All of college basketball is starting conference play over the next week or so. In the Big West, that means that it’s time to re-evaluate and update predictions on the season’s outcomes. Here are a few updated notes about the Big West

Updated Power Rankings

1)UCSB

2)Hawai’i

3) UC Irvine

4) Long Beach State

5) Cal State Northridge

6) Cal Poly

7) UC Davis

8) Cal State Fullerton

9) UC Riverside

Stock Rising

UCSB – With a win over Cal at the Thunderdome, UCSB showed why they are still a favorite. With the retirement of Bob Thomason, the Gauchos have the longest tenured coach in the conference (Bob Williams), and the frontrunner for conference player of the year (Alan Williams). During a pretty impressive preseason, UCSB knocked off Cal at home and beat UNLV, Utah State, and Seattle on the road (among others) during a 9-4 preseason. They walked the line between scheduling tough (playing 3 Pac 12 teams) and getting solid Division 1 wins (the above teams plus San Diego, Western Illinios and Troy). If they can stay healthy, UCSB gives me no reason to think they won’t remain a contender during the conference season.

Hawai’i – Hawai’i may have had the most impressive preseason of anyone in the conference. They go into conference play with a Big West-best 11-3 record. They have very skilled players, including Player of the Year contender Christian Standhardinger and forward Isaac Fotu. The Warriors have only played one true road game in the preseason, beating Northern Arizona in Flagstaff. Look for Hawai’i to defend the Stan Sherriff Center well this season and also to win more conference road games. In their second season in the Big West, Hawai’i will also know what to expect in Anaheim come March.

Dan Monson’s addition of transfer Tyler Lamb makes Long Beach State a viable candidate for the Big West Championship despite a tough 4-10 preseason. By Owen Main

Something to Prove

Cal Poly – Cal Poly scheduled tough this season, and paid the price in terms of their record, losing four games to (1) Arizona, Stanford, Washington, and Pitt. Both Washington and Pitt got votes in the latest AP top-25 poll. The big disappointment in the Mustangs season came in blowout losses at Fresno State, at Delaware and at Loyola Marymount. They also lost winnable games against Pacific at a neutral site and blew a late lead at home against Nevada. Maybe head coach Joe Callero and the Mustangs will find a lineup that can play more consistently on both ends of the floor, but as long as they remain 289th out of 351 teams in the country in fouls per game (committing over 21 as a team), they’ll probably not see much success in the conference. It doesn’t help that they’ve shot 29 percent from 3-point range and have only shot about 2/3 as many free throws as their opponent. This is still a team with a lot to prove, and they have accordingly moved down the above power rankings. They’ll have the chance to move quickly, too, with a home game against Hawai’i and a Saturday night matchup vs. UCSB at the Thunderdome during the opening week of conference play.

Long Beach State – The 49ers were my preseason pick to win the conference, and since they added Tyler Lamb, we have seen why. In the four games Lamb has played, the Long Beach State has gone 3-1, including a win at USC. That record is all the more remarkable considering that the 49ers didn’t have a Division 1 win before the junior transfer from UCLA was able to play. That’s understandable considering their powerhouse preseason schedule, which has included Arizona, Missouri, Washington, Michigan, VCU, Kansas State, Creighton, and North Carolina State. Lamb is averaging 20.8 points per game and gives the 49ers the focal point they need to make a run in conference play. While they only have three Division 1 wins, look for Long Beach to quickly move back up the charts.

By many rankings, Long Beach State has either had the toughest strength of schedule in the country or is in the top-five. Cal Poly has had somewhere between the 8th and 22nd toughest schedule, and UCSB is well in the top-25. It will be very interesting to see how and whether the tough schedules many Big West coaches have created pay-off once conference play begins this week.

Big West January schedule

Big West Preseason Media poll

Pomeroy Strength of Schedule Rankings

In the 2013 Big West Tournament, the Pacific Tigers and coach Bob Thomason went out with a bang, winning the conference tournament in the program’s final season in the conference and Thomason’s 25th and final season coaching at Pacific.

The 2013-14 year promises to be an exciting one with new faces seeking to make an impact and several stars returning on teams that will compete.

Last season, four Big West teams went undefeated in conference play at home (Cal Poly, Long Beach State, UC Irvine, and Pacific). It’s no surprise that the media picked the three remaining teams of this group to finish in the top-four this season.

