I’ve considered all of the madness I have seen over the past four days, and I have come to the conclusion that I have vastly underrated college basketball over the past few years.  Maybe its because my favorite teams, the University of Oregon and Cal Poly State University have stunk over that time period, but I almost feel like I have missed out on something great over that time period.

Yes, every year I have  still paid attention to the tourney, but it seems this season, due the the heightened pressure from peers to pay attention and actually utilize your sense of sports knowledge, I have come to realize that college basketball is worth the attention.  Throw my gripes about hand-checking and the lack of defensive upkeep in the game aside for now.  The effort I have seen from all of these teams the past four days has glued me to the TV, whenever possible, as I have made my on-going daily life almost secondary to turning up the radio in the truck or turning on the Visio first thing when walking in the front door.

Sunday was somewhat of a disappointment, even though yesterday I lost my Final Four surprise, the Kansas State Frank Martins.  Today the Orange were juiced, Purdue laid down and Notre Dame laid an egg.

The best part of the day was the unsung.  My prediction from the start was that Kansas, if they could get by the Illini in the round of 32, would only have to only play the winner of Richmond and Morehead State (12 and 13 seeds, two of my three major first-round upsets) in the round of 16.  What I didn’t consider as well, is that after that win, and due to the upsets in the bottom of the bracket, they will have to only face the winner of two other upset seeds in the elite 8 – either 10 seed Florida State or 11 seed VCU.

This chain of events sets up perfect for my national champion.  In the rounds of 16 and 8, they only have to beat a 12 seed in the sweet 16, and either a 10 or 11 seed in the elite 8, to reach the Final Four.  Kansas fans will then migrate in drones to Houston for the Final Four, which is only a straight shot South from Lawrence, either 12 hours by wheel or 2.5 hours by wing.

This plus will give the Jayhawks a distinct advantage at the penultimate moment.  I can’t believe I’m saying this, but – Rock Chalk – Jayhawk – KU!  – ADS

Sun 3:20 8:25

With the in-laws in town, what could be more unpredictable than child-birth or the NCAA Tournament? The answer is Russell Crowe. So we’re watching Robin Hood. A decent end to a weekend of the underdog. — OM

Sun 3/20 8:12

As if this can’t get any more maddening, now Notre Dame is down eighteen to ten seed Florida st. with fifteen minutes to play. What is going on?–Loco

Sun 3/20 7:21

Greg Anthony was more right than anyone. This truly is the year of the underdog. Not much difference from 4 to 16 this year. Purdue just went down. Syracuse just went down. Pitt went down yesterday. Everyone is going down early this year.–Loco

Sun 3/20 5:21 PM

Brown from Texas is the best sixth man since Maggette with Duke in 99′.–Loco

Sun 3/20 5:11 PM

Zona by four with eight minutes to play. This is what it is all about. Two teams laying it on the line in the heated one and done atmosphere of the Madness. The NBA pales in comparison right now.–Loco

Sun 3/20 4:20

Ohio st. blowing out George Mason. There will no re-living of GM in the final four. Wow. Most dominate showing by any team I have ever seen in Tournament history. Ohio st. is 13 of 19 from 3pt.–Loco

Sun 3/20 3:45 PM

Zona by seven with seven to play in first half. I like the way they are shooting the corners and lobbing the ball into Williams. Getting Williams involved early has tired the Longhorns super-frosh Tristan Thompson. –Loco

Sun 3/20 2:02 PM

Coach Beilien has the Wolverines going in the right direction. This year’s Duke team is better than last years title team. I have go to hand it to the Wolverines, they simply DID NOT quit being down fifteen at one point in the 2nd half. Nice survival game by the Dukies though, 73-71.–Loco

Sun 3/20 12:31 PM

May be Duke by only five right now, but they clearly are in control of this game. Nolan Smith is the director of traffic. He is the dime dropping assasin leading charge for a balanced Duke team.  I like the Wolverines, but they are scrambling: living and dying by the three point shot. They are on life support, a half away from death.–Loco

Sun 3/20 11:50 AM

I too hate UNC. Mostly because I picked Washington. Duke better watch out vs. Michigan. Their coach always puts his team in a position to be in games late. If Nolan Smith keeps playing awesome D and if Michigan keeps throwing the ball away, it could be a long day for the Wolv’s… — OM

Sun. 3/20 11:25 AM

Over the emotions of my last post. I just don’t know what to make of this North Carolina team. In fact they piss me off. Wish I could see them lose by thirty to Cuesta College.–Loco

Sun. 3/20 9:02 AM

Will George Mason repeat their stunning 2006 run? Not if Ohio St. has something to say about it. How serious should we be taking Arizona? It is officially day four of March Madness. Yesterday gave us everything we hope to see: upsets. Butler is reminding us of their amazing 2010 team that upset, upset, upset, all the way to the title game. Their win over number one seed Pittsburgh was the funniest thing this tournament has ever seen. Two fouls in the final three seconds–one from half court, then another from 3/4 court, created the bewilderment of a one point Butler win.

