Will another first-time champion be cutting down the nets at the Honda Center on Saturday? By Owen Main

Last season, Cal Poly proved that seeding doesn’t have to matter in the Big West Tournament, especially if you get hot at the right time. This year, the Mustangs are seeded in the same place, but upstart UC Davis earned the one-seed and numbers 2-4 are perennial top-four teams. What does the path to the tournament title look like for each team?

Jim Les has done a spectacular job this season. UC Davis only lost two games in conference play. By Owen Main

1) UC Davis

The Aggies were the biggest surprise in the conference this season. Prior to this season, UC Davis had finished in eighth place in the conference three of the past four years. With hindsight, we might have seen their big push coming. Two years ago, they finished 9-9 in conference play and the four seniors on this year’s team have all been key cogs in the past.

Corey Hawkins is the Big West’s player of the year in 2014-15, and Josh Ritchart is a really tough matchup for some of the conference’s best teams. This season, the Aggies went 14-2 in conference play, including wins in 10 of their last 11 games.

They were rewarded with Cal State Northridge in the first round — a team that was a few plays away from winning last season’s tournament.

Keys to victory – Davis has given fans no reason to doubt them, winning close games at home and on the road. To win the conference tournament, they’ll have to maintain their hot shooting. One key will be how well J.T. Adenrele and Josh Ritchart can defend the paint, especially in a potential matchup with a team like UC Irvine or UCSB. Davis is also the second-farthest campus away from the Honda Center, making games against Los Angeles-area teams more like road games. What will their fan support be like as the tournament progresses?

“Big Al” Williams has a super-mature post game that is fun to watch. UCSB is going to be a tough out this year. By Owen Main

2) UC Santa Barbara

UCSB has had an impressive last few weeks. The Gauchos, who played preseason games at Oregon, Oregon State, and Kansas, are battle tested and playing probably their best basketball of the season. They come into the tournament with a five-game winning streak, including wins over top-seeded UC Davis and third-seeded UC Irvine.

Alan Williams continues to be a beast in the middle, averaging 17 points and 12 rebounds. While Williams is the centerpiece, the key to their chances might be junior Michael Bryson. Standing at a long 6’4″, Bryson joined Williams on the all-conference first team this year because of his play on both ends of the floor. Bryson averages 12 points per game and can slash or spot-up for the corner three-pointer.

Keys to victory – As long as Alan Williams stays out of foul trouble — he fouled-out in last year’s first round blowout loss to Cal Poly — UCSB is in just about every game they play. That said, their shooting from the outside has been sneaky-good and might a reason for head coach Bob Williams to feel more comfortable going into this year’s conference tournament. Conference-leading UC Davis shot an incredible 45 percent from 3-point range this season AS A TEAM, but UCSB’s top-four 3-point shooters combined for a respectable 38.6 percent, and they are streaky.

If UCSB wins this tournament, shooting from players like Bryson, freshman Gabe Vincent, and senior Zalmico Harmon will be a huge deal.

Mamadou Ndiaye is a major presence in any game he plays in. His health will affect the style UCI plays in the tournament. By Owen Main

3) UC Irvine

Last year’s regular season champs and this year’s conference favorite, UC Irvine and head coach Russell Turner are still searching for their first trip to the NCAA Tournament.  The Anteaters are probably the deepest team in the conference. Eight or nine of their guys could and would start on most other Big West rosters.

That said, Irvine is also somewhat enigmatic. Their best-known player, 7’6″ Mamadou Ndiaye, has been injured for much of conference play. With Ndiaye in the game, UC Irvine plays a little slower out of their zone defense, but it extremely difficult to score on in the paint.

With Ndiaye out of the game, Irvine can pick up their tempo some and play with a better rhythm at times.

A team that has lost two of their final three games in conference play, the Anteaters will probably rely on senior Will Davis III. The All-Big West first team selection has been a steadying force for UCI over the past few seasons and will need to have three very good games if UCI is to survive and advance.

Keys to victory – The ability of Luke Nelson, Alex Young, and Travis Souza to control tempo when they need to is key. Shot selection and turnovers are huge keys for the Anteaters. Teams will be scheming hard against UCI’s size, but at the end of the day, taking good shots and maintaining an offensive rhythm will go a long way toward setting-up their big guys on defense on the other end. A potential second-round matchup between UCI and UCSB would be as good as any recent Big West Championship Game in terms of quality and talent of the teams involved.

Dan Monson will need some improved play from senior Tyler Lamb if Long Beach State is going to make a serious run. By Owen Main

4) Long Beach State

Long Beach State is a top-four seed. Of course they are, they’re Long Beach State. Dan Monson’s team hasn’t been quite as consistent this year as years past, but they have a senior first-team all-conference point guard and enough talent to do all kinds of damage.

The big question-mark remains their front-court play. David Samuels is second on the team, scoring 10.5 points per game, but the rotation I saw in their game against Cal Poly was more matching with a coach who was trying to figure out who else was going to play in the post.

Their non-conference schedule was brutal once again. They played Kansas State, UCLA, Texas, St. John’s, Syracuse, and Louisville before conference play even started. Once Big West play began, Long Beach State was a fireball, winning eight of their first nine conference games.

