Fantasy Football First Round Feast or Famine

Try saying that three times fast.

After the first two weeks, fantasy football managers are either doing cartwheels or wanting to take a bath with a plugged-in toaster over their first round running back selection. The top 10 running backs were without a doubt in a class by themselves compared to running back #11 and beyond.  That being said, the top 5 were also in a different tier in terms of talent and potential when compared to backs 5 through 10.  Here is a quick breakdown of the top 10 running backs picked (based on Yahoo! average pick in 10-team head to head leagues) after the first two weeks.

1. Arian Foster (1.9 ) – The hype machine tabbed Arian Foster as the next great workhorse. Last I checked, true workhorses don’t twit pic MRI’s of their injuries – they rub some dirt on it and get out there. I didn’t have the first pick in any of my leagues, but I told myself if I were faced with the evident dilemma, Foster or Peterson, I would side with Peterson.  Yes Peterson has proven to be injury prone but, ahem, you get the picture.  It doesn’t matter what your name is, as long as there is an “RB” next to it, you are inherently injury prone.  Anyhoo, Foster sat out the first game and was eased into the Texans week 2 contest, producing all of 40 total yards.  Bleh.  If Foster comes back healthy, predicting his level of success will be difficult, as in the next 8 weeks the Texans face just as many great defenses (New Orleans, Pittsburg, Baltimore, Tennessee) as they do questionable ones (Oakland, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Tampa Bay).  What kind of year will the #1 overall pick have?  This is the biggest mystery in fantasy football today.  

2. Adrian Peterson (1.9) – A.D. All Day so far looks to mean all day gaining yards and handing the ball to the back judge in the end zone, not spending all day having his knee scoped.  When early mock drafts were taking place, Foster was the resounding #1 overall pick and Peterson was a distant #2.  As the season began, they both actually had the exact same average draft position (1.9).  While 245 yards and 2 scores isn’t the buffet of production you generally expect out of Peterson, he is the type of guy that once he gets it rolling, can put up some gargantuan numbers.  Expect big things out of Peterson the next 3 weeks against an improved Detroit defense, and two struggling defenses, Kansas City and Arizona.  At the end of the season, I’ll have a Peterson over Foster “I told you so” moment.

3. Jamaal Charles (5.2) – Devastated.  Noose-tying.  Gun-swallowing.  All are descriptions for Charles owners after he did his ACL Sunday versus Detroit.  Charles was subsequently put on injured reserve by the Chiefs and will be out for the remainder of the season.  I believe injury or not, expecting the same outstanding year from Charles that he had last year was a bit of a stretch and he was being slightly over drafted.  If given the opportunity, I would (and in fact did) draft Ray Rice or Chris Johnson over Charles.  The worst part about the tragedy of tearing up his knee is it could have been avoided.  He landed on the Lions mascot.  Wrong place wrong time or… Conspiracy theory?  Naaahhh.. 

4. Ray Rice (5.3) – Rice has gained 245 total yards and has scored 3 times in the first two games, most of which came during a week 1 blowout win versus the Steelers.  The fact that Rice can do so well versus great defenses like Pittsburgh is an exciting thing for Rice owners, but the fact that he doesn’t show up for a lot of big time road contests like last Sunday at Tennessee could be a red flag.  But maybe Tennessee is just better than we thought?  (I knew there was a reason I pinpointed Tennessee’s defense as a second/backup defense).  Rice and the Ravens could struggle the next three weeks versus St. Louis, the New York Jets and Houston respectively, but look for Rice to break it wide open in the middle of the season, when the Ravens have a five-game stretch starting week 7 in which they play:  Jacksonville, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Cincinnati.

5. Chris Johnson (5.3) – When drafting 4th, I was given the chance to draft either CJ or Charles with Peterson, Foster and Rice already off the board.  I took CJ.  Yes, I look like a genius now that Charles is out for the year, but to say Johnson has under produced through the first two weeks would be an understatement.  104 total yards and no scores in the first two weeks is baffling for a talent like Johnson.  Either teams are gearing up to stop him, he as lost a step, or Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game is just a better option right now.  Either way, in the next 6 weeks Johnson will benefit from matching up against struggling defenses like Denver, Indianapolis and Cleveland.  He will also suffer from having to match up against Pittsburgh and Houston.  His season could go two directions from here in my opinion – through the roof or in the tank.  For the sake of all Johnson owners, let’s hope it’s the former and not the latter.

