Will Lance Armstrong Admit PED use to Oprah?

I like to make predictions. Sometimes they are right. More of the time they are not. It’s fun though, so I do it anyway.

Here’s my latest prediction: Lance Armstrong will confess to doping when he is interviewed by Oprah (airing) on January 17th. I’ve written about Lance Armstrong before. Things have gotten even worse for him since then.

When it comes to baseball’s steroid users or anyone in the public eye who do anything bad like this, the almost-cliche response about what they should do is, “Go on Oprah and come clean.”

Alex Rodriguez did it. Instead of Oprah, Rodriguez chose ESPN’s Peter Gammons to come clean with. He wore a blue sweater, sat-down in a homey environment, and came clean. He came off as mostly honest, admitting that he used steroids and saying he was sorry.

Rodriguez’ “coming clean” was pretty textbook from a public relations standpoint. He met the questions head-on, showed some remorse, and came off as someone wanting to get it off his back and move on. Once A-Rod admitted use, there was a lot of chatter, but eventually it went away and A-Rod resumed his normal playing life (even though he hasn’t really been the same player for a number of years).

What does this have to do with Lance Armstrong? Well, if he was smart he would be studying the A-Rod confession. He would also be looking at the respective sideshows that Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmiero participated in. All those guys look like clowns now. Rodriguez may be perceived negatively, but not like those three.

Another great role model for Armstrong might be Mark McGwire. Big Mac vehemently denied use for years and finally capitulated and came clean, and has been better-respected for it over the past two years, serving as hitting coach for the Cardinals and now the Dodgers. He wanted to be back in the public eye and had to pay the price to do so.

Armstrong has also denied PED use with about as much force as a person can. He has been tested hundreds of times and always pointed to the always-outmoded tests as proof he didn’t do it.

If you are not easily offended, aren’t worried about foul language and are a fan of South Park, Lance Armstrong, and/or the Sneetches, you’ll probably want to look at the South Park episode HERE. South Park’s Trey Parker and Matt Stone are the kings of modern satire. The sports world and its reflection on society are so easy to make fun of sometimes…

Anyway, back to Lance and Oprah. It is happening at Lance Armstrong’s home, so the “softer” non-studio, private environment is already in-place. I’m sure Lance will have lots to say. I’m sure millions will watch.

I play two scenarios in my head:

Scenario 1: Lance goes all Rafael Palmeiro on Oprah. “I never did any of that,” he says. “My teammates were forced to lie by USADA and WADA. Everyone is turning on me.”

Scenario 2: Lance goes all A-Rod: “I did it, it was the culture, everyone was doing it and I got caught-up in it. I’m sorry for any hurt I’ve caused.”

I just don’t think there’s a third scenario. I cannot imagine that, 10 years from now, Lance wants to have an embarrassing Palmeiro-like moment on tape when definitive proof emerges that, beyond any shadow of a doubt, he doped. I can’t imagine anyone would put themselves in that position, and because of that, I think Scenario 2 happens. I think Lance admits he doped. Two years ago, some people would have been surprised. Not anymore.

I can’t imagine Lance letting himself have a Palmeiro moment, especially with Oprah.