Despite the breakouts of Joc Pederson and Alex Guerrero, the hot start of Adrian Gonzalez has been they key to the Dodgers’ hot start. By Owen Main

The Dodgers are 13-8 at the end of the first month of the season — two games ahead in the National League West. The fun thing is, they haven’t got close to hitting their stride.

I thought it would be an OK time to summarize the good and the bad of the first month of the 2015 season.

The Good

First place

No matter what, setting a tone early-on in the season is important. The Dodgers have won five of the seven series they’ve played so far and, while they were swept by the Giants in San Francisco, they also had a seven-game winning streak.

Greinke keeps rolling

While Clayton Kershaw finds his form and the rest of the Dodgers pitching staff struggles to stay afloat, Zack Greinke has been exactly who he has been since he joined the Dodgers — a second ace. Grienke has a .918 WHIP and is 4-0 in his five starts in April.

Howie Kendrick is as-advertised

Howie Kendrick has been really, really good. He sports a .295/.353/.526 slash line and has been everything the Dodgers have needed him to be.

When people in the know said how good Howie Kendrick would be, many Dodger fans, especially those who are fans of the type of game Dee Gordon plays, didn’t want to hear it. All Kendrick has done is start the season in Kendrick-like form, contributing to wins, fighting in at-bat after at-bat. I really like watching replays of Kendrick at-bats.

Joc Pederson

Neat.

Joc Pederson, who owns the MLB's best walk rate, also appears to be hitting the ball quite hard: pic.twitter.com/AnD7QPcjEQ

— August Fagerstrom (@AugustF_MLB) May 1, 2015

Adrian Gonzalez‘ hot start

This has been the real story of the beginning of the season. Gonzalez leads the National League in home runs (8!!), slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. Dude is lighting it up. I don’t expect him to all season, but I’ll certainly enjoy it while it lasts.

Alex Guerrero

In just 28 at-bats this season, Guerrero has been dominant, bringing much optimism from Dodger fans. Five home runs, 13 RBIs, and a 1.505 OPS is a decent start for the enigmatic Cuban. Especially with the losses of Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford, Guerrero should get a chance to prove that he can hit for real in the major leagues.

The Bad

Injuries

Unfortunately, the list of key injuries to the Dodgers was long in April. Perhaps better that they come now instead of July or August, but here’s a short list:

Yasiel Puig

Carl Crawford

Brandon McCarthy

Joel Peralta

Hyun-jin Ryu

Kenley Jansen

Chis Withrow

Brandon League

Brandon Beachy

In all, nine players are currently on the disabled list, including three pitchers named Brandon. Ryu’s and McCarthy’s injuries are the most concerning for me. The starting rotation for the Dodgers could hinge on the performance of guys from the minor leagues.

Mike Bolsinger, David Huff, and Scott Baker have already made one start each. Zach Lee, Joe Wieland, and Carlos Frias could all be future options as well.

The list of replacements isn’t bad if we’re talking about a spot-start or a fifth starter situation. The problem is that right now Brett Anderson is being depended on as the THIRD starter and the fourth and fifth spots look like they’ll be filled with the list above, at least until Ryu comes back.

Starting pitching depth

This is kind of addressed above. The Dodgers have stockpiled talented hitters who are major-league ready. Despite trading Matt Kemp and injuries to Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford, the team has three or four Major League-capable outfielders to choose from. On top of that, Darwin Barney, Austin Barnes, Chris Heisey, and Enrique Hernandez are all at the ready down on the farm should the Dodgers need them in Los Angeles. Corey Seager could be successful in the big leagues RIGHT NOW if he was needed.

But for all the depth in hitting the Dodgers have amassed, the pitching depth is thinning-out pretty quickly. Kershaw and Greinke are as good as any duo in the majors, but after that things are starting to get rocky. Brett Anderson hasn’t gotten hurt yet, but he was supposed to be the fifth starter. He’s now in the number-three role.

It looks like Carlos Frias will get the start tonight against Arizona. 

The good news is that there are guys who could fill the role (see the list above), but none of them are really proven. Will the Dodgers go outside of what has been their plan so far and reach in a trade for a pitcher like Cole Hamels? Who else could be available as the season goes on?

I guess as long as the team keeps playing like they are and maintains their first-place standings, maybe the questions about starting pitching depth become moot. If they start to skid or fall in the standings, how much patience will the new management team exhibit?

Only 141 more games left, you guys.

The baseball season’s coming up and Mike Krukow thinks Yasiel Puig is dumb for not pegging the Giants as their biggest rival. In San Luis Obispo, I’d say they are, though the two teams have not met in the playoffs since the Wild Card round started.

