The Big East looks to be the first truly dying conference, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh signing on the dotted line last week to join the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference).  Reports also have come out in the past few days that Connecticut and Rutgers will follow suit.  If this were to happen, it would transform the ACC into the first 16-team super-conference.  The Big East would then be left in shambles, and there is a good chance that TCU, who was slated to join the Big East next season, will be looking to back out of that obligation at some point in the near future.  Look for TCU to jump back to non-BCS league play by most likely joining either the Mountain West Conference or Conference USA.

What was the Pac 10 and now is the Pac 12, has been looking to become the Pac 16 by the end of the year.  Colorado and Utah joined the ranks this season from the Big 12 and the Mountain West Conference respectively.  Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech were looking to join the party and create a new Pac 16.  However, late last night Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott announced that the Pac 12 would not be expanding any further at this point in time.  That doesn’t mean that the Pac 12 won’t explore the possibility at season’s end.  The reports are that Texas nixed any deal, given the fact that they refused to share any revenue created from their new “Longhorn Network” TV deal.

I believe the eventual destiny of the Pac 12 is to in fact add Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and when this destiny is eventually fulfilled, the mass exodus from the Big 12 and the conference’s dissolving entirely will commence.  Given the idea that they could lose these four teams, Nebraska has already left the conference this season for the Big 10, and Texas A&M has already made a tentative deal to join the SEC next season, the Big 12 would then be left a rotting carcass. 

The Big 12 would then be left with five schools that would be searching for new homes:  Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Baylor, and Iowa State.  I believe the current 12-team Big 10 would then absorb Big 12 leftovers:  Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Iowa State to become the new Big 16, and Baylor will be left on the outside looking in.  It is reasonable to say that the only chance a school like Baylor would have to join the Big 10 is if Missouri joined the SEC (Southeastern Conference), which is also a rumor being floated. 

So where is this high-stakes game of musical chairs going to end up when the music stops?  If the end result is four 16-team super-conferences of and if my math is correct, that adds up to 64 teams.  There are currently 68 teams in the FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision), 66 in the 6 “BCS” conferences, and independents Notre Dame and BYU.  So what four teams will be left out?  And what slots would be left if the 16-team ACC and Pac 16 would be created?  And will Notre Dame finally be forced to join a conference?

The SEC currently has 12 teams, divisions of East and West containing six each.  With Texas A&M most likely joining the West division next season, that leaves one more spot open in the West and two spots open in the East.  The obvious suitors for those three spots are:  Missouri from the Big 12, some other remaining Big 12 school (although there has been no formal or informal news the SEC is interested in any other Big 12 schools other than Texas A&M and possibly Missouri at this point), and Big East fall-outs West Virginia, South Florida, Louisville or Cincinnati. 

Even with the current news of the SEC possibly turning their noses up at West Virginia, I believe West Virginia joining the East division and Missouri or Cincinnati joining the West division are the best possible choices for the SEC to be able to expand its footprint.  The final spot in the East would then come down to a tug-of-war between:  a rising Cincinnati team (if Missouri takes the other spot in the West) that won back to back Big East titles in 2008 and 2009 and recieved automatic bids to BCS bowl games, a Louisville program that has underachieved vastly in the past five years, and a rising South Florida Program that has recently had multiple players selected in the early rounds of the NFL draft.  If I was a betting man (and I am) and had to pick them in order of possibility from most to least likely, I would bet on Cincinnati as the engine, South Florida as the passenger car, and Louisville as the kaboose. 

All of this being considered, four of these five programs could be left standing there when the music stops:  Notre Dame, BYU, South Florida, Louisville or Baylor. 

Notre Dame has the largest nation-wide fan base and a lucrative TV deal with NBC.  They have always been independent and I believe even with all this madness, they have no feasible reason to change anything. 

BYU also has a good national following, is enjoying its first season of independence, and worst case scenario could always re-join the Mountain West Conference, where they have flourished in years past. 

