Alex Smith’s benching sealed San Francisco’s fate. By John Martinez Pavliga (originally posted to Flickr as IMG_7552), via Wikimedia Commons

As the 2011 San Francisco 49ers walked off the field of Candlestick Park after losing a close NFC championship game to the eventual champion New York Giants, you could tell that although they had lost, this team had a demeanor about it. It seemed clear that they would be contenders for a long time. They had something to prove and it prove it they did by going into Lambeau Field in week-one and beating the Packers. During their first eight games, the 49ers went 6-2 under quarterback Alex Smith, including Smith going 18-19 while throwing for 232 yards and three touchdowns on a Monday night game against the Arizona Cardinals. Everything seemed to be going well for the 49ers, until during their bye week when they got the news that Alex Smith had suffered a concussion.  They opted to sit Smith for the week 10 matchup against the St. Louis Rams and start second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers and the Rams tied the game and questions began to surface whether or not Smith would return as the starting quarterback.

Kaepernick gave the 49ers a dual threat and skill-set that Smith did not have. Coach Jim Harbaugh liked this option very much and named Kaepernick the starter for the remainder of the season. Kaepernick thrived as the starting quarterback and had the 49ers a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

This decision must have left Smith wondering his value to the team and many wondered if he would accept his new role as a backup. Smith, being the team player that he is, took the new role with grace and watched Kaepernick take his team all the way to the Super Bowl. Under Kapernick, including the playoffs, the 49ers had a record of 7-3-1 and under Alex Smith the 49ers went 6-2.

I never agreed with coach Harbaugh’s decision to bench Smith for Kaepernick, but I guess that’s why I’m not coaching in the NFL. I always felt like it was completely unfair for Alex Smith. The guy led the team to the NFC championship game and if not for a few dumb fumbles, the 49ers would have made the Super Bowl. With Alex Smith. Not to mention, he was 6-2 in the first eight games with 13 touchdowns and only five interceptions. It was a risky move by Harbaugh, one that did pan out as the 49ers did reach the Super Bowl only to come up short.

How ironic is it that the drive that could have sealed the 49ers Super Bowl dreams, came down to a few red-zone plays where Kaepernick just needed to make a good throw? The whole game he was missing key throws that could have changed the game, for instance, his interception. He could have easily dumped it off to his running back who was wide open rather than throw the ball down the field, very high over Randy Moss’s head into the arms of Ed Reed. The 49ers’ performance was lackluster in the first half and I believe without the very odd power outage, the Ravens would have destroyed them at the end of the game just like they did in the first half, but props to the 49ers for making a comeback and the game interesting. Kaepernick and the 49ers had an incredible year and will probably win a Super Bowl in the next few years. But I think the 49ers were destined to lose this season from the moment Alex Smith was replaced as the starter. Karma bites, and the 49ers found that out the hard way.

I needed to hide in my proverbial cave before entering back into the world of sports. The media’s recycled replay has stolen anything and everything fresh to talk about. For days I’ve thought about Super Bowl XLVII and come up with zilch. Nada.

I scratched on a lined sheet of paper a few ideas, but each fell flat.  Ray Lewis retiring was too obvious. Joe Flacco’s soon-be and well-earned mega contract was too recycled.  Jim Harbaugh’s over-conservatism on offense. Ah, now there’s a hard hitter, but it is too early to say if that’s really a problem yet.  And the next landing spot for Alex Smith is boring.

The media spinsters have stolen every crumb worth discussing from a football-related standpoint. ESPN is truly the evil empire. But Dan Patrick and his Fox Sports getaway aren’t void of such a name tag either.

When thinking back to what was ultimately a pretty damn good game between two brothers on opposing sidelines, I’m left dumbfounded at the obvious: the game seemed rigged. Yes, rigged—at least on some level it was.

When the lights went out it was a little too weird. Too cliche of a  story line. Like a classic horror spot on with the scene when the lights flicker and the down and out(the 49ers) are tested to their ultimate limit.

A league as pretentious as the celebrity driven NFL, in my opinion, is not far removed from making this sort of thing happen. Albeit it’s out-there to think so, sure. But absolutely impossible? I don’t think so.

