No Clear Frontrunners in NL Central Pitching

Much has been made of pitching in baseball over the past few seasons. The game has seen a shift from more dominant power-hitters to more shutdown pitchers since the “steroid era” “ended.”

While there are still many bona fide power hitters in the majors (Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano, etc.), building a strong pitching rotation has become more of a prominent priority for successful teams. Just last season (2011), baseball had a pitcher, Justin Verlander, win both the MVP award and the CY Young award in the American League. Pitching has always been important to America’s pastime but now it’s more crucial than ever.

Here is my fifth installment and this time I’m taking my talents to the National League, breaking down each team’s potential starting rotation for the 2013 season with the average Earned Run Average (we know averaging an average isn’t scientifically sound, but we’re doing it anyway…): This time, the spotlight is on the NL Central…

Cincinnati Reds:

1. Johnny Cueto (19-9, 2.78 ERA, 170 Strikeouts)
2. Mat Latos (14-4, 3.48 ERA, 185 Strikeouts)
3. Bronson Arroyo (12-10, 3.74 ERA, 129 Strikeouts)
4. Homer Bailey (13-10, 3.68 ERA, 168 Strikeouts)
5. Mike Leake (8-9, 4.58 ERA, 116 Strikeouts)

Average Combined 2012 ERA: 3.65

St. Louis Cardinals:

1. Adam Wainwright (14-13, 3.94 ERA, 184 Strikeouts)
2. Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.71 ERA, 12 Strikeouts)
3. Jake Westbrook (13-11 3.97 ERA, 106 Strikeouts)
4. Lance Lynn (18-7, 3.78 ERA, 180 Strikeouts)
5. Jamie Garcia (7-7, 3.92 ERA, 98 Strikeouts)

Average Combined 2012 ERA: 3.86

Milwaukee Brewers:

1. Yovani Gallardo (16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 Strikeouts)
2. Marco Estrada (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 143 Strikeouts)
3. Mike Fiers (9-10, 3.74 ERA, 135 Strikeouts)
4. Mark Rodgers (3-1, 3.92 ERA, 41 Strikeouts)
5. Wily Peralta (2-1, 2.48 ERA, 23 Strikeouts)

Average Combined ERA: 3.49

Pittsburgh Pirates:

1. A.J. Burnett (16-10, 3.51 ERA, 180 Strikeouts)
2. Wandy Rodriguez (12-13, 3.76 ERA, 139 Strikeouts)
3. James McDonald (12-8, 4.21 ERA, 151 Strikeouts)
4. Francisco Liriano (6-12, 5.34 ERA, 167 Strikeouts)
5. Kyle McPherson (0-2, 2.73 ERA, 21 Strikeouts)

Average Combined ERA: 3.91

Chicago Cubs:

1.  Matt Garza (5-7, 3.91 ERA, 96 Strikeouts)
2.  Jeff Samardzija (9-13, 3.81 ERA, 180 Strikeouts)
3.  Edwin Jackson (10-11, 4.03 ERA, 168 Strikeouts)
4.  Travis Wood (6-13, 4.27 ERA, 119 Strikeouts)
5.  Scott Baker, 2011 season (8-6, 3.14 ERA, 123 Strikeouts)

Average Combined ERA: 3.83

The stats above are from the 2012 season and based off of ERA alone, the Milwaukee Brewers have the best starting rotation going into the 2013 season. This is surprising, since they were just the third best team in the division last season. At the end of the season, I believe that the Pittsburgh Pirates will have the most improved pitching staff.

Last season the Pirates showed the baseball world glimpses of what they are capable of before faltering late in the season, but this year they will be back again and ready to contend. They really have nowhere else to go but up, especially in this division. I expect Francisco Liriano to be better than he has been and help the Bucs already-decent rotation out. There is no doubt that this is a good division, with two of the four National League playoff teams coming from here, and I expect it to be more competitive than ever this coming season. The Pirates rotation will be better, but I don’t think they will win this division in 2013 (though I’d love to be proven wrong).

2013 will be a three-team race between the Reds, Cardinals and Pirates. I think that the Brewers’ sub-par pitching staff will hurt them throughout the season so they fall out of my contending teams in this division. But ultimately I think that the Reds will win this division and also the NL’s best record next year. Last year, Cincinnati overcame major injuries throughout the season and still managed to win 97 games. Without a playoff collapse against the eventual champions, the Reds were one game from winning a playoff series. I believe next year will be different and the Reds get their first playoff series win since 1995.