I thought it would be fun to, over the next few weeks, go position by position and compare what personnel the two teams have in preparation for the 2015 season. Today’s position: First base.

Second base showcases the Dodgers’ best off-season aquisition against an up-and-comer for the Giants.

Position by Position: Catcher

Position by Position: First Base

Howie Kendrick et. al

The Dodgers made a flurry of deals that sent fans and media-types into a frenzy in December. First, they traded All-Star Dee Gordon to Miami for a group of players that included pitcher Andrew Heaney. They then flipped Heaney for Howie Kendrick who, by virtually all measures, is better than Gordon, albeit older.

So, the Dodgers improved at second base AND pocketed the assets of INF Enrique Hernandez, RP Chris Hatcher, and C/IF Austin Barnes. The question to be addressed for the purpose of this post is the value of Kendrick.

Surrounded by Mike Trout, Jared Weaver, and Josh Hamilton for the past few seasons, Kendrick has quietly been one of the most consistent second basemen in baseball. The 31 year-old was good for over five wins last season and is projected to be second-most valuable hitter — only to Yasiel Puig — in the Dodgers’ lineup.

He isn’t likely to have a season quite like last year, but his solid defense and complete all-around game should make him a solid contributor that, as much as anyone, the Dodgers are counting on.

Backup second-basemen on the Dodgers are not in short supply either. Alex Guerrero, the heralded Cuban middle infielder was paid highly, but was ranked only 19th by Dustin Nosler in his recent Dodgers prospect rankings. He can hit — probably — but where he fits-in defensively is a game lots of people have been playing lately. He isn’t a player that the current management brought-in and it’ll be interesting to see how and whether his career progresses.

Darwin Barney is another backup option at second. He should be a decent backup infielder.

The option for backup at second base that I think is the most interesting is probably Enrique Hernandez. Hernandez is only 23 and with Barney on the roster, he might have a hard time making the opening day roster.

That said, he hit .319 in the minors last year and seems like he could be competent. Not only did the Dodgers get Kendrick via a piece of the Dee Gordon trade, they also got a potential back-up directly for the Marlins. Not bad.

Joe Panik and friends

Joe Panik has played all of 73 Major League games and 269 at-bats. He is kind of, by definition, unproven.

Also, Panik was the starting second baseman on a World Series winner in 2014. That counts for a lot I think. While he hit just .233 in 17 postseason games, Giants fans remain bullish on Panik. There aren’t any more experienced or better players in line to play for the Giants at second base.

The guys who are on the 40-man roster and will presumably back-up Panik are less interesting than him.

The verdict

This one is pretty easy. Panik gives Giants fans the excitement of the unknown, but Kendrick’s track record is really great and the Dodgers have more experience and more options at the position.

Second base: Dodgers

I’m still not certain Dodger fans are excited enough about Howie Kendrick. When I mention Kendrick to Dodger-fan friends, I don’t get much more than a shoulder-shrug. While other positions may be a push this season in terms of value, the team has clearly upgraded at second base.

People need to be more excited about this.

Kendrick’s career stats read quite nicely. He’s coming off a 181-hit season when he was on the team with the best record in the regular season.

I know Dee Gordon‘s speed was sexy, but I’m going to reiterate this right now.

Howie Kendrick is better. He will be fun to watch.

Now, back to football, at least until Tuesday.

In the era of stats we have to sometimes look-up to get the full context of, I want to do my best to explain ZiPS projections.

The projections came out for the Dodgers yesterday, and while they are really rosy in some areas, the process of how they are formulated is a little bit mystical.

Dan Szymborski, a member of SABR and is (according to Wikipedia) “an expert in the field of baseball statistics,” especially in the realms of “projections and minor league translations.”

Speaking of projections, Szymborski is the creator of ZiPS. ZiPS is a kind of acronym for Szymborski Projection System. He’s a guy who’s an expert in projections, so it’s fun to look at projections now and it will be fun to compare those projections to how the team actually performs throughout the season.

Of course, if you don’t “believe in” advanced statistics, then you will think the whole thing is silly and probably not read much more of what I write on the subject. Actually, the whole thing might indeed be silly. But that won’t stop the typing that’s about to take place.

In case you are interested, Carson Cistulli is one of my favorite writers on subjects related to baseball analytics. His initial post about the Dodgers ZiPS projection is here.

Eric Stephen covers the Dodgers in a fairly complete manner at TrueBlueLA.com and wrote this piece, also worth reading on the subject.