Seventeen points were put up in a four minute stretch following the return of the lights, by a team that mustered only 6 in all of the first half. I timed that. It took me four minutes this morning to brush my teeth and tie my tie. By the time I put my shoes and socks on, it had gone from 4 minutes to 6, 7, maybe 8 or 9. In half the amount of time it took me to brush my teeth, tie my tie and put my shoes on, the 49ers offense magically unveiled 17 points on a defense playing out of their minds?

Give. Me. A. Break.

That was a storyline straight from the Goodell playbook. And it was well-timed. It was a strategic move attempting to draw back the league’s growing disenchanted fan base.  Super Bowl XLVII had the lowest rating in 7 years.

Yes, the lowest.

This means there is a chance for other popular leagues like Major League Baseball or the NBA to reclaim what once was a more equitable balance of American sports power.

Beyonce’s halftime show was… interesting. Maybe it should have had a rating on it though. By Beelover9481 (Beyoncé Knowles), via Wikimedia Commons

Inception, Leonardo Dicaprio, remember? Goodell needs a story to manipulate the masses, draw us back, make us live, eat and and pray the game of football, but it’s not working. The media has been muted on the issue. After all, they are more invested in the NFL’s success than anyone. We’re slowly, but surely, tiring of the league’s ridiculous rule changes and unlawful bounties.

And then there was Beyonce Z at halftime.  Oh God, her crotch grabs and tongue licks were enough to make a five year old dream about making love. And that’s just gross. I threw up in my mouth with each and every one of her ego-maniacal dance moves. I would have rather seen Meatloaf beat box half-naked in a pair of high heels. Her manifestation of what some people define to be music, was as bad if not worse than the infamous Janet Jackson nip-slip. Soft core porn has become a byproduct of an NFL clearly grasping at straws.

In 30 years, I believe, the NFL will cease to exist as we know it for a variety of reasons. It could be because of an alien invasion. Or simply people moving on. Some other steroid-hungry sport will come along and strike our fancy. Like Glass Eating. Ten wine glasses wins. Most blood determines league MVP.

Whether or not such a prediction is true, you can count on this. Tomorrow you will wake up, you will tune into ESPN and listen to whatever ESPN anchor spout the same nonchalant stupidity in a neverending diatribe of bafoonery. NFL, NFL, NFL. All NFL.

Turn the TV off. Have a conversation with yourself in the mirror. Discuss the implications of growing a beautiful beard (or not; or if you’re a lady, the implications of growing leg hair) and join James Harden in his ultimate quest.

There are a number of glorious beards in football too, after all.

Alex Smith did the right thing by telling doctors he was concussed, but it could cost him a lot of money in the offseason. By BrokenSphere (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Then Alex Smith got hit. In the head. Again.

He “turned himself in” to team doctors as the NFL has been encouraging its players to do. He hasn’t seen the field since.

Instead, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh turned to second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has a rifle arm — noticeably better (on TV even) than 90 percent of NFL starting quarterbacks. He’s also really fast. I’ll get to that in a minute.

Harbaugh keeping Kaepernick in the lineup instead of bringing back Smith (once he was cleared) was easy to criticize. The list of quarterbacks who win or even get to the Super Bowl in their first season as a starter is really short. No matter what Harbaugh thought, I didn’t think San Francisco stood a chance with a second-year player and first-time starter. I thought Harbaugh’s lack of patience with Alex Smith was going to hurt the team’s chances and maybe help to even prematurely close their championship window. After amazing improvement at Stanford and now with the 49ers, I thought Harbaugh had finally made a decision that was going to blow up in his face. Benching a guy who was playing like Smith couldn’t have been the right move, could it?

On Saturday, Kaepernick diced-up the Packers like a slap-chop. Green Bay had no answer for the read option or Kaepernick’s ability to find open receivers down field and get the ball to their hands on a rope. When the second-year player from Nevada ran for his second touchdown that put the 49ers up 31-24 in the third quarter, a lead they would not relinquish, I though, “My God! He’s Michael Vick with a bigger body and more accurate throwing arm.”

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWRyj5cHIQA

I stand by my assessment, and I want to say I’m sorry. Apologies, Jim Harbaugh. Apparently you saw him in practice for a year and a half and knew what you were doing. I shouldn’t have second-guessed you. The 49ers’ offense looked as dynamic and exciting as any I’ve seen recently. If the NFC Championship game was at Candlestick, I’d predict your team as the clear-cut favorites. As it stands I’ll probably pick them to win the game on the road anyway — unless I think too hard about Ben Roethlisberger.

