“Stop telling me to calm down,” and other Dodger fan offseason thoughts

It’s the day after Christmas. We are about eight weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. One thing about being a Dodger fan this offseason is starting to get on my nerves — people who are condescending and uppity to fans who are a little nervous about the upcoming year.

So much could happen at Dodger Stadium between now and the beginning of the season, but just don’t tell me to relax about it all… By User kla4067 on Flickr via Wikimedia Commons

I’m not trying to write some reactionary post, but I want to get this out there — it’s OK for you Dodgers fans to be a little nervous for 2016. Let’s examine the range of things that are still possible, new injuries notwithstanding — I usually don’t like to hypothesize about guys getting hurt. I’ll start with the bad. I’m not trying to be hyperbolic here — I’m just trying to lay-out realistic possibilities that are at least within the normal range as the roster is currently constructed.

The darkest timeline

The worst-case scenario for the Dodgers and their fans isn’t that bad long-term, but it could kind of easily go off the rails in 2016.

Let’s start with pitching. In the darkest timeline, the Dodgers roll with Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of question marks. In this version of reality that we’re all rooting against, Hyun-jin Ryu never comes back close to what he was, Brett Anderson and Alex Wood each regress, Brandon McCarthy’s Tommy John surgery recovery is delayed or something, and the Dodgers are forced to piece together their rotation with scrap-heap guys, since their management has been pretty hesitant to overpay in trades or on the free agent market.

In this timeline, Kenta Maeda goes to another team, Scott Kazmir goes to the Diamondbacks or Rockies or something, and the pressure on the bullpen becomes too much as well.

I won’t say anything about Clayton Kershaw, because even in the darkest timeline I can imagine, Kershaw is still really good. He’s Clayton freaking Kershaw you guys!

But the pitching isn’t the only place the timeline could get dark.

On the everyday player side of things, is it really very hard to think of a 35 year-old Adrian Gonzalez’ performance declining a little? On the other side of the diamond, it’s also conceivable to think that Justin Turner could regress in his age 31 season. Turner played a career-high 126 games last year. He’s only played 100 games three times.

At shortstop, I think Corey Seager is going to be really good, but he’ll also be a rookie and is bound to struggle at times. If his defense at shortstop is a little worse than projected, it could have a quiet impact on his value, whether he hits or not.

If Joc Pederson’s true ability is closer to his 2015 second-half performance, you’ll be seeing a lot of Kike Hernandez in center field, which would mean Chase Utley’s presence at second-base would be something you’d have to count on. Craig Edwards of FanGraphs gives all of us some hope that Pederson will be better than this.

Left field is bound this season to be manned by Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Scott Van Slyke. Who knows how those veterans will like to share that much time?

Which brings us to right fielder, Yasiel Puig. Puig’s best-case scenario in the brightest timeline would make him one of the best players in baseball. In a “bad” season last year, Puig sported just a 109 OPS+. If Puig’s OPS+ is 109 again this year, it probably won’t be enough to make-up for the downgrades I described above. If Puig presses with his teammates regressing, it’s at least conceivable to think about a scenario where things fall apart somewhat quickly in 2016.

Right now, Steamers only has five Dodger pitchers projected for more than 1.0 WAR, and one of them is Kenley Jansen — the closer.

A quick note about the darkest timeline — the Dodgers management has made it really hard for a bad 2016 to affect the team’s ability to win in the future. If they haven’t won by 2017 or 2018, it will be time to ask some really tough questions. I believe in what they’re doing long-term, but it does seem that 2016 is more of a dice-roll than recent years while they’ve kept their farm system intact. OK, on to the more fun version of this.

The winning timeline

Honestly, things could break really well for the Dodgers this season.

On the pitching side, Clayton Kershaw is the best one, so that’s really good. Maybe Hyun-jin Ryu comes back and looks like Ryu of old. Behind him, Brett Anderson could have another good year like 2015. Alex Wood looked really good at times with the Braves, and he could gain some consistency too. On the free-agent front, Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda are possibilities.

