Joe Protheroe got his 156 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, but Cal Poly’s offense started slowly en route to a loss that wasn’t really in question after the first quarter. 

Cal Poly has played what is probably the toughest schedule in the FCS. It’s definitely been the toughest in the Big Sky.

At some point, degree of difficulty has to start to intersect with results, and so far, Cal Poly’s are mixed at-best. After the opening-week win in Montana, the Mustangs have lost the last three games. In the last two, they’ve been down 21-0 in the first quarter.

So, which is the real Cal Poly team? Are they the team that won in Missoula and stayed in a game at Arizona State well into the fourth quarter? Or, are they the team that got housed each of the past two weeks against Northern Iowa and in Bozeman?

What is this defense, really?

One has to wonder how much Chris Fletcher really meant to this defense. Since Fletcher went down in a goal-line stand in Tempe, the Mustangs have been down 21-0 in the first quarter of each game they’ve played.

In case you weren’t sure, being down 21-0 is not a good way to start games.

Tim Walsh would probably point to his offense’s inability to score points and move the ball as a key reason for the Mustangs getting run over so quickly. That said, it’s not like the defense has been tired. It’s not like they’ve been close to stopping teams either. On Saturday in Bozeman, Cal Poly blew coverages, didn’t tackle, and were out-played so badly on defense that the Bobcats didn’t punt all game.

They acted like they were going to punt one time, then faked it and ran for a first-down. It was a back-breaker for the fragile Mustangs defense and a great call by the MSU coaching staff.

Cal Poly’s defense actually made Northern Iowa punt six times and got some kind of a rhythm in the game two weeks ago at Spanos. Whether they can start the game in a rhythm and get some consecutive first-quarter stops might be the difference between Cal Poly getting to two wins by Saturday night or not.

Opposing teams are finding places to get into the Cal Poly backfield and keep the Mustangs from getting the corner. 

Teams are scheming against the running game – hard

We’ve seen Cal Poly try more passes to wide receivers in the past few games, but other teams are loading up against the run, putting their whole roster in the box, and daring Saga Tuitele to unleash Chris Brown, Willie Tucker, and Jordan Hines.

While he did throw for two touchdowns on Saturday, Brown was an inefficient 6-15 passing. He’ll have to be sharper than that if Cal Poly thinks they’re going to beat another above- .500 team this season.

The good news is that Cal Poly is starting to target Willie Tucker more. Tucker made a circus catch in the back of the end zone against 1-1 coverage and almost pulled in another. At this point, the offense needs to take a few more chances with Tucker and Hines down field, and not just from inside the 30 yard-line.

If Cal Poly is going to put the ball in the air 15-20 times per game, it can’t just be on third-down, and the target can’t just be DJ Peluso. Cal Poly made some progress here last week and, to that end, maybe they can break the 30-point plateau this week. It’s something they haven’t done in any of their first four games this season.

Will the end of the season be any better?

Alex Suchesk has been getting more carries the last few weeks for Cal Poly, who is trying to find a reliable game-breaker whose name isn’t Chris Brown. 

I keep pointing to the end of the season as a time when Cal Poly can make-up a bunch of ground, but four or five losses in a row could be demoralizing for a team with high expectations.

Changes and adjustments have to continue to be made. Aside from the second quarter last Saturday, I haven’t felt the offense has been in a real rhythm on a drive-by-drive basis.

If Cal Poly can figure a few important things out, they will have a chance to win one or two of their next two games and go into the home stretch feeling really good.

If the reality is that they’re more like the team we’ve seen the last few weeks — especially on defense — a bye week might not matter as much as fans would hope.

Playoffs?!

The difference between being in the playoffs and not hasn’t been as big as you’d think the last few years. One crummy Saturday afternoon against Yale. One weak performance against Davis. You get the idea.

So far, the Mustangs haven’t done anything to kill their playoff chances. The teams they’ve lost to have virtually all been FCS playoff-caliber at the time they’ve played them.

Idaho State lost 80-8 last week. The difference between 2-3 and 1-4 is a wide chasm.

So what have we learned? Well, for the first time this season, Cal Poly will be playing a team that probably isn’t FCS playoff-caliber. They are still a really good team though, which means this week, the pressure’s on.

All photos courtesy of Brooks Nuanez – SkylineSportsMT.com. All rights reserved

Five weeks ago, nobody was sure where this Cal Poly football team was headed. One thing was for sure, it wasn’t this way. The Mustangs had just lost their conference opener to Northern Arizona. They were 1-3 overall, just keeping their collective heads above water.

You would never have known about the Mustangs early struggles watching them beat Montana State 35-27 in their 2014 homecoming game at Alex G. Spanos Stadium on Saturday night.

