Week Four, or Two for You, Oh, I don’t know…

Hey guys,

It’s the second week of Alliance of American Football picks, in the fourth week of the AAF (if you need to know why I am two weeks behind, please see last week’s post). I don’t want to toot my own horn, but please allow me to toot my own horn. I went 4-0 in my AAF picks last week, and I watched every game this past weekend, even the one game that was on something called B/R Live, which was shown for free on the pay streaming network for the Bleacher Report.

Yep, on a beautiful Saturday afternoon, I sat on the couch on my house with my lovely wife. Our daughter was playing at a friend’s house and we were home alone, and I thought, you know what would be a cool thing to do right now, let me airplay this new football league game from my phone to our TV so I can watch the Arizona Hotshots vs. the Salt Lake Stallions. This woman agreed to marry me, on her own! Anyway, I am really great, and I make great picks, and it was all my super brain, and has nothing to do with luck, and I am awesome, and rock on.

Here are this week’s picks:

San Diego Fleet (2-1) at Memphis Express (0-3), Saturday at 1pm PST

This game will be on the aforementioned B/R Live, so looking forward to a pretty hot Saturday afternoon in my house, and it won’t just be the action on the field in Memphis (I understand if you stop reading after this last sentence). After three weeks, what do we know about these two teams? They both have really good defenses, as the Fleet are second in the league in sacks , and first in the league in hurries.

You want to know who is second in the league in hurries? The Express. AND all of these stats come from a league where you are only allowed to have five people on the line, so there isn’t a ton of blitzing. So, we got two good defenses, how are the offense. Well, for two and a half games the Express were conservatively speaking, f*#%ing terrible. I mean they have Zac Stacey, who is the first 100 yard rusher in the league, but they also had Christian Hackenberg at quarterback, who was just really bad. In two and a half games, he only threw for 277 yards, no touchdowns, and 3 INTS. Well, they replaces Hackenberg with Zach Mettenberger (insert David Letterman “Oprah/Uma” joke here) in the second half of the Express’s game against Birmingham last week, and he went 9-12 for 120 yards and 2 TDs.

Sooooooo, he’s starting this week. San Diego’s offense looked great last week, putting up 25 points, Phillip Nelson looked much more stable in the pocket, and Ja’Quan Gardner tore off an 83 yard run for the longest rushing play in the three-week history of the league. I actually think B/R Live might be getting the best game of the week.

Prediction: I smell an upset, but I am a homer, and will say that the Fleet will win, but I don’t feel comfortable about it.

Orlando Apollos (3-0) at Salt Lake Stallions (1-2), Saturday at 5pm PST

Salt Lake got a win last week vs. Arizona and played pretty well. They have a legit stud  on defense with Karter Schult, who literally seems to everywhere on defense. I normally hate that analogy, but if you watch the Stallions play, you will hear his name at least 17 times, and it stands out because it sounds like the announcer is saying “Karter Shit”. Trust me, watch the game, and you will hear his name a lot. Orlando is still undefeated, and still probably the best team in the league, but fell back to Earth a little bit vs. Memphis last week, especially when the aforementioned Mettenberger came into the game in the second half.

Also, Orlando had some problems running the ball last week, and they are about to go up against the number one run defense in the league. HOWEVER, (capped and bolded for emphasis), the Stallions are second to last in passing defense, something that the Apollos do very well. I have to be honest, this game is a bit of toss up, as I have said in the past the Stallions are better than their record indicates, and Orlando seems to be coming back down to Earth from their great play in the first two weeks.

Prediction: I also smell an upset, as home teams tend to win in the AAF, so I am calling this the upset special (air horn sound, air horn sound, air horn sound) of the week, as the Stallions win at home.

San Antonio Commanders (1-2) at Birmingham Iron (3-0), Sunday at 1pm PST

Speaking of falling back to Earth, San Antonio looked good in their first game against San Diego (a win), a little less good in their second game against Orlando (a loss), and looked even worse in their third game against, once again, San Diego (a loss). The news doesn’t get much better for the Commanders as they are about to face the number one defense in the league in the Birmingham Iron. The Iron have only allowed two touchdowns all season (again, only three games), but still that is a defense that is aptly named (see name: Birmingham Iron). Now, let’s talk about Birmingham’s offense.

I’m not going to mince words, it’s not the easiest hang. Trent Richardson, (yes, that Trent Richardson) has six rushing touchdowns, but they are all short runs, and he only averages 2.5 yards per carry. So, you’re not getting a lot of big runs by the offense. Luis Perez, their quarterback, has looked good, averaging close to 200 yards passing a game. HOWEVER (capped and bolded for emphasis), he has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Don’t get me wrong, Birmingham is very good, but they aren’t the coolest hang on a Sunday afternoon, and I only say that because I see Birmingham winning this game easily.

Prediction: please see last sentence above.

Atlanta Legends (0-3) at Arizona Hotshots (2-1)

Sunday is not rolling out a hot slate of games that’s for sure. Atlanta is the worst team in the league. For sure. They lost another offensive coordinator (their third in one season), their quarterback, Matt Simms has look really bad (has thrown 6 INTs and 2 TDs), and they are getting almost nothing from the the running game. A

rizona is good, but they are still waiting to hear if their quarterback, John Wolford will be able to play this week. He went down in the loss to Salt Lake last week, and has been limited in practice this week, but let’s be real. Arizona is winning this game. Atlanta is really bad, and I don’t think I need to say any more than that, other than Atlanta should let Aaron Murray play. Simms is not getting the job done, and a lot of teams are finding success when they give their back-ups a chance (San Diego and Memphis specifically).

Prediction: Arizona Hotshots. Nuff said.

See you next week, when I am 8-0!