Championship Sunday Awaits the Clutch

Clutch. To grasp or hold tightly. To seize or snatch. Being or occurring in a tense or crucial situation. Tending to be successful in critical situations.

When it comes to NFL conference championship games, “clutch” is by stretches the one and only adjective that always separates the winners from the losers. And this Championship Sunday will be no different. There is no doubt whoever performs better in the clutch will ultimately be moving on to Indianapolis and the penultimate party. But outcomes are hard to predict when so many clutch players populate the NFL landscape that remains.

Baltimore @ New England – 12:00pm pst, CBS

The storyline all week has been Ed Reed’s comments during a Sirius XM Radio interview about how quarterback Joe Flacco underachieved in the Baltimore win against Houston. In the wake of the comments, Reed has backpedaled by intimating that his intentions were to simply “motivate” his quarterback for this weekend’s upcoming challenge versus the favorite Patriots. Hardly. Personalities that are NFL quarterbacks don’t need the scolding of veteran safties to help them realize the gravity of the challenge in front of them that is NFL championship football.

More likely, Reed was simply speaking his mind during a radio interview and is now simply trying to bandage the potential damage. Either way, Joe Flacco has averaged over ten wins as well as one playoff win per season in his first four seasons as a starting quarterback for a perennial playoff contender. Reed need leave well enough alone and stay to his own. Focus on your rule of 21, Ed, not your quarterback’s completion percentage or sacks taken, because Brady will challenge that very responsibility that falls on your doorstep.

Look for the vaunted Pats offense to possess the ball early, eat up the first half clock and slowly grind the ball down the field. I see the Ravens defense bending but not breaking in the first half, allowing the hot-starting Pats no more than 16 points before break.

New England’s defense is beyond vulnerable, and the Ravens offense has a major advantage in Pro Bowl running back Ray Rice. There is no doubt Baltimore will be trying to establish the run from the outset and will look to stay in manageable down and distances. A lot of the first half clock will be eaten with extensive offensive drives by both teams, as it is definitely foreseeable that drives that are long and few will result in a quick first half. I put the over/under at 25, with a 13-10 Pats lead or a 13-13 tie as the most predictable half-way mark.

The second half is where adjustments will be made in a tight battle and sheer will can then rule the day. I see the Ravens defense tightening up and forcing a few Zoltan Mesko punts in the third quarter, and Baltimore possibly even taking the lead.

The fourth quarter will be Tom Brady’s, no matter if he is playing from behind or ahead. A early to mid-fourth quarter touchdown pass will either extend or take the lead for the Pats. Joe Flacco has the potential to, at that point, either match or take the lead against a loose New England defense. But in the end, the law firm – Patriot running back BenJarvis Green-Ellis, ultimately becomes a factor in gaining some victory-hinging, late-game first downs.

New England’s offense and shaky defense outlasts a Baltimore defense that just barely holds on and keeps the game within one shot. But the Ravens offense will simply not have enough to contend and cash in at the end; 26-20 Pats.

Writing before even taking a look at the spread or the over/under sometimes justifies. Vegas currently says Pats -7.5 and 44.5 total points. I’m see the Pats winning by the neighborhood of 6 or less, and at least 46 total points being scored, as there is definitely the potential for 50 or more. Degenerates, take the Ravens and the points, as well as the over.

New York @ San Francisco – 3:30pm pst, FOX

What a match-up. And maybe that’s just because I get to hear the ins and outs of Ninerfan reveling with streamers after San Francisco’s big win over the juggernaut Saints. But that elation has now naturally come somewhere back to a semblance of reality, and only a palpable amount of nail-biting nervousness remains for Ninerfan.

All the hub-bub is about how New York is riding the proverbial wave, how it is all setting up perfectly for the overlooked Giants. They lost to the Packers in the regular season and ended up beating the Packers in the playoffs. They lost to the 49ers in the regular season and now have a chance to beat the 49ers in the playoffs. It should be understood that comfy and compartmentalized routes that result in making a good storyline for writers and bloggers shouldn’t ever be a measurable arguing point.

What should be argued is how the shoulder-chipped G-Men are being picked more than the slightly-favored Niners, who are playing in the friendly confines of their back-alley, Mission District-esqe gutter known as Candlestick Park.

The 49ers seem to be storming ahead with their own district of dirty attitude, and it is becoming more and more evident as the week proceeds that they are the ones now taking on the overlooked role in this match-up.

Both teams want to run the ball. Both teams want to shorten the game. Both teams want to win time of possession. But as both teams will struggle in the tug-of-war for the title of beast of ball-control, I think the difference will be how San Francisco will stick with it, almost to a fault, and how New York will abandon it when frustration sets in. This is the formula the 49ers have used to win games all season long. This is how they beat New York at the same site in Week 10 by all of seven points.

The first half will be a typical San Francisco first half, playing good defense, not making any mistakes and kicking field goals. New York will stay predictable on first down, but into the second quarter they will try to open things up. This is where Eli Manning makes a mistake and the Niners take advantage. I see the Niners being plus at least one in the turnover margin in the first half, and taking a lead into the locker room that means more than it reads, roughly 9-7.

San Francisco will also more than likely have first crack in the second half, as it is their game to defer and play defense at the outset. New York’s attitude coming in is not to defer as if they win the toss, they should take the ball from the get-go.

Wash it down from the point of attack, kick out the end, wrap the guard to the middle linebacker. Power play for days. Frank Gore, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis. Mix in a Kenall Hunter here and there. If the Niners don’t get in field goal range on their first possession of the second half, they will punt from midfield and play field position. That very concept ends up ruling the 3rd quarter.

As the sun sets, the home side is in the shadows, and the visitor’s side sees the last starlight of the day. The New York sideline holds their collective hands up in deterrence of not only the setting sun, but more figuratively the growing frustration taking place on the field. Eli and his magic are kept off the field for the most part, as the Niners value first downs, ball control, defense and game-shortening (once again, that formula) over points scored.

In what will be a lower-scoring, tightly-contested battle to the end, I see the 49ers holding on and making good on their Cinderella season, by draining New York in the end; 22-17. Vegas currently says 49ers -2.5 and 42 total points. Degenerates, take the Niners to win by 3 or more, as well as the under.

* * * * * * *

Clutch always rules in tightly-contested match-ups that have culminated to the ultimate of breaking points. Who will end up clutching up in the clutch? Who will write either updated history or new, long-awaited history?

These Pats and Giants need more rings to solidify their place in what will be ultimately reminisced. These 49ers and Ravens need to begin their own new regin in the annals of what is to be written from this point. The perpetuating story seems to never take a break. And that’s what us fans live for.

It may be snowing outside come Super Bowl Sunday, but Lucas Oil’s roof will be closed, like the top of a Weber grill, embers popping inside, ready to cook the next feast. Niners in white and Pats in Blue. How ’bout it?

So where the party at?