In the midst of Cal Poly football’s recent run of losses, I have been as disappointed as any fan. When there seems to be “one thing” to point at, it’s easy to point at that thing really hard, with both pointer fingers, and yell and scream.

I try to give myself a day or two after losses, though, before making broad statements — I get as hot and emotional as anyone and stop thinking logically in the midst of a big game. So, with a few days’ perspective here are some things I learned over the weekend in Cal Poly’s 17-13 loss to Northern Arizona.

Dano Graves is brought down by the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks defense. By Owen Main

This year’s team almost certainly won’t make the playoffs

“Turning it around” and making the playoffs is something Cal Poly fans still held out hope for prior to Saturday’s game. Reasonably, the Mustangs could win all the rest of their games and not make it to the playoffs. This is a huge disappointment to fans who saw last year’s team and had high hopes for this season

Injuries suck

Willie Tucker limping onto the field before the game with a cane wasn’t a good sign.

Things have not gone the Mustangs’ way recently, but let’s analyze what’s happened over the first eight games.

If I had told you that Tim Walsh would name a starting quarterback, have that quarterback, his best receiver, and his best running back be out with injuries, would you have given the Mustangs a chance? What about if they used three starters at quarterback during the season?

If I had told you that, despite all of that missed playing time by the best players, Cal Poly would have come within two special teams blunders of beating a Top-10 Montana team on the road and a top-20 Northern Arizona team at home in back-to-back weeks, with a quarterback who wasn’t even on-campus this time last year, you might have called me crazy. To pull all that off would have been a miracle, and Cal Poly almost did it.

Cal Poly fans hoped that the team had enough depth to rebound from losing Vince Moraga and Willie Tucker, but when Kristaan Ivory was pulled out of Saturday’s game after just one carry, it meant that the three most important skill position players on opening day were out with injuries. Vocal offensive line leader Lefi Letuligasenoa was also held out of the second half on Saturday with a knee injury, adding to the Mustangs’ offensive instability.

While injuries are a part of the game, taking away any offense’s three most important skill position players and best offensive lineman would deal a near-fatal blow to any good FCS team — deep or not.

With injuries and quarterback carousel, the margin for error becomes SLIM

What it means is that nobody else can make any mistakes. The defense played amazing football on Saturday, but the crack in the armor was the special teams — again. We’ve covered special teams as an area of weakness for Cal Poly over the past few weeks, so I won’t go into it too much, other than to say that when skill-position depth begins to thin out, so does special teams depth. 

Again, injuries are part of football, but at some point, they add-up.

A Defense is a terrible thing to waste

Because I’m trying to start my week positively, I figured I’d end with the most positive note about Cal Poly — their defense is really, really good. When teams line up and try to run inside the tackles against them, it’s a rarity that they find any room. The Mustangs’ defensive front-seven held the conference’s leading rusher — Zack Bauman — to less than 100 yards. Despite giving up a few big plays, the defensive backfield also played a great game — notching two interceptions on Saturday.

After stopping Montana on three 4th down plays last week, the dominance of the defense was fully on-display at the end of the third quarter on Saturday, when Northern Arizona turned a first-and-goal opportunity at the one yard line into a missed field goal.

Cal Poly fans should take note of how good this defense is and realize that they are doing some things that are really, really special. Over the past four games (a span where the team has gone 1-3), the Mustangs are giving up only 13.75 points per game. That number includes an overtime touchdown scored by Montana.

While the team isn’t coming out on-top as much as fans would like recently, it’s safe to say that the Mustangs’ defense has found its stride.

[See image gallery at www.fansmanship.com]

OK. So I’m going to make this post short and to the point, then give you a few more pictures from last week’s game.

Quarterback Andre Broadous and his decision-making ability will have a lot to do with whether the Mustangs earn an FCS playoff bid this weekend. By David Livingston

If the Mustangs win today, they’re in. If they lose, it’s possible, but not assured.

To win, they have to:

* Not stall drives early — Cal Poly’s defense does better at being opportunistic when it’s rested, so keep them off the field. Especially at elevation, it’s important for the Mustangs’ offense to control the ball and put Northern Arizona on its heels early.

* Win the turnover game. This goes without saying, in every game, but it’s especially true for a Mustangs team that lost two fumbles each at Sacramento State and Eastern Washington. If the Mustangs lose more than one fumble today, it will be really hard for them to win.

* Win the first quarter. While momentum seems to matter less at Spanos, it seems to matter a great deal to the Mustangs when they play on the road. They had the momentum at Wyoming from the outset and held on to win. Momentum-wise, this game will need to be similar.

* Need more Umoh. Cal Poly will need to establish inside runs early to set-up counter plays and pitches. If they get too cute with outside tosses early-on, Northern Arizona could seize the momentum from the outset by shutting off the edge.

* Deonte. However they do it, the Mustangs will have to continue riding Deonte Williams to the playoffs. Williams, a former Norther Arizona Lumberjack, has been their go-to guy all year and will need to remain a workhorse for Cal Poly.

* Big Plays? If Cal Poly hits big plays in the passing game, this one could be not as close as the experts think. Whether they go for those big plays has a lot to do with Andre Broadous’ decision-making and the amount of respect Northern Arizona gives to receivers like Cole Stanford and Willie Tucker.

Photos by David Livingston

[scrollGallery id=60]

Jerry Buss’ kids are either not communicating very well or, more likely, not getting along. By flipchip / LasVegasVegas.com [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Just one week ago, Andy, Luke and I debated whether Mike Brown was right for the job. Andy was fed up. I wasn’t too pleased. But the prevailing thought was that with time, they’d mold themselves into at least a solid playoff squad. How could they not with a roster that chalk-full of stars?

The next day, Brown was fired. Lakers ownership decided that Brown couldn’t be the one to get them to the promised land. The ensuing hiring was even more salacious than the early-season firing. Phil Jackson, who dates Jeanie Buss, was not pleased with how ownership — namely Jeanie’s brother Jim and General Manager Mitch Kupchak — moved forward at midnight on Sunday night with a late-night phone call.

Brian and I talked about the man the Lakers went with instead — Mike D’Antoni — and whether D’Antoni was a better choice than Phil Jackson and a number of other coaches that may or may not have been in the mix. We even compared D’Antoni to other coaches already in the league.

Brian also brought a breakdown of what an 8-team FBS playoff would look like if it started tomorrow. We talked about how great the 20-team FCS playoff system is and it’s movement to 24 teams starting next year.

Milne has been to Flagstaff for a Cal Poly football game at Northern Arizona in the past and gave some insight on the dome, Flagstaff’s elevation, and the fact that Cal Poly football has never beaten an Arizona team before.