6. Rashard Mendenhall (8.8) – Mendenhall’s 123 total yards and one score in the first two weeks isn’t a deal breaker, but also isn’t what is expected out of this rising back.  In the next 8 weeks Mendenhall will benefit from games against:  Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Arizona and Cincinnati; but he will also suffer from games against:  Houston, Tennessee, New England and Baltimore.  Due to this and the fact that Pittsburgh has always rotated a lot of backs, and the fact that their offense has been known to get pass happy when Big Ben is feeling it, the success of Mendenhall in the coming weeks is a 50/50 proposition at best.

7. Michael Turner (10.8) – After a breakout year in 2009 and a funk in 2010, looks as if The Burner is back in 2011.  286 total yards and a score in the opening two weeks is a good sign for Turner owners.  Anticipate The Burner and his tree-trunk sticks to avoid serious injury and possibly pile up close to a 2,000 total yard season and double-digit touchdowns.  With Tampa Bay, Seattle, Carolina and Indianapolis on the schedule in the coming weeks, I have a lot of faith in Turner carrying a lot of fantasy teams to big wins.  You’re welcome Turner owners.  Enjoy.

8. Darren McFadden (12.9) – Like Turner, all early indications are that McFadden is out-performing his average draft position of 12.9.  299 total yards and two scores in the first two weeks says as much, as a little nagging shoulder injury sure hasn’t held him back.  McFadden was an unreal talent in college at Arkansas, and was by far the best running back in the nation when he was an upper-classman.  After a few years of adjusting to the NFL, it looks as if McFadden is ready to take the league by storm.  The next three weeks could be rough as the Raiders play the New York Jets, New England and Houston.  The next three weeks after that though, McFadden could rack up some real damage, as Oakland faces Cleveland, Kansas City and Denver.  Don’t be surprised though if McFadden breaks the mold and takes those great defenses he is up against in the next three weeks to task.  He has the talent to do so.  And also don’t be surprised if McFadden is a top 5 pick next year.   

9. LeSean McCoy (13.8) – In a team of big name contracts it seems McCoy is a little over-shadowed.  He has managed to amass an astonishing 253 total yards and 4 touchdowns in the first two games, and yet the story is still about Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Nnamdi Asomugha.  I think McCoy likes being a bit under the radar, and when opponents are so quick to key on the other weapons Philly has, that’s when he takes advantage.  Let’s not be so quick to give him all the credit yet though, as Andy Reid has, as he always has, found creative ways to utilize the overall abilities of a multi-faceted back like McCoy.  McCoy could really flourish this season, as the Eagles don’t face a legitimate defense until week 12 against New England.  

10. Maurice Jones-Drew (15.6) – The great thing about Jones-Drew is that he has always pretty much played for a loser, and has still managed to put up big numbers.  Contrary to what he himself would lead you to believe (Jones-Drew is an avid fantasy player), MJD is no longer the top 3 pick he was in years past.  After the first two weeks he is about right where he should be numbers-wise for his average pick position of 15.6, 204 total yards and one score.  The next 6 weeks the Jags will face:  Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston.  I only see two cupcake defenses in that list.  Look for Jones-Drew to struggle a bit in the coming weeks.

What we learned?  We learned that you were just as well off picking towards then end of the first round as you were in the beginning of it.  When something like this happens it is always good for fantasy sports.  The old guard at the top may be slipping a little, but still has the chance to turn it around the rest of the season due to the overall talent in play.  And even better, the new guard that is right behind the old guard nipping at their heels is stepping up and playing a bit over their predictions.  We also learned that a top 10 back is going to suffer a season-ending injury just like he always does.  This is my 11th year playing fantasy football, and even though the names change, things stay the same.  All is well here.