If the pitching can be pieced-together and the Dodgers can tread water a little above .500 until Ryu and Brandon McCarthy come back (healthy), who knows what kind of a little run the boys in blue could go on?

Hitting-wise, the Dodgers’ offense could be bolstered by Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig performing up above or around their projected numbers. The shortstop and right fielder are not certainties for their own reasons (being a rookie and being Yasiel Puig, respectively), but great performances from both of them would be huge for the Dodgers. Also huge would be continued solid play from Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez at the corners. Along with the three mentioned above, Yasmani Grandal’s standard deviation of performance is a little wider than a lot of guys’. Grandal proved he could be really good last season, but an injury set him back late in the year. When he’s healthy and clicking, he can provide rare pop from the catcher position.

If Joc Pederson is able to be something even close to the first-half player he was last season, the Dodgers would be able to use Kike Hernandez at second-base. Again, you should read Edwards’ piece and be heartened. Keeping Chase Utley’s at-bats as intermittent as possible would be a key to the brightest timeline for the Dodgers.

Good play by whoever is in left field and a trade or something to open the outfield log-jam would both be key aspects to a happy Dodgers season. They haven’t happened yet, but they have to at some point, right?

Health is a big deal, but I feel like we’re going to find out what kind of players Puig, Pederson, and Seager really are. Is Yasiel a superstar or just a good player who is polarizing? Is Seager a respectable third-baseman or can he be a star shortstop for a few years to start his career? Will Pederson’s first-half be indicative of his career or was it just a flash in the pan? Can Grandal be good down the stretch? If those questions are answered favorably, and the Dodgers’ rotation can just hang-on through the first half, the Dodgers could make a big second-half push, get themselves into the playoffs, and make a plucky run at it. It’s baseball, so I guess anything could happen — including a World Series. Some things would definitely have to break right as things stand though.

While ZiPS projections don’t seem to be out yet, Steamers projections are. Here’s a link for the Dodgers hitters. 

But don’t tell me to calm down!

Maybe this should be a separate post, but I’m also sick of some of the Dodger follows telling me for the last month to calm down, as division rivals add players and the Dodgers fail to trade for a crazy person/abuser (thank goodness) and agree to terms with a 34 year-old pitcher who fails his physical.

Other teams in the National League West will be better in 2016. As currently constructed, the Dodgers won’t be. I absolutely believe that management is making the right moves for the long-term viability of the club, but if you tell me I can’t be nervous for what’s going to happen in 2016, then you’re telling me not to be someone who’s emotionally impacted by the sport.

Is this the future of baseball?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1BdQcJ2ZYY

Not a world I want to live in. Actually, by definition I wouldn’t live in that world.

The world I live in is still somewhat subjective. A major fun part of being a fan is watching games, noticing what’s going on, and comparing it to the numbers — especially in baseball. How do those numbers do at predicting the number of wins a team will have at the end of the season?

In other words, team projections are only slightly useful. If you're projected for 70 wins, then team is bad. But 77+, you could contend.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) December 26, 2015

@EephusBlue it’s entirely ‘normal’ for a team projected to go .500 to win 90. you’re projecting 40 players, each interaction adds noise.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) December 26, 2015

Noise. In an offseason that’s seen a lot of it, the Dodgers haven’t made much.

And I guess here’s my point. In a time when fans are being placed in a “we trust the ownership making good long term decisions” vs. “these stat geeks have no clue how to win now” paradigm, why can’t I be somewhere in-between as a fan? Why can’t I be hedging my bets on a 2016 season that is looking like the Dodgers will have less overall talent than in 2015, and AT THE SAME TIME feel good about the future of the club? Does this make me some kind of bad fan if I am feeling nervous about 2016?

I’m not saying I’ve thrown in the towel. there’s still lots that can happen between now and March. Or June. Or September. What I do know is that I felt better about their chances last year at this time than I do right now. Maybe I’ll be wrong on both counts. I hope so.