As has been the case for the past few years, many teams will be contenders for the conference tournament title at the end of the year. Here is a team by team breakdown, in the order I believe the teams will finish the regular season.

Mike Caffey will be the catalyst for the defending regular season champs. By Will Parris

1. Long Beach State

Despite winning an astounding 43 Big West regular season games over the past three years, Long Beach State has won the Big West Tournament only once during that time. Junior guard Mike Caffey returns to lead a group that lost last season’s conference player of the year, James Ennis.

This year’s 49ers team only has two seniors, but they aren’t young — eight juniors are featured on this year’s roster. With Caffey at guard and with the addition of UCLA transfer Tyler Lamb on the wing, coach Monson will have his team at or near the top of the conference going into the Big West Tournament at the Honda Center in March.

Why? Because, it seems, he always does.

2. UC Santa Barbara

UCSB had a down season last year, as is apt to happen when a conference Player of the Year candidate goes down with injuries during conference play. Junior Alan Williams is a beast for UCSB. Williams averaged 17 points and 11 rebounds last season, becoming the first Gaucho in 23 years to average a double-double. If he can stay healthy, UCSB can never be counted out.

If you thought they were young last year, the Gauchos sport 11 players on their roster who are listed as freshmen or sophomores. Seven are sophomores, including Michael Bryson, whose production and efficiency may determine whether Williams is consistently double-teamed. Kyle Boswell, one of only two seniors on the roster, will also have to make teams pay for double-teaming Williams. UCSB is a young team with a coach who knows how to get the most out of his players and parts that make sense. They will be a contender.

Cal Poly’s Chris Eversley is a returning All-Big West first team selection. By Owen Main

3. Cal Poly

Cal Poly head coach Joe Callero has a thing about consistency and defense. Last season, the Mustangs beat UCLA in the Bruins’ first game at the new Pauley Pavilion on the way to a third-place finish in the Big West’s regular season with a 12-6 conference record.

Senior Chris Eversley was an All-Big West first team selection last year, averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds per game. Other returners include two senior guards — sharpshooter Kyle Odister and point guard Jamal Johnson, Junior guard Maliik Love comes back from an injury that caused him to miss all of last season and sophomore center Brian Bennett (6′ 9″) will try to build on a solid freshman campaign during which he was one of only two Mustangs who started all 32 games.

Cal Poly also got much more athletic on the wing with junior college transfers. Sophomore David Nwaba and junior Michael Bolden provide length and athleticism to guard a variety of players and assist Eversley and Bennett on the glass. In his fifth season at Cal Poly, this might be Callero’s most athletic and physically talented group. Whether they can maintain their signature defense and make long shots late in the shot clock will determine whether they stay knocking on the door of a conference championship or break it down.

UC Irvine’s Will Davis II might be the most explosive finisher in the Big West this season. By Will Parris

4. UC Irvine

The media’s choice to finish first in the conference, UC Irvine might be the most interesting team in the Big West. Head coach Russell Turner, who came into the job with NBA experience, is now in his fourth year. The Anteaters were last year’s conference tournament runner-up and are poised to make another run..

Irvine’s size will be the first thing you notice — seven players on the roster are listed at 6′ 7” or greater, including freshman Mamadou Ndiaye, who is 7′ 6″. Junior forward Will Davis II is one of my favorite players to watch in the Big West. He had the best dunk I saw all of last season in the Anteaters’ semifinal win over Long Beach State in the Big West Tournament.

This team only has one senior and five upper-classmen, losing notable seniors Adam Folker, Michael Wilder and Daman Starring last year. They won’t have any problem defending in the paint, but how well guards and wing players perform will be the difference between a very good team and a potentially dominant one. However they finish in the regular season, this will be a dangerous team in the tournament, when the pace of play can slow down and half-court defense can have more of an impact.

5. Hawai’i

The Hawai’i trip is one that Big West coaches probably circle on their calendar — and not because they are thinking about snorkeling. The trip to Hawai’i can be a tough travel assignment, especailly if there is only a one-day break between another game either before or after the plane ride. This season, Cal Poly drew the long straw in conference scheduling, with the game at Hawai’i the only one of that particular week.

Christian Standhardinger and Isaac Fotu are active, skilled 6′ 8″ forwards who will patrol the paint at the Stan Sheriff Center. With seven players over 6′ 7″, coach Gib Arnold may be the only coach who can try to match UC Irvine’s height. Brandon Spearman and Brandon Jawato are the returning guards who scored the most last season.