Keys to victory – All eyes are on Mike Caffey — for good reason — but what about former UCLA transfer Tyler Lamb? Lamb, who was a heralded recruit at UCLA out of Madre Dei, is third on the 49ers in scoring on the season, but has been underwhelming in conference play. The senior has been in and out of Dan Monson’s starting lineup, only managing seven minutes in a loss at Cal Poly. Lamb’s numbers and minutes continued to dwindle in the second half of conference play. In thier final game of the regular season, Lamb was back in the 49ers starting lineup. In order for Long Beach State to make a serious run in this tournament, Lamb is going to have to be the yang to Caffey’s yin. Either player can take over a game at any time. If they can finally figure out how to flow together, Long Beach State could be very dangerous. If not, a first-round exit against an improving Hawai’i team is a very real possibility.

Benjy Taylor has done a great job after what his program went through right before the season began. Hawai’i is a dangerous team in Anaheim. By Owen Main

5) Hawai’i

Just days before the season started, the Hawai’i program was in shambles. They lost their best player and coach and beat writer Brian McInnis and I were both pondering what life could be like in ninth place in the Big West.

If Jim Les hadn’t have won coach of the year, I think Hawai’i interim coach Benjy Taylor would have been in the running. The Rainbow Warriors beat Colorado and Nebraska, and lost by just a point to Wichita State. A crazy frenetic defensive press and some timely scoring helped them to an 8-8 record in conference play.

Four Rainbow Warriors averaged between 12.1 and 12.5 points per game in conference play, so it’s not as if other teams can just key on one guy. If they could key on a few, I think it would be 6’11” center Stefan Jankovic and swing-man Aaron Valdes. Guards Isaac Fleming and Garrrett Nevels give Hawai’i a pair of quick guards who provide relentless defense and get open shots because of the style they play.

Hawai’i hasn’t fared very well in the Big West Tournament since joining the conference a few years ago. Maybe, with the pressure off, this is the year they make a little noise.

Keys to victory – Hawai’i needs to control the tempo in order to come out with a tournament victory. Long Beach State has never shied away from high-scoring games, so this 4-5 matchup could be the game to watch in the first round. The other key for Hawai’i will be getting great half-court offense from their leading scorer, Aaron Valdes. Valdes’ numbers dropped-off somewhat in conference play, but that allowed Hawai’i to utilize its greatest strength — the unknown. Along with Cal Poly, Hawai’i is just not a team I’d want to play in this year’s tournament… .

Taylor Johns is a star in the Big West. Can his supporting cast help UC Riverside to a first-round upset? By Owen Main

6) UC Riverside

Behind junior Taylor Johns, UC Riverside was always going to be improved this year. Transfer Jaylen Bland has raised their level even higher. The junior who spent his freshman year as a Murray State Racer before transferring to a Junior College last season was second on the team in scoring and won the Big West’s Newcomer of the Year. Bland averaged 15.5 points, almost five rebounds, and shot nearly 40 percent from three-point range.

Johns is a strong leader with a solid all-around game, averaging 16.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per contest. The game-plan against the Highlanders is probably to hold down at least two of their top-three scorers (Johns, Bland, and Steven Thornton), and force the rest of the team to beat you.

Keys to victory – UCR has lost their last three games after beating Cal Poly 48-44 in Riverside. In a 70-63 home win against first-round opponent UC Irvine, the Highlanders got matching 21-point efforts from Bland and Johns while shooting 11 more free throws than UCI (Bland shot 12 all by himself). Irvine’s Will Davis III was held to nine points and only shot two free throws all game.

That game didn’t include UCI BIG man Mamadou Ndiaye, so UCR will have him to contend with, but the formula is still the same. If UCR can get to the free throw line and frustrate UCI, they might have a shot. All that said, I don’t particularly like this first-round matchup for UC Riverside.

A second-team All-Big West Conference player, Brian Bennett can score facing the hoop or with his back to the basket. By Owen Main

7) Cal Poly

After last season, nothing would really surprise me from this group. Everything sets-up exactly like last season for Cal Poly, with the exception of an established leader like Chris Eversley. As a side-note, Eversley told me on my podcast that the Mustangs ran zero/very few offensive plays in last year’s tournament championship run. I’m not sure if that can work with the current team and personnel Cal Poly has to rely on this season.

Listen to Eversley re-live the championship run on the Fansmanship podcast.

Perhaps this tournament can be Brian Bennett’s coming out party. Bennett scored 27 points at UC Davis and has shown he can play with the other talented big men in the conference. Big offensive performances from Ridge Shipley and Reese Morgan could also be a formula for Cal Poly to make a tournament run once again. As unlikely as it is, the fact that everything sets-up similarly could mean some comfort zone for Cal Poly. The Mustangs’ signature win of the season probably came when they beat Colonial Athletic Association champs Northeastern on a neutral floor at Santa Clara.