Now, the Mustangs sit in a first-place tie with Eastern Washington at 5-1 in Big Sky play after defeating sixth-ranked Montana and eighth-ranked Montana State in back-to-back weeks. Now, Cal Poly has put itself in a position to control their own playoff destiny — three wins would almost certainly put them in a prime playoff position.

The High Step

Let’s get this out of the way first — the eight point win could have been more. Late in the second quarter, with the score tied at 14, Cal Poly drove the length of the field. On fourth and three from the 12 yard line, Kori Garcia took a pitch wide left and high-stepped into the end zone. Garcia was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. Instead of a 21-14 Cal Poly lead, Garcia’s gaffe cost the Mustangs 15 yards. Tim Walsh was not  happy on the sidelines, and on the ensuing play Cal Poly failed to gain the first down on fourth and eight. Montana State took over.

As is prone to happen in situations like this, the Bobcats drove the length of the field in just a few minutes and kicked a field goal to go up 17-14 at halftime. It was a 10-point switch.

Triple Option Dominance

Hey, all you triple-option haters. I’m talking to you here. Cal Poly has put up 480-plus yards for seven consecutive weeks. SEVEN. The Mustangs have lost three offensive linemen during that time, but it hasn’t seemed to matter. They are 6-1 over that stretch, their quarterback is the conference’s second-leading rusher, and they might still be getting better.

This team has found its stride without their top running back and wide receiver, who were both arrested before the season started.

To put it simply, the triple option has been as effective as any offense out there. Along with the players recruited to run it, the offense gives Cal Poly a chance to win every week against any team in the Big Sky Conference.

Prukop is fast

Cal Poly’s Chris Brown is the second-leading rusher in the Big Sky Conference. Dakota Prukop might be every bit as elusive. Montana State’s slippery quarterback rushed for a game-high 129 yards on 19 carries on Saturday.

Prukop beat the Mustangs passing as well, throwing for 167 yards. Montana State was in striking distance of the end zone in the final minutes, but Prukop threw an interception to Karlton Dennis — Dennis’ third of the season. It was the game’s only turnover for either team, and Cal Poly ran out the clock. Despite the turnover, Prukop looks like he’ll be giving other teams headaches all season.

Michaels and Mudd take advantage

Kori Garcia, Chris Brown, and Brandon Howe were the only Mustangs who had multiple carries on the night, but Brent Michaels and Lance Mudd each took advantage of the one carry they got. Mudd went for 19 yards on his only rush and Michaels’ one rush was for 47 yards as part of a two-play, 71-yard drive the Mustangs managed in the third quarter that gave them the lead back at 28-24.

Hold onto the ball

Cal Poly held onto the ball to win both the turnover and time of possession battle in this one. The Mustangs committed zero turnovers. Montana State committed just one, but it was a big one that basically iced the game for Cal Poly.

Time of possession also played a crucial role. Cal Poly held the ball for 34:23 against Montana State’s 25:37. The final Mustang drive took 8:10 off the fourth quarter clock. The Mustangs covered 79 yards in 17 plays. The winning drive also included two fourth-down conversions by the Mustangs, who have made a habit out of attempting — and mostly succeeding — on fourth down.

Brothers Colin and Nick Dzubnar celebrate Cal Poly’s homecoming win over Montana State. By Owen Main

Dzubnar back in double-figures

Nick Dzubnar, the nation’s leading tackler, was back in double-figures with 18 on Saturday night. Dzubar did not reach ten tackles last week against Montana for the first time all season. The Buck Buchanon Award nominee was back on-track on Saturday.

Homecoming crowd was loud

The homecoming crowd was loud and into the game, but Alex G. Spanos Stadium was far from full. The attendance baffles me other than to think that lots of students were trying to get stuff done on Saturday night in order to attend the Blue/Green soccer match tomorrow night.

The crowd that did make it to the game did a good job of being loud, including the Montana State road fans who were well-represented.

Still, the turnout was a little disappointing given all that this game meant for Cal Poly’s conference and playoff hopes. If the Mustangs can get a win in Pocatello next week, I think I would expect a sellout for the Horseshoe Game against UC Davis in a few weeks.

Can they get ranked?

After beating the sixth-ranked team a week ago, Cal Poly was the “26th” team in the top-25 last week. This week, the Mustangs should move into the top-25 for the first time all season. For me, the real question is where they’ll be placed. After beating both Montana teams, will the Mustangs skyrocket into the top 10 or 12? Will they be ranked higher than either Montana team they just beat? How high other coaches and poll voters place them will say a lot about how legitimate they believe the Mustangs are.

At this point, they are as dangerous as any other team in the top 15. In a matter of hours, we’ll know whether anyone outside of San Luis Obispo also thinks so.

**Update – Cal Poly was ranked 21st in The Sports Network poll and 23rd in the coaches poll. A win on the road at Idaho State won’t be easy. Nothing has been this year. Maybe Cal Poly fans like it that way.

Photos by Owen Main

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