Cal Poly baseball starts Big West play at CSUN this weekend

After starting the season 11-12, the Cal Poly baseball team’s regional goals aren’t totally lost. But they’ll have to probably do even better than their 16-8 Big West conference season a year ago to make the postseason. 

Larry Lee’s team will start Big West play Thursday afternoon in Northridge (3:00pm). CSUN doesn’t have lights, so all baseball games there are day games.

Jarred Zill has come back this season to be the team’s ace. He’ll take the hill Thursday night in Northridge. Photo by Owen Main

The Mustangs have scuffled this season, playing well in some individual games, but lacking the consistency to grind-out wins on a daily basis as of yet. They beat Arkansas and Michigan in individual games, but split a four-game series with Paicfic (RPI of 187 of 297 Division I teams), and lost games to Grand Canyon (237) and San Jose State (209). At Nebraska, a top-100 team right now, the Mustangs won the first game of a four game series before losing the final two games during a Sunday doubleheader by a combined score of 35-5. 

Their only series win of the year so far came last weekend at home against Dartmouth (whose current RPI is 279). 

RPI is a measure that traditionally doesn’t favor west coast teams, but the Big West conference, a league that usually sends multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament, hasn’t helped itself this season. Only three teams (Hawaii (88), Cal State Fullerton (91) UC Irvine (95)) sit in the top-100 in the RPI and conference favorite Long Beach State is at 108. None are sniffing the top-25 at the moment. The other five teams sit between 150 and 218, with the Mustangs at 192, second from the bottom in front of cellar dwellers UCSB. Hawai’i and UCI are the only two schools in the conference with a winning record at the moment. The conference could get multiple teams into the tournament this year, but there is a real possibility that only one team could find their way into the postseason. 

The RPI can be useful, but it’s not everything. No Big West team has played a conference game yet, and Cal Poly can be optimistic. Last season, they won all but one of their conference series en route to a 2nd place finish in the Big West and a 16-8 conference record. The Mustangs will likely have to do better than that this year, win most of their mid-week games, and win an important home series against UCLA at the end of April. The best way for the team to keep a regional in its sights would be to win the conference outright. 

 Who to watch for

Alex McKenna and Nick Meyer are the names people heard a lot about in preseason. They are, predictably, the team’s two leading hitters. Tate Samuelson, a freshman from San Diego, has found comfort in the middle of the lineup. Samuelson, who played for the SLO Blues this summer, is second on the team with six doubles and a pair of home runs. Dylan Doherty has shown some offensive consistency and bat to ball skills. Bradlee Beasley and Kyle Marinconz are reliable batsmen who can be very dangerous. Cal Poly’s offense has averaged 5.3 runs per game. 

For up-to-date Cal Poly stats, click here. 

On the mound

Cal Poly’s rotation has been a little fluid. Jarred Zill returned to the mound and will be the presumed ace going into Big West play. Trent Shelton has looked good, but had appendicitis and his early-conference availability is in question. Michael Clark started as the Friday starter, but hasn’t started for a few weeks and looks like he may be in the new in-vogue multi-inning relief role. Thomas Triantos looked really sharp against Dartmouth and freshman Darren Nelson, who has been a two-way player, has looked good as a Sunday starter. Cal Poly’s relief squad is young — maybe a good reason to keep Clark in the bullpen — and their collective ability to get out of tough high-leverage situations could be a big key to the Mustangs making some noise in conference play.

For Cal Poly baseball photos, click here

Make them EARN it

There are lots of reasons a team can win or lose a baseball game, but the week-to-week stat that I’ve been looking at is errors and unearned runs. The Mustangs have played 23 games so far and have made 37 errors (11 more than their opponents) and have given up 27 unearned runs. If they keep giving up more than a single unearned run per game, they will stay a talented team with middling results. If Cal Poly can manage their defensive play and continue to improve on defense, they can once again compete for a Big West title.