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Home / Luke Johnson / Luke’s Western Conference Finals Breakdown

Luke’s Western Conference Finals Breakdown

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Updated: May 25, 2012

For the 2nd year in a row, Kobe Bryant and the all mighty Laker Show are on the outside looking in.  Even without the Lakers, there are four remaining participants with a righteous chance at league superiority.

For the San Antonio Spurs, none of this new. While the league  has celebrated the Lakers, Hollywood part deuce — the Clippers, the return of the Chowds — Boston Celtics and evil three (now two) in Miami, the poised veteran Spurs quietly go about their business, methodically behind the scenes. 


Gregg Popovich — favorite, for coach of the year  — has brilliantly woven together the champion tested trinity of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan with skilled youth ( Dejuan Blair, Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter). The Spurs also got well-timed mid-season additions of Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson. These veterans lengthen the rotation and give the team two more dynamic all-around scorers.

This year’s Spurs are unlike the defensive-minded Spurs teams of the past. This year’s version ranked 1st in points scored while maintaining their defensive identity, 6th overall. They were 1st in three-point field goal percentage and overall field-goal percentage, pacing their usual offensive efficiency. Without question, the youth of the team has lit a spark under their elder statesmen. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Mau Ginobili each had their best season in three years. Parker’s season was the most notable and while his numbers were not as flashy as Kevin Durant or LeBron James, (18 points, 3 rebounds, 8 assists per game, 48% FGs), he had an MVP-level season.
How important will that veteran depth be?

The uptempo Thunder will provide an answer.  Durant, Westbrook and company ran the “veteran depth” of the Lakers in five games. The Thunder have evolved the right way over the last three years, as they continue their ascent toward NBA dominance.  While their superstars have established themselves, the team has also discovered burgeoning talents along the way, including James Harden, Serge Ibaka and Erik Maynor. Coach Scott Brooks, has masterfully crafted together a young team of personalities, and made sure players know their roles.  

While many have argued that the best facilitator on the team is James Harden, Coach Brooks has maintained trust with radically dynamic, Russell Westbrook. Westbrook responded, putting together his best season, exuding team orientation, and deferring his shot (at times) to Durant. This dissolved plausible tension between the two stars and relayed belief in his fellow players. Westbrook’s ability to put the team first has helped the Thunder build a strong network of unselfish attitudes. 

Thrust this recipe into a fan-crazed “small-town” metropolis like Oklahoma City, and the Thunder have one of the best home court advantages in all of sports. The Ford Center rocks and roles with the Thunder blue, igniting a team of young believers with a much needed chip on their shoulder. 
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook definitely have something to prove. Dissolving in the Western Finals to the would be champion, Dallas Mavericks, last year brought into question whether or not the two stars could co-exist, and whether they were built with a champion’s poise. This year has been different: Durant and Westbrook have backed each other in the media, while the Moses-bearded Harden has slowly become the new era version of Manu Ginobili. 

Maturation, when developed the right way, is a slow, soggy process. One that, if waited for, can build  a perennial power from the ground-up. Along their journey, the Thunder have bonded and gelled a unified front — one that finished 2nd in points scored, 4th in three point field goal percentage, 9th in total defense, 2nd in steals and 1st in blocked shots. 

These facts you need to know before selecting your Western Finals Winner

1. The Spurs have won eight of the last ten meetings between the two teams.
2. Tony Parker scored a season-high 42 points on 29 shots against Russell Westbrook in their last meeting.
3. Parker has historically struggled guarding stronger more agile point guards. This is important because he will have to defend the Westbrook-Durant pick-and-roll.
4. The Spurs are 8-0 in the playoffs this season. 
5. The Thunder came from behind three times against Lakers in the fourth quarter of the conference semi-finals series. Will they be able to do the same against the Spurs?
6. The Thunder are averaging 1.08 points per possession in playoffs; the Spurs, 1.18. 

Ultimately, the series will come down to both teams’ big three and whether or not the cerebral spurs or quick Thunder can guard the pick and roll. Parker is a blur in the open court and his team’s spark. If he gets off hot like he did in the teams’ last meeting, the series could be over quickly . When guarding the Spurs in the open court, a team must play the corners for the pull up three and partly sag, to hinder the erratic Parker’s drive. Getting the Spurs into a half-court game is not a guarantee of victory by any means, but beating an aging Tim Duncan is the only way the Thunder can beat the Spurs. 

The X- factors on the Thunder’s side, are both Westbrook and Harden. Can Westbrook divert Parker’s drive, create turnovers and get himself into the open court where he’s best? Can the Spurs step in front of Westbrook’s arrow-like split of the pick and roll (between the pick instead of over it) and rotate quickly enough to disturb his above the rim aggression? Harden IS the team’s best facilitator and is close to the quickest guy on the court. His use of body control to draw fouls on the perimeter could be something that gets Parker, Neal, Danny Green and Ginobili into foul trouble. 

Oddly enough, Durant is odd man out. Despite his overall impact on the series — which will be huge — the reigning scoring champ will act as decoy and “another option” to create diversity within the Thunder attack. This isn’t to say Durant can struggle in the series and the Thunder win. But it is to say, if Westbrook and Harden can out-match Parker and Ginobili, the series should belong to the Thunder. Who can possibly shut down the most fluidly gifted scorer in the league? Second-year player Danny Green is the Spurs’ best option, but the concept of him stifling Durant’s scoring is a bit far-fetched. In their last meeting, Green disrupted Durant the best he could, and the star finished 8 of 19 from the floor with 25 points.  

I’m bent on believing in cerebral experience above and beyond maturing youth. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder made a run at winning a championship, I would be more surprised to see the Spurs ousted in the Western Conference Finals. A reborn Tim Duncan has solidified the Spurs as not just a run and gun squad but as a half court, beat you up, shot clock working post threat also. This will be too much for the Thunder. The presumed “passing of the torch” between the two similar teams, will not be this year. Duncan is hungry for a 5th ring to continue his ascension into a top – ten player of All – Time, Parker is hungry for league-wide adoration (historically ignored in great point guard talks) and Gregg Popovich desires his name to be among the likes of Phil Jackson, Red Aurbach, Pat Riley and Lenny Wilkens.
Next year Thunder. Spurs in 6. 


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