NFC Predictions are for the Birds

Sun, 14 Apr 2013 02:57:14 +0000

If the casual observer were to open their morning newspaper this week and only glance at the seeds remaining in NFL playoff bracket, the majority of them might flip over to the business section without much interest. Who would be interested in a couple of number six seeds playing a couple of number two seeds when you have other greatly uplifting things to indulge in like fraudulent bonuses of bank CEO’s and upside-down mortgages?

If one takes the time to read a little bit deeper, they will find a couple of classic match-ups that both the seasoned and greenhorn NFL fan can get excited about.

In recent years, the NFL has bragged about having the most competitive and encompassing parody in the circle of major professional sports leagues. While this parody is evident amongst the league’s elite, an even playing field amongst the entire league is severely lacking.

This lack of competitiveness as a whole and the evidence of parody only among the elite is the reason why these final conference clashes, that may look like mismatches on the cover, are so intriguing.

I am advising everyone to spit the seeds out when judging the quality of the teams remaining, due to a number of factors occurring over the course of the NFL season that all were both as much surreal as they were anticipated.

This playoff season saw a wildcard winner with a record of 12-4 and a division winner with a record of 7-9. Two of the other wild card teams had records of 11-5. The fourth and remaining wildcard team this playoff season finished with a record of 10-6. The New York Giants missed the playoffs with a 10-6 record, three games better than the NFC West division-winning Seattle Seahawks.

Four of the division winners had a 10-6 record, or worse. That’s half of the division winners having no better of an overall record than the wildcard team with the worst record. Wait a second. Read that again – not for a spelling or grammar check, but for a reality check. I’m half-expecting Moe or Curly to come club me over the head with a skillet as I sit here flapping my lips with my finger.

The winners of the the four divisions who featured only a division winner and no wildcard participant averaged a record of only 9.25 wins and 6.75 losses. The second-place finishers of those four shallow divisions averaged a record of only 8.5 wins and 7.5 losses, and finished a full two games out of a wildcard berth – collectively on average.

In other words, half the divisions are exceptional, those half that are exceptional are extremely top-heavy, and the other half of the divisions flat-out reek of inferiority, book-end to book-end.

However, I digress from this tirade of attacking the current structure and overall parody, or lack thereof. The fact that gets spit out of this unprecedented equation becomes: any team that received a wildcard berth this season definitely earned it, as they ended up with records that would win divisions in any other season. It seems evident that the number six seeds that are challenging the number two seeds this weekend might as well be number two seeds themselves, and therein lies the hidden allure.

* * * * * * *

The oldest and arguably most bitter rivalry in the NFL, which boasts a combined twenty-one NFL titles (including four super bowl titles) all-time between the two teams, reconvenes Sunday afternoon at the new Soldier Field in Chicago. Dating back to 1921, this bitter duel amazingly has only occurred in the playoffs one other time, a whole seventy years ago, in which the Bears defeated the Packers in 1941 on their way to the NFL title.

Their clash on Sunday will be by far, the most penultimate contest this storied rivalry has ever seen in the one hundred eighty-one times over the past ninety years it has been celebrated. The rarity and significance of this game is the equivalent of being able to see Halley’s Comet, only having to wait an extra fifteen years on top of the already anticipated seventy-five.

This upcoming chapter of course, will be the third between the Packers and Bears this season. The Bears prevailed in a late September Monday Night affair in Chicago, 20-17. The Packers eked out a 10-3 win in the last game of the regular season that was highlighted by less than perfect weather conditions, as well as the Bears supposedly not putting their best foot forward in order to preserve health, seeing as they had already clinched the two seed with no way to obtain the one seed or fall to the three.

On Sunday, the weather man calls for a game-time temperature of 15 degrees with a windchill of zero or slightly below. The wind factor is what will dictate the course of this game. When it’s calm, its bearable – but when it gets whipping off of Lake Michigan, Chicago in January might as well be the surface of Mars.

If it stays cold and calm, expect the Green Bay-weathered Aaron Rodgers to come out firing, as his arm will set up the running lanes later on in the game for rookie playoff standout James Starks. If this occurs, expect Mike Martz to counter with a desperate pass-first approach, throwing caution to a deliberate Matt Forte running attack and playing right into the favored Packers’ hands.

If the wind picks up significantly however, expect a closer, field position battle that is more conducive to the efficiency of and puts less pressure on ‘feast or famine’ Jay Cutler. This could shorten the game undoubtedly, favoring the Bears and their home crowd.

Don’t count out these two underrated defenses either. Brian Urlacher is as equally one of the league’s best leaders as Lance Briggs is a surprise play-maker. The Bears do have a few worries on the back-end however, and if Julius Peppers and company up front don’t get a consistent and discomforting pass-rush on Rodgers, you could see the Packers run up some substantial yardage through the air.