While many Dodger fans have been wary of the team’s offseason moves, Andrew Friedman seems to really be diversifying his portfolio, so to speak. The Dodgers got rid of some guys with name value, but they have built a deep, talented lineup of really good players.

Here's a rough depth chart for the Dodgers with projected WAR c/o @DSzymborski. Full post tomorrow at FanGraphs. pic.twitter.com/KbdBLkYcQr

— Carson Cistulli (@cistulli) January 7, 2015

The most overlooked guy in all of this is Howie Kendrick. By WAR alone, Howie Kendrick had his second-best season ever and was sixth-best in the majors last season. Dee Gordon had a career year and was 10th.

While they lost ground at shortstop in terms of projected WAR — after all, a kind of injured Hanley Ramirez is REALLY good — the Dodgers are primed to have a much better overall pitching staff and Rollins will be a big upgrade defensively over Hanley.

The bottom line – don’t fret Dodger fans. A plan is materializing. It might not include the big names you know and love but, at least on paper, this team is still about as good as they were last season – with some room to grow.

I better type fast. Before I’m done, the Dodgers might make another trade.

Here’s what we know — For almost two months leading the Dodgers’ front office, Andrew Freidman and company made very few public moves. Then, yesterday, the dam broke. Perhaps it just started to break.

At any rate, the Dodgers went from a shortstop-less team with a few big holes to what looks now like a team that is a lot more efficient.

Is this the New York Stock Exchange or the Dodgers’ front office over the past 24 hours. By Ryan Lawler (Own work) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Instead of a question mark at catcher, it looks like they’ll roll with Yasmani Grandal. (Perhaps Grandal is a question mark unto himself. But he will be a question mark with a high upside).

Instead of four outfielders and a bloated payroll, the Dodgers have made room for a young player

They’ve also made themselves better defensively up the middle. Replacing Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, and Dee Gordon with Joc Pederson, Jimmy Rollins, and Howie Kendrick will result in a completely re-tooled and unquestionably better middle of the field defense. Giving Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford defined roles could do wonders, especially for Ethier who Scott Van Slyke starts to fit-in as a potential platoon player with. Without Kemp, the combinations start to fit better together — though trading Ethier or Crawford could still be in the cards. Joc Pederson is almost surely going to get a chance to play every day in center field and Yasiel Puig will man right field. That leaves one position for Etheir, Crawford, and Scott Van Slyke to somehow split. OK, there is still some inefficiency with outfielders, but not like before… .

For an organization who looked to the “nerds” to take the next step, Andrew Friedman and his geek squad might be bringing balance to the force.

Of all the players who they’ve acquired, I’m most excited about replacing Gordon with Kendrick. Quietly, the 31 year-old Kendrick has been a force for the Angels in recent years. Remember, the Angels team he was on last season had the best record in baseball. Gordon was a fan favorite — a young, fast, energetic player who I always loved to see on the base paths.

But Gordon’s peripheral numbers aren’t great and Friedman must have seen him as having had something like a career year last season. So he sold high and got a lot in return from Miami.

Kemp seems to have also been sold high. The Dodgers didn’t get as much back for him, though Yasmani Grandal might be due for a breakout year. Getting rid of Kemp is a possible roll of the dice, but they also get rid of about $70 of the money he is owed over the next few years, which brings us to the really fun part of this equation — the Dodgers, despite their bloated payroll — are starting to make themselves a lot more financially flexible without completely ruining the major-league product on the field. In fact, along with being cheaper, they might be even better already.

The final chip probably has yet to fall. A trade for Cole Hamels is heating up the rumor mill. So are free agents James Shields and Max Scherzer. If the reported trades all go through, the Dodgers have positioned themselves with prospects and freed-up cash to make a run at any of these three.

I haven’t even mentioned Brandon McCarthy, whose deal helps with depth at the back end of the rotation. That was an issue last season for the team.

Assuming Kemp, Rollins, McCarthy deals become official, #Dodgers will have made 6 transactions involving 19 players in less than 24 hours

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) December 11, 2014

Lots of Dodgers fans are excited. Many are nervous about losing fan-favorites Kemp and Gordon.

Here are links to a few articles (below) that have put me at ease recently. Remember Dodger fans — don’t get too worked up quite yet. There are probably other moves to be made and, by the time you finish reading this, it will be incomplete at-best and possibly inaccurate. Because this Dodgers front office is making moves.

Marlins Pay Steep Price to not get Better – From Fangraphs

The older and better Dodgers Middle Infield – From Fangraphs

Dodgers, McCarthy reportedly near 4-year deal – From Dodgers.com

What are the Dodgers even doing? – From Deadspin