In Roethlisberger’s first year as a starter (2004), the Steelers went 13-0 under Big Ben in the regular season. Roethlisberger was a revelation. His team earned a first-round bye and won their divisional playoff game before losing the AFC Championship to New England, who won the Super Bowl that year. Kaepernick has done a Roethlisberger-like job so far — a performance good enough to win me over on his coach’s decision no matter what happens next week.

Kaepernick’s divisional win was definitely one for the record-books, putting him up alongside rookies like Roethlisberger. To win a conference championship game on the road after only 9 NFL starts, though, would be nothing short of legendary.

There is a black line slicing right through the front of Jim Harbaugh’s cranium on my TV. What does it mean? What symbolic power does the black faded line possess?

Can Alex Smith still lead the 49ers to the promised land or is it time to move on? By John Martinez Pavliga (originally posted to Flickr as IMG_7505) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

I’m ghetto like that.

But grills, plastic furniture and silver bullets aside, I’m possessed by the image of a focused, well-formed Jim Harbaugh split in two. It has to mean something.

The Niners are gelling. With a record of 7-2-1 they are dominating the NFC West. They are so good, their back up quarterback (blessed with so many outlandishly-gifted offensive weapons) sliced and diced Da Bears defense to the tune of 10.3 yards a play in the first half of a 32-7 Monday Night blowout. And their offense isn’t half as good as their league-leading defense, which allows a paltry 13.4 points.

But sometimes when things are going this well, there are issues on the horizon. Issues that might explain the humorous coach’s two-sided face. Like what to do with Alex Smith.

It’s not that Smith has been Pro-Bowl worthy, or that he is the clear-cut leader of a team which was 6-2-1 with him as the starter. It’s that Smith has been the cookie-cutter team quarterback, taking pay cuts, while playing fluidly efficient in Harbaugh’s system. Through nine games the eight year veteran is having the best season of his career, boasting a 104.1 quarterback rating to go along with thirteen touchdown to five interceptions. He may not be a game changer, but he’s a great game controller. And that should not be taken lightly.

This, after last year’s run to the NFC championship game, was finally Smith’s team. It was a year when Harbaugh would let-loose the reigns and allow the twenty-eight year old underachiever room to operate and grow into his own, outside the sterile conservatism of a run-first, Aker-legged offense.  But when Harbaugh has attempted to let him loose he’s failed, throwing 3 interceptions to 0 touchdowns in a blowout loss to the champion Giants on October 14th. So the word on the street is that a quarterback change is in the near future.

The athletic, fire-throwing, Colin Kaepernick was accurate, mobile, and brought a sense of passion to the position on Monday night. Not to mention, he got Vernon Davis involved to the tune of six receptions and a touchdown. The star tight end had caught just nine balls his previous four games.

Davis’s exuberant man crush after the win in favor of Kaepernick was clear.  A resonance I’m sure sent shock waves in and through the entire team.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf6lwqBwuSY

While a black line splits through Jim Harbaugh’s heart, so it does to mine. We all know the way to a man’s heart is through food, television and beer. And while I may have two of the three locked up, I’m certain to need the third in order to complete the holy triumphant. Olivier will definitely not be the answer this go around.  I’m thinking Westinghouse. I’m thinking Harbaugh is tempted to try out a new device, and if all things fail, he can always go back to the original.

One in thirteen is a percentage of 7.7%. That’s a god damn disaster if you ask me.

One in every thirteen years is like getting laid momentarily before being asked to STOP. You madly reel up the fly, waddle home, flip up a defeat of bluing balls, hit the head, shower the left of the toilet seat, and then lightly rest the hammer with a false sense of pride.

Once in the last thirteen years the 49ers have shown promise, and a prostituting set of red and gold arise with a childish banter? With biceps made of molded Play dough? Puny stiffy’s the size of a Chihuahua’s?

Just ask Alex Smith about the Swiss cheese sea of Niner’ nation. Who, over a tumultuous career in the bay, was blamed by every side-cocked-hat-sporting teen and fat bellied, overworked office copier from San Jose to Sacramento for a disastrous ownership, fickle fan base and cohort of condemned know-it-all coaches and offensive coordinators.