South Florida has overachieved in the past decade from where the program’s overall tradition of winning was in years past, but joining Conference USA or even the Sun Belt Conference would not destroy their program.  They would simply become a powerful non-BCS program like TCU or Boise State, who would benefit from a weaker schedule and could find their way into a BCS bowl if they go undefeated in a season.  This would be more than entirely possible given the distinct advantage of their talent versus the rest of that currently performing in Conference USA or the Sun Belt Conference.

Louisville would most likely join Conference USA, as even though it isn’t a BCS conference, it is closely comparable to the Big East talent-wise, as Conference USA has slowly become the best non-BCS conference right next to the Mountain West Conference, and the Big East has without a doubt become the worst BCS conference.  Louisville would be challenged by teams like Houston, East Carolina, Central Florida and Tulsa the same way they were by Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Rutgers. 

Baylor realistically would have the most options if they are left out of the super-conference shuffle, due to Baylor being a private school.  Baylor could go ‘Notre Dame’ and become a completely independent private school as far as football is concerned, or join either the Mountain West Conference or Conference USA.  Of those two conferences, the Mountain West would be more viable, due to less travel distance on a week to week basis because of Baylor’s proximity to the other teams in the conference.

Recent BCS championship contenders TCU and Boise State would also be left out, but if TCU joined the MWC with Baylor, they both would be a good challenge for Boise State in that conference, as the conference would then have 3 schools perpetually in the top 50, something it has never been able to boast.

The bottom line of all these possible scenarios falls back on one key fact  – a permanent landscape that will rule for decades to come most likely won’t be set for at least another two or three seasons.  A high-risk game of chicken (is there any other kind?) will be played over the next few years by conference commissioners that will have to dawn the power-broker hat, as these executives will without a doubt earn their salary and then some.  But once the paint dries on the new conference monstrosities, I believe the most salient advance for the game itself that will result from this re-structure will be the ever-closer advancing towards a playoff system to decide a champion – something the vast majority of college football fans have insatiably craved for decades. 

Four super-conference champions playing out a football final four in pursuit of the crystal ball would be beyond compelling.  And with all the hectic changes that are taking place and will continue to in the near future, it is, by the day, becoming all that much more safe to say that you can’t rule out any possibility. 

I know who the champion of this year’s tournament is going to be. Could it be Duke, a number-one seed with all the moxie that a defending national champion should have? Is it Notre Dame, with their rich football tradition and their more-than-budding basketball dominance? Does a team like St. John’s have a chance? They’ve played a really tough schedule all year and proven they can beat anyone. Is there a star ready to emerge? Who is really favorite this year?

The favorite, and undisputed champion of the tournament every year is, in fact, The Unexpected.

Last season, it was Butler, whose poise and talent led them to the final and a half-court heave away from a National Championship. Though the perennial Horizon League heavyweights are always good, they are still from the Horizon League and yet, they still made it to the championship game.

When talking about the unexpected, we can talk all about Bryce Drew’s Valparaiso team making it through to the Sweet 16. Western Kentucky, Davidson, and George Mason all come to mind when talking about tournament surprises. When Princeton beat UCLA, it was my first experience of being, literally, upset by the outcome of a game (Go Bruins).

Upset City?

Though there will be some upsets this year—there always are—I want to make an argument for going “with the chalk” while filling out your brackets. In the 24-hour news cycle sporting world, there is so much information that it’s hard to sort it out. This is the untenable job of the selection committee.

Where there might have been systems in place 20 years ago to ensure correct seeds, it was an inexact science. Committee members had to tout the teams that they saw from their region. Perennial powers were given the benefit of the doubt because there just weren’t as many opportunities to watch basketball or gather the statistical information that is now available.

Like the rest of America, I’m left in the dark about the exact process for seeding the teams, but I think it’s safe to say that the gentlemen in the room have more information at hand than ever before. This is why I am predicting that, starting about five years ago, there was more “chalk” than people expect, despite the parody we have seen in college basketball over the past 10-20 years.