While all other programs in the Big West have to go to Hawai’i once, the Rainbow Warriors have to make the trip at least four times during conference play and again for the conference tournament. Because of the travel, I’m picking them fifth in the regular season. In their second year in the conference, though, they aren’t a bad preseason dark horse pick in the conference tournament.

6. Cal State Northridge

The Cal State Northridge program has had its share of controversy since they won the conference tournament in 2009. Last year, the school named alumnus and former basketball player Dr. Brandon Martin the new athletic director. Martin fired Bobby Braswell, his former coach, and made a splash hiring former New Mexico State and Sacramento Kings head coach Reggie Theus. Theus has a lot of work to do with a team that went 14-17 overall (5-13 in Big West Conference play) a year ago.

Despite the disappointing finish to last season, Theus’ talent cupboard isn’t totally dry. Stephen Maxwell, a 6′ 7″ forward, averaged 15 points and 8 rebounds per game last season.  Josh Greene and Stephan Hicks also proved they can score, averaging 15 and 16 points per game respectively in 2012-13.

Theus will absolutely have an instant effect, but there will be ups and downs while the team adjusts to a new coach and a new style. Look for the Matadors to improve as conference play progresses and finish strong.

7. UC Davis

Jim Les seems like a coach who knows what he wants. In his third season, Les (a former NBA sharpshooter) brings back an experienced and talented team. Last season, they finished 9-9 in conference and earned the 6-seed in the conference tournament.

Corey Hawkins (20.3 ppg and 40% 3-point shooting in 2012-13) and Ryan Sypkens (14.1 ppg and 46% 3-point shooting in 2012-13) will be the most offensively potent pair of wings in the conference. Sypkens shot better last season from three-point range than two-point range and is probably the most dangerous shooter in the conference. J.T. Adenrele, the team’s best post player, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and will be lost for the year.

This is a team with lots of very good individual players and in his third season, look for coach Les’ team to start to gel into something closer and closer to Les’ vision. The team is set on the wing, but their point guard play and ability to play consistent defense will be the difference between UC Davis taking the step into the realm of contender in the conference.

8. Cal State Fullerton

Cal State Fullerton is a team that is rebuilding. Dedrique Taylor is in his first season at the helm for the Titans and he will have some work to do.

Fullerton’s guard play can be good at times, which will be well-suited to an uptempo style that Taylor wants to play.  This team has nine players who are either freshmen or seniors. Look for Fullerton to knock-off a few of the teams above them during conference play, but they are my pick to finish eighth.

9. UC Riverside

UC Riverside finished last in the conference last season and were once again picked to finish in last place by the media in 2013-14. Two seasons ago, the program was suspended from postseason play because of failure to meet the Academic Progress Rate (APR) requirements set-forth by the NCAA.

The Highlanders start the season led by Interim Head Coach Dennis Cutts. Cutts took over for former head coach Jim Woolridge, who moved into the position of Athletic Director in the offseason. While they’ll win at least some conference games, the loss of a head coach with Woolridge’s pedigree will not help this season.

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Until someone other than UCSB or Long Beach State wins the regular season title, I’ll continue to pick them at the top. Admittedly, college basketball is cyclical, so there are always opportunities for other teams. I think any of the top five or six teams on my list are great candidates to be the conference tournament winners in March and I could even see Corey Hawkins and Ryan Sypkens of UC Davis doing something really special in the tournament.

The Big West is a conference will be competitive this season. I don’t think anyone will “run away and hide” like Long Beach State has managed to do over the past few years.

There are three first-year head coaches and only Bob Williams (UCSB, 16th season), Dan Monson (Long Beach State, 7th season) and Joe Callero (Cal Poly, 5th season) have been at their current schools for more than four years. What that means — I’m not sure.

What do you think? Which team is your  favorite to win the Big West this season?

Many will enter, few will win. Photo by Will Parris

For the third night in a row, Will Parris took some great shots for Fansmanship at the Big West Tournament.

Long Beach State had been the conference favorites all season and they didn’t disappoint as they defeated UCSB 77-64 to earn the Big West’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Long Beach and Casper Ware will face Steve Alford’s New Mexico Lobos in the first round of the Big Dance this week.

Photos by Will Parris

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