Cal Poly has a few things going against them. First, they played much of the conference season with only six players getting significant minutes. Second, the Mustangs went 1-7 against the top four teams in the Big West in conference play. Third, question marks abound on this team. Can the offense flow enough to get Ridge Shipley and Reese Morgan open looks from three-point range? Can David Nwaba find ways to get to the basket? It’s been tough sledding for him since he returned from illness as he gets his feet under him. Cal Poly’s defense is pretty consistent, the question will be where scoring is going to come from and how deep their bench actually can go.

Keys to victory – There isn’t one guy on Cal Poly’s team who has to have an awesome game or tournament for the Mustangs to be successful. That said, Joel Awich should be a tough matchup for a lot of Big West power forwards. Awich can shoot it from three-point range and is athletic enough to get his own shot virtually any time. It will be interesting to see whether it’s Awich or Bennett who Cal Poly goes to in the post late in games. Awich had a nice stretch in the middle of conference play, but Bennett probably passes out of a double-team better and has been more consistent throughout the season.

To win a game or multiple games, Cal Poly is going to have to do two or three things at a really high level. What I mean is that in statistical areas like three-point shooting, turnover margin, rebounding, free throw shooting, or just straight-up field goal shooting, Cal Poly will have a tough time winning games where they don’t do at least a few of those things really well. Turnovers are a good place to start. Guards Maliik Love and Shipley will have to hang onto the ball and make good passes and post players Bennett and Awich are going to have to make timely shots for Cal Poly to upend UCSB for the second straight year. Reese Morgan is someone I’ll be watching. Cal Poly’s sixth man for most of the season, Morgan’s career high came two years ago in Isla Vista and he seems like a guy this stage was built for. Again, Big Al and the Gauchos will be harder than ever to get through, but nothing would surprise me this year.

8) Cal State Northridge

The Matadors played Cal Poly in last season’s Big West Tournament final, and returned most of their key players. Along with school record-holders Stephen Maxwell and Stephan Hicks, head coach Reggie Theus returned Tre Hale-Edmurson and got good contribution all season from sophomore Aaron Parks.

Hale-Edmurson, Parks, Landon Drew, and Devonte Elliot are all talented players around the cornerstones of Maxwell and Hicks, but the team just hasn’t been able to put anything together this season. Elliot, a 6’10” senior transfer from Nevada is an important role player. His ability to play alongside Maxwell and Hale-Edmurson down low seems to be something CSUN is still figuring out late in the season.

UC Davis has had an amazing run, but their tournament history is limited. Reggie Theus’ team is experienced and you know he’ll have those guys ready to play in a familiar environment. I’m not going to pick an 8-1 upset, but like the 7-2 game, nothing would surprise me in this league.

Keys to victory – Know thy role.

CSUN has struggled to pass the “body language test” at times this season. Hicks and Maxwell are the focal points, but if Theus can get a few other guys to play just a little cleaner games and make timely shots, CSUN could be dangerous.

Predictions

I’m not going to predict rounds, because that’s silly when teams are re-bracketed after the first round. Also, if you told me the final would be Hawai’i vs. UCSB, I would not be surprised. I’ll repeat myself — anything can happen in Anaheim.

That said, I think UC Davis finds a way to get to the final, where they’ll play UC Irvine. Because of Davis’ relative inexperience in the postseason and Irvine’s ability to defend all over the floor, I’m picking the Anteaters to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in the history of their men’s basketball program. Jim Les and Russell Turner have gone down different paths, but the “new regime” of Big West coaches have all upped the level of play in a conference I believe will have two teams in the NCAA tournament sometime in the next four to eight years.

Cal Poly has relied upon its football and wrestling programs to bring the school some athletic pride.

The men’s and women’s basketball teams have always been like tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum, with programs as fragile as humpty dumpty cracking under pressure.

Any of us who follow Mustang basketball expects little to anything when it comes to the idea of playoff success. That is until this season, as both teams are playing at a high level in the Big West.

The number one seed Lady Mustangs accomplished something last night I have never seen from their basketball program, clutch play. Holding on to a 73-70 win at home over a gritty Cal st. Fullerton team, the Mustangs survived an epic collapse. Up seventeen with nineteen minutes to play, 47-30, the Mustangs went through various four or five minutes offensive droughts.

It is fair to say coach Minmaugh missed last seasons Big West player of the year Melissa Santiago. A sure handed post presence able to score low and get to the free throw during stretches such as these. Now more perimeter oriented, the Lady Mustangs are bound to go through these stretches and survive it with tough nosed defense.

Last night the defense was just not good enough. The Titans collected fourteen offensive rebounds and outscored the Mustangs 21-10 in second chance points.  A couple of threes at the six minute mark by Fullerton, cut the Mustangs lead to six.  Here we go. Depressing.

But reigning Big West Player of the Year Rachel Clancy assumed her rightful place as the best player in the Conference. With the Mustangs up one 71-70 with 1:26 play, Clancy stepped to the line hitting two huge free throws. A couple of missed opportunities to get the hoop by the Titans, assured fans that our Lady Mustangs would advance to the second round of the tournament against seven seeded Pacific. A team that upset two seeded UCSB 49-45 in the first round.

I will say this…if we play the way we played last night we will lose. But I got a feeling, Clancy and co. have survived their scare and have a real run in the tournament within them. Hope is a funny thing, isn’t it?