This was my prediction in the past as well. A few years ago, the one 12-seed I picked to win was the only one that lost. While my general “when in doubt, go with the chalk” mantra might not ring true over one year or even two, I think it will start to move more and more that way.

Look out West in 2011

I’m not revealing all of my quality picks (sure to go wrong) yet, but I will say this: The Pac-10 will surprise people. Everyone has been so down on the conference all year, and for good reason. Games seem long, teams grind, and there aren’t a lot of flashy stars. But UCLA, Arizona, and Washington all have a realistic chance of some upsets.

UCLA could match-up with Florida in the second round, and you know that Ben Howland would like nothing more than to get Billy Donovan’s team back for the butt-kickings they took in the championship game and the Final Four in recent years past.

Washington is, without question, the most talented team coming from the Pac 10. Lorenzo Romar and Steve Lavin were both assistant coaches on the 1995 UCLA championship team, and Romar seems to have channeled Lavin in his ability to recruit top-notch talent. While Romar’s teams still manage to lose games they shouldn’t throughout the year, they are too talented to be ignored. Having a very good, experienced, and talented point guard in Isaiah Thomas doesn’t hurt either.

Arizona is on the rise too. While I don’t have them going as far as UCLA or Washington, Derrick Williams (The Whole Enchilada from La Mirada) is a dominant player. Talent usually prevails in the tournament and, like Washington, Arizona has a lot of talent.

Look for the Pac-10 to offer some surprises.

Are there too many teams in the tournament?

While amid conversation this week, I realized that there are games starting on Tuesday night and that the four games that are being played before Thursday aren’t just the eight worst teams. Two of the games will be played by four at-large teams; presumably the four ‘last’ teams to get into the field of 68. I’m still trying to process how I feel about:

a) the first “round” of the tournament now being 6 days long, and..

b) 12-seeds who have to play a “play-in” game.

Call me a purist, but I think I’d prefer to stay with the 64-team field. Long and spread-out events like the NFL Draft (is it 3 days now?) or the BCS, seem to water-down the actual event for me. Part of what makes the tournament fun is that we haven’t had any basketball for a week now, and then there are 48 games crammed into 4 days on the first weekend – all of which are important.

In it’s “new” format, the tournament loses some of that “excitement” and “frenzy,” as the games are spread out over an entire week. I’m 29 and probably the demographic that the tournament committee wants watching the games, but I’m also busy. I have other things in my life, including a job. Being focused on the tournament for six days instead of four is a little too much for me.

I’ll take my four days of joy – tracking who gets upset and who can achieve what every team strives for – to survive. And advance.

owen@fansmanship.com

* LA Times Dodgers Blogger Steve Dilbeck is awesome. Here he talks about the consipracy theory that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti is a secret agent for the Giants sent to Los Angeles to destroy the Dodgers. — http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers/2011/02/say-it-isnt-so-are-dodgers-gm-ned-collettis-giants-roots-still-running-strong.html

* Yahoo! Sports Matt Hinton reported that the website www.pac12.com is currently owned by someone selling Tupac songs via Amazon. Is he really still alive?! — http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday?author=Matt+Hinton

* At the bottom of this page, www.bigwest.org gives us interviews of Cal Poly Men’s Basketball players Shawn Lewis and Will Donahue after the Mustangs’ 5th straight conference win. Coach Callero adds insight including some encouragement for more fans to show up and continue to be rowdy in Mott Gym. — http://www.bigwest.org//story.asp?story_id=14489

* And last, but not least, soccer. Wayne Rooney’s goal against Manchester City was called by his coach the “greatest strike in 25 years” according to sportsnewscaster.com. Judging by their picture here, I don’t doubt it. Too bad none of these video highlights are posted and easily findable online… — http://www.sportsnewscaster.com/wayne-rooney-goal-vs-manchester-city-premiere-league-results-video/12188/

-owen@fansmanship.com