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OK Padres. Fine. I’ll talk about you.

By
Updated: February 10, 2015

The Padres. Off the top of my head, I think of them as kind of a laughing stock, but they haven’t been as bad as that, necessarily. Over the past 10 years, they won 90 games once and had four total winning seasons. The Friars have had fewer than 78 wins in each of the past four years and five of the last six. The closest they’ve got to the division title over the past four years is 16 games back.

So, honestly, I can’t blame the team for blowing things up this offseason. I can’t blame AJ Preller for trying to do something different.

Different is a good way to describe the Padres’ offseason.

They traded with the Dodgers for a declining Matt Kemp, and most of his salary. They added Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Will Middlebrooks, among others. Their pitching staff, if it stays healthy, can be really good. This week, they signed James Shields to a contract that was way less than many expected from Shields.

At the very least, the Padres have a ton of right-handed power and names that should bring in closer to 2004’s 3 million fans, compared with the 2.1 or so they’ve been averaging over the past five years.

Good for fans…

My first thought about everything that’s happened in San Diego is that I’m excited for Padres fans. As a UC San Diego alumnus, I am thrilled for Padres fans. Whether they’re good or not, they’ll at least be a relevant talking point on the national stage this year — more than can be said for the team’s recent past.

Myers, Upton, and Kemp will be really fun to see in the lineup if they can stay healthy. Bud Black has a knack for getting a ton out of his pitching staff. The Padres may be the most interesting early-season MLB.TV teams to see just what their games look like and how they actually play on the field.

A great case study

The additions of high strikeout right-handed power-hitting outfielders will make for an interesting case study this season. The relative inability — according to advanced defensive metrics — of any of the three outfielders to play center field effectively could be interesting to watch. Speaking of advanced metrics, the Padres should have a really high strikeout percentage as a team and not much hitting from players who play defensively in the infield. Despite bullish projections for the Tim Federowicz/ Derrick Norris platoon at catcher, ZIPS projects all of the Padres’ positions to have 2-3 win players. The Padres should be improved at the plate.

While the three outfielders are really great hitters, their projected defensive value will be an interesting test over the course of the season. If defensive metrics are as shaky as some say, the Padres may turn out to improve enough to contend. If defensive metrics are accurate, the Padres may actually be limited to an 80-85 win team.

The case study for the pitching might be just as interesting. Having already flown in the face of conventional advanced statistical wisdom, Preller signed James Shields this week. While he has been a solid pitcher, Shields isn’t a darling of the advanced stats community. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a really solid pitcher over the past few years, but according to Fangraphs, he hasn’t been worth more than 4.5 WAR at any point in his career. Shields is solid, but he’s worth closer to the relatively modest four year contract he ended up with versus a megadeal he was rumored to be getting earlier this offseason.

What does it mean for the National League West?

The Padres are really just kind of fitting-in in their division. The Giants have won three of the past five World Series titles with great pitching and timely hitting while not being an advanced statistics poster child. Alongside the Giants now, the Diamondbacks and Padres are all making personnel choices that could be described as “old school.” It’s all setting us up for a season of, basically, the Dodgers vs. everyone else.

The Dodgers, who have hired a cadre of forward-thinking, new-school baseball executives, ready to use advanced statistics and all information possible in personnel (and, presumably in game) decisions.

Then there are the defending world champions and two other teams hell-bent on proving that grit, toughness, and old-school baseball still are what wins.

I can’t wait to give it a season or so to see who comes out on top. Someone will be right, and someone will be left to try to justify their offseason and organizational decisions.

As a Dodger fan, I’m glad because I believe what the Dodgers have been doing is generally a good plan. I’m glad because I don’t think what the Padres did will be great for them in the long run. I’m especially glad, though, that we’re not trying to copy the Giants. They’ve been successful, but in LA, how you do it is as important as whether you do it. I want the Dodgers to do it their way.