But after aptly delivering in last weekend’s win over the Saints with two beautifully well-timed and strong throws, Smith is celebrated by Niner’ Nation, as if each and every one of them “knew it all along.”

Despite the one blaring factoid in relation to Smith’s erratic play — that he played for six offensive coordinators and three coaches in six years — the lack of sport education from most of San Franciscans was and is the reason they missed that  point of immense gravity.

But magically, here comes Jim Harbaugh.

After his signing last January an inoculation spread among lukewarm fans like a microorganism. It was called idiocy; Idiociticosis, a protective coating endorsed by the franchise to diminish criticism and critique.

And now, just one week shy from a game against the red hot New York Giants, a team similar to the 2007 Super Bowl team but built with a nastier set of freakish receivers, the same super-duper “I got 49 problems but the Pack aint’ one” concoction of clowns are idiotically brushing aside the Giants because of a mediocre mid-season win AT HOME against them? Yes, stupidly.

Idiotic point one: Never take lightly a team this sizzling with a 4th quarter closer like Eli Manning. Hindsight isn’t 20/20, it’s blind.

Idiotic point two: Never ever be so stupid to demean an organization, the Packers, who are 13-1 against you the last fifteen years with cheap one-line replays.

Then we get into last week’s parlay against the New Orleans Saints, who just 5-3 on the road and historically weak on grass outdoors, blew it big-time with six — yes SIX — turnovers in a rumpled 36-32 loss at the hands of the 49ers.

Wait, hold on. Before I even think about the “glory” of defeating a team centered on the great Drew Brees, let me get one thing seriously straight, did I say SIX turnovers?

Six turnovers and the 49ers hadn’t finished the job in the 2nd quarter? They flailed like a fish out of water, looked like children, green and lucky, scooted with their pants on fire, and escaped the burning building.

Ugly.

Let’s begin with the micromanagement of Jim “Face like I have an angry Hemorrhoid” Harbaugh, whose force-fed slow and methodical run straight up the middle on a 3rd and 3 approach to offense is blander than a saltine cracker. Whose shackles around a blooming offense with a heavy handed dictator’s force, is shrinking the 9ers offensive testosterone. Despite the offensive weaponry of dynamic athletes like Vernon Davis, Mike Crabtree, Frank Gore, and the strong armed Alex Smith, Harbaugh’s incessantly fallen in love with kicker, David Akers, and stunted any, if any at all, offensive relevance with a drum hum one dimensional front that will not work for long.

No matter what many speculate, mostly, a Super Bowl team must manage to push the opposition on both sides of the ball.

The 49ers have some of this in their defense, the same reason the Packers this year are left wading in last year’s rotted glory with a defense made of powder puffers.

But a game-winning drive to knock off a team with six turnovers is not glorious, it’s lucky, like swinging a bat with a blindfold and hitting a grand slam.

For some of you out there, being the Troy Glaus “powerhouse” of football franchises is enough. But for me, I’d rather riddle to the roof a complex infrastructure of dominance like a Matt Kemp or Albert Pujols.

Never pick an apple early off the tree. It’s green and overly tart, taste like a lemon with a bitter skin. The 49ers are seasons away from being considered a dominate competitor.

So let it rest. Let you team be.

Revel with the understanding that the Giants have been here before and your team hasn’t, that the Packers will be there next year with an upgraded defense, the Patriots with Tom Brady, the Steelers a healthy Big Ben, Saints with a bone to pick, improved Ravens offense and the Texans a year more mature.

Eyes will be glued to flat-screens nationwide for the entire weekend come the first kickoff Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Rounds of golf will be cancelled. Agendized voyages to The Home Depot and Costco will be shoved aside. America’s dominant sports passion is nearing its penultimate moment. Adjectives attempting to describe will ring in hyperbole and previously planned objectives will mire below the paramount. One item takes precedence over everything this time of year: the NFL Divisional Playoffs are a can’t-miss – a must-see.

New Orleans @ San Francisco, Saturday @ 1:30pm PST, FOX

“Supposed” unbiased on-lookers seem to tab the Niners as the “most complete” team in the playoffs. I need coke-bottle specs to be able to focus on that description realistically, seeing as the Niners’ offense seems to stall against the few legit defenses they have faced, as well as even mediocre defenses for that matter.

