy all year and has a season close to the one he had last year, it won’t be close. If something else happens, or if Belt improves significantly, then the difference could be marginal.

Advantage: Dodgers.