The Packers bring to the table a stout 3-4 scheme that has potential defensive player of the year, Clay Matthews III flying off the edge and tossing his body around with reckless abandonment. This front also features the hand-on-the-ground inside presence of Cullen Jenkins taking up two blockers, with A.J. Hawk lurking behind him stuffing the run. I would be remiss not to make note of “Mr. Do-everything” Charles Woodson, as you can bet he will come up with either a key interception, a key fumble forced or recovery, or a key sack.

If Green Bay can make ‘Jay-kyll and Hyde’ Cutler look away from his go-to red zone tool, tight end Greg Olson, and force him to have to earn his paycheck on 3rd and long, Chicago fans are in for a long, cold day of sitting on their hands.

All-NFL returner Devin Hester could make a significant impact, that is, if Green Bay decides to even kick to him. Kicking to Green Bay’s poor-man’s version of Hester, Tramon Williams, isn’t a good idea either. Expect both punters to have worked on their directional kicking extensively throughout this week of preparation. Punting with the accuracy of a marksman may prove vital in this game, taking into account both the danger of both punt returners and the danger of the swirling winds that may arise.

My pick: Packers 21, Bears 17.

On the other side of the bracket, the gum-flapping, ‘look at me’ Jets travel to Heinz Field on Sunday night to face the Pittsburgh Steelers and 65,000 terrible towels. While the Jets have earned back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, I have a feeling they are going to get this far only to fall just short of the super bowl for the second year in a row.

Yes, they beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh less than a month ago, 22-17. Yes, they squeaked by the Colts in Indianapolis albeit on the heels of a botched time-out call by Jim Caldwell. And yes, they took it to the evil Belichick and Brady empire in Foxboro with brash bravado and confusing defensive scheme. However, I see three major differences between the two teams they beat to get here and the team they have standing between them and the Jerry Jones Bowl in Dallas.

One, the meeting on December 19th between the two included four flukes that all favored the Jets: an opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Brad Smith, a late safety by Jason Taylor, a turnover-fee game by Mark Sanchez; and most importantly, the best player on the field when he’s healthy, Troy Polamalu, sat the game out with a bum ankle. The game was also decided on a goal-to-go situation for the Steelers, who failed to produce a winning touchdown inside the ten yard line in the closing seconds. All of these key factors turned out right for the Jets and wrong for the Steelers, something considered extremely against the odds and that any logical investor should not bet on to happen the same way again.

Two, Big Ben is anything but an immobile, standing pop-up dummy the likes of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. He is known league-wide as not only being able to avoid sacks by breaking head-on tackle attempts with his defensive lineman frame, but also being able to avoid them by getting outside the pocket with his surprising fleet of foot. These are two predominant dynamics that Manning or Brady could not even dream about doing.

You can guarantee the Jets will bring pressure and be in Ben’s face, due to the fact that the Steelers’ average running game featuring Rashard Mendenhall won’t be much of a deterrent – but you can also guarantee that Roethlisberger will be able to avoid at least some of the pressure with his mobility and toughness, creating more and different offensive opportunities the likes of what New York hasn’t had to contend with the past two weeks.

And most notably, three, Pittsburgh’s Defense makes the defenses of Indianapolis and New England look like rank amateurs. Versus the Jets the past two weeks, the Colts defense was undermanned due to injruy and the Patriot defense was young and inexperienced. The Steelers defense features the best and most experienced line-backing core in the league, lead by docket-fined and notorious head-hunter James Harrison, a factor that could turn the Jets bread and butter running game into toasted char.

The bottom line, if Ben Roethlisberger has time or can at least make a few plays with his feet, the Steeler offense will at the very least break even with the Jets defense. I see this push creating an actual advantage for Pittsburgh overall, as the weakest link in this game, the predictable and vanilla Jets offense, will be at a disadvantage and have trouble staying ‘on schedule’ in their down and distances versus the top-level Steeler defense.

My Pick: Steelers 17, Jets 13.

The battle of the Midwest and the battle of the East – when the dust settles, you end up, in my mind, with the Packers and Steelers meeting in Dallas. What a feature – the team of the 60’s versus the team of the 70’s, as well as both being super bowl champions again in the past fifteen years. Which one of these classic franchises will become their organization’s championship version, 3.0? Who could start this decade off with a Lombardi and lay the foundation for a dynasty of the teens?

However it plays out, make sure to spit out the bubble gum and strap on the leather come Sunday, because both of these epic collisions will exceed expectations.

-Andrew Stevens

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NFC Championship – Fansmanship

NFC Predictions are for the Birds