The efficiency of Vince Moraga and Kristaan Ivory in Cal poly’s offense will be a key in tomorrow’s game. By Owen Main

A solid win at home against San Diego followed by a road game against a Mountain West opponent.

Sound familiar?

Last season, it was a recipe for Cal Poly to upset Wyoming in Laramie 24-22.

All the dominoes were set-up in Cal Poly’s favor — an injured quarterback, an early two-touchdown lead, and an opponent whose offense was far from dynamic.

This year, though, it’s a different story. Fresno State’s quarterback is not only healthy, he’s getting as much publicity as any other player in college football this week. Derek Carr, younger brother of Bulldogs legend David, has been featured on the Jim Rome show and CBS Sports’ main webpage.

Against Rutgers a week ago, Carr’s offense put up 52 points.

Cal Poly’s offense looked good as well, racking up 533 yards of total offense and 38 points. Here’s where numbers can be deceiving, though.

To beat an FBS school, a team like Cal Poly must do a few things very well. They must score early. They must play very good defense, probably forcing at least 2-3 turnovers, if not more. They also must dominate possession, keeping a potent offensive attack off the field.

Against Wyoming last season, they did all of these things. Andre Broadous and company ran more plays (81-62), had more first downs (20-14), and dominated time of possession (35:39-24:21).

But last week, despite the comfortable winning margin, Cal Poly lost in each of these areas. They didn’t run as many plays as San Diego (62-69), didn’t get as many first downs (17-19), and were dominated in time of possession (37:41-22:19).

You might say that it’s because the Mustangs scored too quickly. Their offense had too many explosive big plays for any of that to matter. And you would be right.

Except that against a really talented Fresno State team, if you leave your defense out on the field for as long as they were last weekend, you are going to be in for a long, long day.

Best-case scenario for Cal Poly

Vince Moraga’s offense finds a little more consistency, with lots of second and third down conversions, chewing up the clock and keeping Derek Carr and his offense off the field.

Cal Poly’s defense comes up with some big plays to keep Fresno State off the scoreboard and keep the team within striking distance going into the fourth quarter (maybe with both teams somewhere in the 20’s…). At that point, anything could happen.

Worst-cast scenario for Cal Poly

Fresno State scores first. Cal Poly runs 3 plays, doesn’t get a first down, and Fresno State scores again on the ensuing possession. In the words of Maude Lebowski – “You can imagine where it goes from there.”

In this worst-case scenario, it’s a certainty that nobody will fix the cable.

What will probably happen

Something in between. Cal Poly may hang close for a few quarters, but Fresno State is very good. The betting line is 27 points, meaning the oddsmakers are envisioning something closer to the “worst case.” I won’t make a prediction, but I would be surprised to see Cal Poly lose by more than three touchdowns, even to a very good Fresno State team.