Opening Day. The excitement. The pageantry.

The unknown.

After Saturday, the Cal Poly football team and their triple option offense could either be rolling downhill with momentum toward a second consecutive FCS playoff birth, or have their playoff train careening off the tracks just as they leave the station.

Their opening game opponent, San Diego, may be an improved team compared with the team they fielded in last year’s opener, when they hung with Cal Poly for about three quarters. Because of that, Cal Poly may be in for a closer game than the blowout that last year’s opener turned out to be. Here are five things to watch for if you’re a Cal Poly fan:

Junior Vince Moraga (15) will be leading Cal Poly’s triple option on Saturday. By Owen Main

Quarterback Play

OK, the quarterback situation is settled – for now. Junior Vince Moraga is starting, and it was probably the right move. Still, after multiple years of solid play from last year’s senior, Andre Broadous, Moraga has big shoes to fill. If Mustang fans expect Moraga to come out and run the offense with the same targeted efficiency as Broadous right away, they’ll be left wanting.

Moraga will develop his own style and play his own game — and it might take a few series, or a few quarters, for fans to get used to the pace of the Vince Moraga-led triple option.

Expect Moraga to make the safe call most of the time, not turn the ball over, and keep the offense moving progressively. Unlike Broadous, who was a dynamic load to tackle, Moraga will be more like a point guard in basketball — working to get the ball to his other skill players in space. A scrum-half in rugby might be another apt comparison, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Moraga is experienced and head coach Tim Walsh is depending on him to make the right read every time in order to keep Cal Poly’s triple-option offensive machinery running smoothly.

Defensive Secondary

The defensive secondary lost only Nico Molino from last season’s group. Molino led FCS in interceptions at one point early last season, so his loss will definitely be felt. That being said, cornerback might be the Mustangs’ deepest position. Vante Smith-Johnson joins Bijon Simoodi to make a pair of cornerbacks with starting experience. The cornerback position is so deep, in fact, that New Mexico State transfer Dominique Love (brother of Cal Poly basketball player Maliik Love) wasn’t even listed on the depth chart as of Thursday night.

Last year, safeties Dave Douglas and Alex Hubbard impressed me a lot in how well they were able to tackle and support the linebackers in the run game. They’ll have to do just as well in pass coverage this year in the pass-happy Big Sky.

The Big Sky Conference is known for teams that can throw the ball successfully. To control the ball, the clock, and the game, Cal Poly will have to defend the pass more than anything. Big plays (or lack thereof) in the defensive secondary are something a team trying to make the playoffs may desperately need.

SagaTuitele (left) is now the sole offensive coordinator for the Mustangs. Tuitele returns for his fifth season. Cal Poly has three new coaches on their staff in 2013. By Owen Main

Who’s toting the rock?

Between Deonte Williams, Kristaan Ivory, Andre Broadous and Akaninyene Umoh, Cal Poly had a generally balanced rushing attack a year ago.

Ivory and Umoh return this season, but it will be of interest to see if Moraga can put up big rushing numbers a’la Broadous. Broadous didn’t pile up ridiculously huge rushing numbers, but was always a threat at the goal line. With a much smaller build, look for Moraga to be much more willing to hand the ball off inside the opponents’ five yard-line.

I would expect Ivory and Umoh to probably carry the ball at least 40 times between the two of them. Cole Stanford, who rushed the ball only 38 times all of last year, may see additional carries as well. The really interesting thing to see will be who else steps-in. Will Moraga gain solid yards? Will Brandon Howe, Kori Garcia, Kenny Mitchell, or Kevin Porsche get a few carries and an opportunity to impress?

By the time the season is over, I can’t see how Ivory doesn’t average at least 100 yards-plus per game, but if Cal Poly is going to be anything close to the offense they were a year ago, at least a few other guys have to step up and carry the ball well on a consistent basis, or teams will start to key on Ivory, who is best when he can get to an edge.

Injuries

Word is that up to seven starters might be out for Cal Poly on Saturday. If I were creating a perfect upset recipe for an upset game, that would probably be the first and most abundant ingredient. Pay attention to who is playing and, maybe more importantly, who isn’t.

Defensive Front-7

The biggest strength of Cal Poly this year is probably the defensive front-7. Defensive tackle Sullivan Grosz has NFL aspirations and will be the leader of this group that will be tough up the middle. In their playoff loss to Sam Houston State last season, Cal Poly’s defense held the Bearkats to 241 yards of total offense, including only 153 yards rushing. SHSU averaged 268 yards rushing and 358 total yards per game on offense throughout the year. Their defense will again be a strength.

Along with Grosz, the defensive line has some horses in Jake Irwin, Andrew Alcaraz, Chris Judge, Chris Lawrence, and Wesley Flowers. New starter Cameron Ontko joins returning starting linebackers Nick Dzubnar and Johnny Millard to round-out a solid group. Grosz was the only Mustang selected first-team all Big-Sky in the preseason, but this group may turn out to be one of the deepest and best front-7’s in the conference.

Cal Poly vs. San Diego

Alex G. Spanos Stadium at Cal Poly

Kickoff – 4:05 PM

Radio – ESPN Radio 1280

Internet Video – WatchBigSky.com

Which leads us to this week’s big story going into tomorrow’s game — the suspension of starting safety Alex Hubbard. Hubbard, a junior, is one of the hardest hitters on the defense and has laid a number of opposing receivers and running backs out all year. When other teams start fast, it usually takes just a few big tackles from the defense before opposing offenses start to do things like drop passes and over-think cuts and decisions.

Cal Poly’s physicality is a huge advantage they have had all year. And losing Hubbard will hurt.

Here’s a video of the play courtesy of the Big Sky. The first play, which is away from the ball, is the one Hubbard was suspended for. The second one, which the conference reviewed but did not take action on, is the reason why Cal Poly will miss Hubbard.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5I1ocV9TdU

Alex Hubbard rushes to help tackle a Wyoming ball carrier earlier in the season. Photo by Owen Main

I asked a few questions of the Big Sky and got answers REALLY quickly.

Have suspensions like this happened this year in the Big Sky?

The answer to this question is yes. Two players have been suspended by the conference prior to this week. Apparently this week –when they suspended four players, including Hubbard — was particularly bad.

How long has the Big Sky been suspending players like this?

I have been told the conference has been cracking down on plays like this for about four years now.

While Cal Poly is still the favorite in today’s game, there are usually a number of factors that contribute to an upset. I don’t think today’s is a game Cal Poly loses, but I do think it follows their pattern from this year. That means it would be closer than the Mustangs want it to be — especially in the first half.