Coming into the 2013-2014 NFL season, many people expected that at least some version of the last four teams standing would be the Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots and 49ers. Most years, it doesn’t happen where the projected final four actually make it due to a magical run from a dark horse or incredible unforeseen season. But this year it has happened and for the NFL that is a very good thing.

AFC Championship

Can Tom Brady lead the Patriots to another Super Bowl win? First he will have to go through Peyton Manning and Denver. By Keith Allison from Baltimore, USA (Tom Brady) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

For Brady and the Patriots a win could mean an incredible feat of reaching the Super Bowl for a sixth time despite all the injuries and poor play from Brady throughout the season. For Manning, this game could make or break his legacy based off his previous playoff struggles.

NFC Championship

On the NFC side of things, the championship showcases two of the most exciting and best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick has already made it to the Super Bowl in his short career and Russell Wilson is looking to add to his impressive resume. Over the last few seasons, Seattle vs. San Francisco has become arguably the most heated rivalry in the NFL so it is only fitting that they meet for the NFC crown. Kaepernick and the 49ers have had their recent struggles playing in Seattle so it will be interesting to see how they respond in the NFC Title game.

No matter which two teams win this weekend, Super Bowl XLVIII will be a battle of new vs old. Either way the NFL and its fans will benefit from the matchup.

Who do you think will be in the Super Bowl?

This past weekend, however, provided fans with two games in which games were lost, not won.

New England vs. Baltimore

An aging Baltimore defense which probably only has one or two more Super Bowl runs in them played well. If you can hold a Tom Brady-led offense to 23 points, you have a good chance of winning. After being called-out by Ed Reed earlier in the week, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco did his part and threw what would have been the go ahead TD pass to Lee Evans. Evans made the catch, but failed to squeeze the ball and had it slapped out of his hands by Sterling Moore. Evans had both feet planted in the endzone and just had to squeeze the ball for one more second.

Subsequently, Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff missed what was a chip-shot field goal which would have sent the game into overtime. The look on the Ravens sideline told the whole story, it wasn’t disappointment. It was was shock and disbelief. The game wasn’t won, it was lost. It was lost when the Ravens, led by Flacco failed to take chances downfield throughout the game. The Patriots’ secondary has been exposed all season long, and with Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as his wideouts Flacco had plenty of chances to throw the ball downfield. Ray Rice got his touches, even Ricky Williams got more than a few touches, but Flacco needed to open the playbook, extend the Patriots secondary and win the game.

San Francisco vs. New York Giants

Were it not for Kyle Williams’ two fumbles on punt returns, the Niners would probably be in the Super Bowl. His two fumbles led to 10 Giants points. The first fumble in the 4th quarter led to an Eli Manning touchdown pass that gave the Giants the lead.

Though Williams later made a nice kick-off return for 40 yds to set up a David Akers FG to tie the game, still his earlier turnover led to  points for the “G-Men.” In overtime, his fumble led to a Lawrence Tynes field goal that sent the Giants to the Super Bowl. While it’s easy to make Kyle Williams the goat in this case, two statistics beyond the pair of fumbles stand out.

The Niners were 1-13 on 3rd down conversions. Let me repeat, 1 out of 13. Eli Manning was 2-2 on his first two 3rd down conversions. The inability to sustain drives will kill whatever momentum you have and wear down your defense. Let’s say your defense makes some big plays and gets a stop, then the offense has a 3 and out, and the defense has to go right back on the field. This happened for the entire game and you cannot tell me that if you were Patrick Willis or Justin Smith you wouldn’t be a little ticked off.

We should also look at the 49ers wide receivers. They made a total of 1 catch for a whopping 3 yards for the entirety of the game. ONE CATCH. It’s true, Alex Smith had a pair of late 4th quarter drives that stalled miserably, but we all know he has it in him (see the Saints game). The Giants did their part by double-covering TE Vernon Davis, but much heralded Michael Crabtree was single covered most of the game. He failed to find soft spots in the zone coverage and when the Giants used Tampa 2 coverage, he failed to get enough separation.

One of the ways to beat a Tampa 2 is utilize your secondary target. As the quarterback drops back, he eyes his primary target getting the deep safety to commit to that side. The quarterback can even pump fake, further committing the safety deep. Then the quarterback, ideally, will look to his secondary read (other side of the field) and usually pass there. This second option is predicated on two things, 1) having your offensive line give you enough time and 2) having a solid second option who can run a precise route so the quarterback can drop the pass in. Most of the time, Davis functions as the primary read. If Crabtree ran precise routes he would have had the ball thrown his way.

But too often Crabtree wasn’t open, so Smith went to his 3rd option which was usually a checkdown to Frank Gore for minimal yardage. While he is a terrific running back, Gore’s strength has never been in the open field. We all know the San Francisco offensive line is solid. When Mike Singletary was the coach, he made sure of that. And if you’re practicing against one of the best defensive lines in football (led by Justin and Alden Smith) everyday, you’ve got to be better than average. They were not on Sunday.

Alex Smith is accurate (see the perfect passes he drops into Vernon Davis), and he takes care of the ball. He doesn’t throw the ball into tight coverages where he might get intercepted. Sure he could take a few more chances, but in big games, turnovers can swing momentum so quickly so it’s important to take care of the ball. The game came down to a failure by the WR corps (of which Kyle Williams is a member of) and the 49ers inability to make big plays down the stretch. They played not to lose, and got just what they tried so hard to avoid.

In the Conference Championship games, we saw two quarterbacks who didn’t step up to make plays. Their teams who will be watching the Super Bowl from their couches. Say what you want about the quarterbacks who are in the Super Bowl, but Tom Brady of New England and Eli Manning of New York make plays, they capitalize on turnovers, and they go out and win games. It’s luck that favors the brave.