This tends to happen when San Fran’s jumbo personnel – power scheme is stymied on first and second downs, and third and medium plus becomes a remote prospect for Alex Smith. A pee-wee football offense only takes you so far, and a conference championship game, unfortunately for Niner fans, isn’t that place.

Turnovers, special teams play and “x-factors” will be be the difference. The fundamental questions become – do you trust Drew Brees or Alex Smith with turnovers? Easy answer – Brees. Who has the special teams and xfactor-advantage? Easy answer, Darren Sproles over Ted Ginn, Jr.

The Niner defense takes a stand that ends up becoming too little – too late, and San Francisco’s offense tries to match the touchdowns scored by the Saints with field goals. In what should be the last game played in the wind-tunneled, seagull-infested dump known as Candlestick, New Orleans eventually separates themselves in victory, 27-16. Give this storied franchise a new stadium already.

Denver @ New England, Saturday @ 5:00pm PST, CBS

Denver will try to make the game shorter early, but will fail with the inability to convert first downs on 3rd and medium-plus after conservative first and second down calls. Tom Brady loves the middle of the field, as Rob Gronkowski to the post and Wes Welker on the crossing route underneath will gain the Pats field position. Denver’s chances are dismal at the half and will become non-existent deep into the 3rd quarter, as New England will lead comfortably.

In what will eventually be only a B+ day for the Pats due to the stubborn Denver defense, New England will manage the clock with first downs after the ball is punted to them time and time again due to the ineptitude of the Broncos offense, and will end up with a somewhat notable 28-10 victory.

Tebow, while not in victory, will righteously justify his creator by thanking the Almighty for the learning experience. As soon as the next Super Bowl Champion is done celebrating and spring camp is soon to open, the “Tebow polarization” question is still the NFL lead.

Houston @ Baltimore, Sunday @ 10:00am PST, CBS

There are a lot of people picking a Houston upset, yet the funny thing is, it is based on absolutely nothing other than a thirst for the unforeseen outcome. The bottom line is, Arain Foster alone won’t be enough to save the rookie-captianed cattle.

Baltimore has every advantage you can think of: home field, playoff experience, defense, quarterback play, and even the running back factor is a push at best for Houston. But even if Foster out-produces Ray Rice, there are simply too many disadvantages for the Texans to overcome.

While not quite a blow-out at the mid-point, the Ravens will come out after lunch and take control, outscoring Houston from the half somewhere in the range of 17-7, and coast into the AFC Championship game, 27-13. Baltimore in January is no place for a third-string, rookie quarterback. That’s a rule.

New York @ Green Bay, Sunday @ 1:30pm PST, FOX

The New York Giants can run the ball. The New York Giants can play in the elements. Eli Manning has solidified himself as an “elite” quarterback, which he so desperately tried to assert himself as to the media before the season got underway. But can Manning match the highest-tier of “elite level” that Aaron Rodgers is capable of in his own back yard?

Considering The Pack gets back from injury: starting guard Brian Bulaga, veteran tackle Chad Clifton and go-to receiver Greg Jennings; picking against Green Bay in the confines of Lambeau Field would tend towards the suicidal, I’m not looking to swallow cyanide just yet after only 31 years.

That being said, two weeks of rest for most of Green Bay’s starters may result in some rust for the favorite, as I wouldn’t be surprised if New York climbed out to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead early. But in the end, the frozen tundra, Sunday night momentum and juggernaut capabilities gets the Packers by with a defense that bends but doesn’t break, 31-20.

* * * * * * *

Baltimore @ New England and New Orleans @ Green Bay – could you ask for two better conference championship games? I guess you could if you are a fan of the teams picked to get beat? But that’s why… they play… the games.

Nothing is that easy to predict, right? Nothing is set in stone, right? Anyone’s crystal ball could end up being a bit foggy from time to time after all. But after a wild card weekend in which all the highest seeds advanced for the first time since god was an infant, the expected will again come to fruition.

Its time to separate the men from the boys. Favorites will rule and the conference championship games next weekend will feature those who we thought would end up remaining afterall. Yeaaa yeaaa Coach Green. Back off. The royalty check is already in the mail.