Recalibrating Dodger fan expectations — and it’s OK

I wrote last week about why I was still allowed to be nervous about the Dodgers’ offseason thus far.

I’m not nervous anymore. In what looks like a pair of brilliant moves, the Dodgers’ front office has continued to forge ahead with their mandate — win now, as best you can, but not at all costs.

By all accounts, Kenta Maeda’s contract is wonderful for the Dodgers. By ぽこ太郎 (Own work), via Wikimedia Commons

Instead of spending resources re-signing Zack Grienke for $200-plus million, or using a big contract to sign Johnny Cueto, David Price, or Jeff Samardzija. Other teams improved palpably, while the Dodgers seemed to be sitting on their hands.

But then, as the calendar year wound down, the Dodgers did some super-creative things. First they signed Scott Kazmir. Good things about that include getting a pitcher who is still in his early 30’s with lots of experience and relatively good health of late — in other words high upside — for only a three-year commitment while not overpaying a yearly salary or giving up a draft pick. He’s even taking some of the money deferred.

Kazmir’s year-one opt-out is good for both him and the Dodgers. If he has a great year, maybe he can get a better deal next year. If he leaves and signs elsewhere, the Dodgers will get a draft-pick in compensation. Worst case scenario – he’s a bust and they aren’t stuck paying on him for 5-6 years.

On New Year’s Eve, Andrew Friedman and crew gave Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda a contract that really smart people like Dan Szymborski thinks really highly of.

Get to know possible new @Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda: https://t.co/7wXTsMu9X8 pic.twitter.com/6RhSVRKxOy

— Cut4 (@Cut4) January 2, 2016

Turning out to be hard to complain about this 8-year deal for Kenta Maeda. Not something I thought I'd ever say. https://t.co/QzbZsR8Qww

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) January 2, 2016

8/25 for Maeda with heavy incentives? That's not just a great deal for Dodgers, that's one of the best FA contract signings I've seen.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 2, 2016

So, the Dodgers now have five or six starting pitchers for the beginning of next season, depending on the availability and effectiveness of Hyun-jin Ryu. They have filled-out their rotation for next season without giving up any prospects, and they’ve given themselves a good chance to be contenders again next season.

In the eyes of the front office, the best part of this offseason is the pitching depth that will likely be in triple-A this year. Those names will include Julio Urias, Frankie Montas, Jose DeLeon, Jharel Cotton, among others. Many, if not all of those guys, may be ready by 2017. By 2018, the Dodgers will be almost all the way out from under that Red Sox trade.

I told a friend of mine — a purported baseball fan — that the Dodgers were going to get Maeda. His response, almost verbatim was, “Well, there go the Dodgers again buying up players and spending money.”

I wanted to throw things. I couldn’t even start to try to change his mind. I basically ignored the jab.

But it’s bugged me ever since. The perpetuation of the narrative that the Dodgers have continued to just spend money willy-nilly is ridiculous.

For the past two years, the Friedman regime has kept its course. The Dodgers have almost $35 million of commitments coming off their payroll at the end of this season and, as of right now, another $40 million coming off the books at the end of 2017.

By the end of 2016, the majority of money the Dodgers have committed will have been committed by the Friedman regime. The trust that sane Dodger fans have had in Friedman for the past year-plus has always had a patience clause. Ned Colletti and the new Dodgers ownership made the decision to take hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll off the Red Sox hands. Friedman and co. have figured out how to rebuild on the fly.

If you thought the Dodgers should be as big favorites as they might have been in 2015, they’re probably not there right now. If you think the sky is falling, you’re also wrong. In both cases, expectations need to be re-calibrated.

After filling in their staff, the Dodgers have given themselves as good a shot as any to win this year, without jeopardizing their future. For those of you who want to say “told you so,” that’s fine. It was fine to feel nervous a week or two ago. Not anymore. It’s time to roll the ball out to the mound and play ball.

This season has a really wide range of possible outcomes for the Dodgers. That’s precisely what’s going to make it fun.

Pitchers and catchers report in less than seven weeks.