Things really hit home for me while watching the Kansas st. v Wisconsin game. For four years, I have enjoyed Wildcats guard Jacob Pullen’s maturation into a collegiate all-American.  Despite his quickness and ability to shoot the three, pro scouts have shown no interest. After College, Pullen will be forced to reinterpret his life, try things out in the NBDL, overseas, or in the 9 to 5. For all of us who’ve enjoyed watching him, we have been left with memories that will fade as the years go by. When the final buzzer sounded with score of Wisconsin 70, Kansas St. 65, Pullen dropped to his knees with tears streaming down his face. Jacob I take nothing for granted. Thank you for everything young man.–Loco

I know who the champion of this year’s tournament is going to be. Could it be Duke, a number-one seed with all the moxie that a defending national champion should have? Is it Notre Dame, with their rich football tradition and their more-than-budding basketball dominance? Does a team like St. John’s have a chance? They’ve played a really tough schedule all year and proven they can beat anyone. Is there a star ready to emerge? Who is really favorite this year?

The favorite, and undisputed champion of the tournament every year is, in fact, The Unexpected.

Last season, it was Butler, whose poise and talent led them to the final and a half-court heave away from a National Championship. Though the perennial Horizon League heavyweights are always good, they are still from the Horizon League and yet, they still made it to the championship game.

When talking about the unexpected, we can talk all about Bryce Drew’s Valparaiso team making it through to the Sweet 16. Western Kentucky, Davidson, and George Mason all come to mind when talking about tournament surprises. When Princeton beat UCLA, it was my first experience of being, literally, upset by the outcome of a game (Go Bruins).

Upset City?

Though there will be some upsets this year—there always are—I want to make an argument for going “with the chalk” while filling out your brackets. In the 24-hour news cycle sporting world, there is so much information that it’s hard to sort it out. This is the untenable job of the selection committee.

Where there might have been systems in place 20 years ago to ensure correct seeds, it was an inexact science. Committee members had to tout the teams that they saw from their region. Perennial powers were given the benefit of the doubt because there just weren’t as many opportunities to watch basketball or gather the statistical information that is now available.

Like the rest of America, I’m left in the dark about the exact process for seeding the teams, but I think it’s safe to say that the gentlemen in the room have more information at hand than ever before. This is why I am predicting that, starting about five years ago, there was more “chalk” than people expect, despite the parody we have seen in college basketball over the past 10-20 years.

This was my prediction in the past as well. A few years ago, the one 12-seed I picked to win was the only one that lost. While my general “when in doubt, go with the chalk” mantra might not ring true over one year or even two, I think it will start to move more and more that way.

Look out West in 2011

I’m not revealing all of my quality picks (sure to go wrong) yet, but I will say this: The Pac-10 will surprise people. Everyone has been so down on the conference all year, and for good reason. Games seem long, teams grind, and there aren’t a lot of flashy stars. But UCLA, Arizona, and Washington all have a realistic chance of some upsets.

UCLA could match-up with Florida in the second round, and you know that Ben Howland would like nothing more than to get Billy Donovan’s team back for the butt-kickings they took in the championship game and the Final Four in recent years past.

Washington is, without question, the most talented team coming from the Pac 10. Lorenzo Romar and Steve Lavin were both assistant coaches on the 1995 UCLA championship team, and Romar seems to have channeled Lavin in his ability to recruit top-notch talent. While Romar’s teams still manage to lose games they shouldn’t throughout the year, they are too talented to be ignored. Having a very good, experienced, and talented point guard in Isaiah Thomas doesn’t hurt either.

Arizona is on the rise too. While I don’t have them going as far as UCLA or Washington, Derrick Williams (The Whole Enchilada from La Mirada) is a dominant player. Talent usually prevails in the tournament and, like Washington, Arizona has a lot of talent.

Look for the Pac-10 to offer some surprises.

Are there too many teams in the tournament?

While amid conversation this week, I realized that there are games starting on Tuesday night and that the four games that are being played before Thursday aren’t just the eight worst teams. Two of the games will be played by four at-large teams; presumably the four ‘last’ teams to get into the field of 68. I’m still trying to process how I feel about:

a) the first “round” of the tournament now being 6 days long, and..

b) 12-seeds who have to play a “play-in” game.

Call me a purist, but I think I’d prefer to stay with the 64-team field. Long and spread-out events like the NFL Draft (is it 3 days now?) or the BCS, seem to water-down the actual event for me. Part of what makes the tournament fun is that we haven’t had any basketball for a week now, and then there are 48 games crammed into 4 days on the first weekend – all of which are important.

In it’s “new” format, the tournament loses some of that “excitement” and “frenzy,” as the games are spread out over an entire week. I’m 29 and probably the demographic that the tournament committee wants watching the games, but I’m also busy. I have other things in my life, including a job. Being focused on the tournament for six days instead of four is a little too much for me.

I’ll take my four days of joy – tracking who gets upset and who can achieve what every team strives for – to survive. And advance.

owen@fansmanship.com