I like to make predictions. Sometimes they are right. More of the time they are not. It’s fun though, so I do it anyway.

Here’s my latest prediction: Lance Armstrong will confess to doping when he is interviewed by Oprah (airing) on January 17th. I’ve written about Lance Armstrong before. Things have gotten even worse for him since then.

When it comes to baseball’s steroid users or anyone in the public eye who do anything bad like this, the almost-cliche response about what they should do is, “Go on Oprah and come clean.”

Alex Rodriguez did it. Instead of Oprah, Rodriguez chose ESPN’s Peter Gammons to come clean with. He wore a blue sweater, sat-down in a homey environment, and came clean. He came off as mostly honest, admitting that he used steroids and saying he was sorry.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WSwiYnSBis

Lance Armstrong is riding his way straight to a confession, I believe. By Daniel Norton (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

What does this have to do with Lance Armstrong? Well, if he was smart he would be studying the A-Rod confession. He would also be looking at the respective sideshows that Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmiero participated in. All those guys look like clowns now. Rodriguez may be perceived negatively, but not like those three.

Another great role model for Armstrong might be Mark McGwire. Big Mac vehemently denied use for years and finally capitulated and came clean, and has been better-respected for it over the past two years, serving as hitting coach for the Cardinals and now the Dodgers. He wanted to be back in the public eye and had to pay the price to do so.

Armstrong has also denied PED use with about as much force as a person can. He has been tested hundreds of times and always pointed to the always-outmoded tests as proof he didn’t do it.

If you are not easily offended, aren’t worried about foul language and are a fan of South Park, Lance Armstrong, and/or the Sneetches, you’ll probably want to look at the South Park episode HERE. South Park’s Trey Parker and Matt Stone are the kings of modern satire. The sports world and its reflection on society are so easy to make fun of sometimes…

Anyway, back to Lance and Oprah. It is happening at Lance Armstrong’s home, so the “softer” non-studio, private environment is already in-place. I’m sure Lance will have lots to say. I’m sure millions will watch.

I play two scenarios in my head:

Scenario 1: Lance goes all Rafael Palmeiro on Oprah. “I never did any of that,” he says. “My teammates were forced to lie by USADA and WADA. Everyone is turning on me.”

Scenario 2: Lance goes all A-Rod: “I did it, it was the culture, everyone was doing it and I got caught-up in it. I’m sorry for any hurt I’ve caused.”

I just don’t think there’s a third scenario. I cannot imagine that, 10 years from now, Lance wants to have an embarrassing Palmeiro-like moment on tape when definitive proof emerges that, beyond any shadow of a doubt, he doped. I can’t imagine anyone would put themselves in that position, and because of that, I think Scenario 2 happens. I think Lance admits he doped. Two years ago, some people would have been surprised. Not anymore.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxo4pCITRM

I can’t imagine Lance letting himself have a Palmeiro moment, especially with Oprah.

…”paleeze,” she says, that being the Ms. Casual Fan, “take your knowledge and shove it.”

I will, but if I take it and shove it, I will be taking Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, and Joey Votto with me. You ms. Casual fan can take Ryan Howard. Oh, and while you are at it, tak Jay Buhner and Troy Glaus with you.

Major League Baseball’s “power” era has looked more like a calf in a tutu swinging a billy club at a gnat, than the rugged, gritty, off-smelling, sweaty American ball player of our beloved past. Have you ever seen Kathy Ireland pose in a tight fitting bikini with a beer belly and one slumping boob?

It has been way more disgusting than a droopy Kathy Ireland. Like gracing a spread eagle Rodney Dangerfield in a playgirl centerfold.  Can I get me some sexy baseball back?

Or do I have to assume my role as the game’s Dr. Dre, dropping rhymes on the death of the Joe-Joe-D days? Hip Hop and Baseball are two peas in a pod ripped apart in the belly of an edamame. Sushi anyone?

Not a chance. If it has been made with a pink slab of “MLB star of the last fifteen years,” then the piece righteously stinks. It has been cut from the loins of  men who consistently hit below .260, and strikeout 150 times. “Yeah, well they hit home runs.” Well America hit- some- bombs in Nagasaki; so what is your point? I can hit my head against a wall… and?

This is why nothing makes sense from the populist perspective. We the spectators, are those who choose the ones worthy enough to receive our praise.  Not Ricki Lake.

Bring back the classy LBC Snoop.

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Last season’s year of the “no hitter,” set the bar high for baseball’s future. Players were held accountable for their extra-curricular activities and injuries took their toll. This caused reliance upon PED’s to be close to null, which is great, considering for the last twenty years any beefy troll with biceps and an average swing could be glorified for golfing forty balls out of the park. Without muscle crank being tossed around like a Nerf football in the gym locker room, survival of the fittest did what it intended to do. It weeded out the trash.

I personally was sick of this neo-golf garbage. It was baseball I wanted to see, just baseball damn it. Not a vague form it.

Which sent me into a tail spin.  I began to feel like a crack addict in need of my fix for more of a grass roots sport. So I slanted my attention toward soccer and professional tennis. I felt like I had joined a private club loving those two sports. And I’m not gonna lie, those were some of my greatest years to memory. Watching matches between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal battling it out like Roman soldiers on the clay court was nothing short of brilliance.

But it was on you. If you are a fan of this country’s historical relics, you will begin craving the game of baseball. I missed a sport that allows an average, out-of-shape man like John Kruk to accomplish something. I badly desired baseball’s organic melding of reflex speed, muscular explosion, and small motor skills, creating a one-of-a-kind masterpiece. Over its 125 year histiory, baseball has been the layered brush strokes of Picasso. Like a complex wine with flowering aromas and a lashing finish, baseball has relished in its cult-athlete — a player who would gladly draw phallic members on Thomas Kinkade’s cookie-cutter, Pollyanna bull shit.

An MLB player was never mister nice guy.

In the 1950’s, any person with the balls to heckle Ted Williams was showered by his browned, tobacco sludge. It was a way for TD to get back at his hecklers. And the man was meticulous. He studied pitchers, and swung the bat for hours everyday. A throwback professional who loved the game, practiced everything from the monotonous initial step to swing, to hip placement, and each step beyond.

The man didn’t hit .344 over a 19 year career without putting the work in. And that kind of passion created an intense fansmanship from the league. The man set in place baseball’s eternal politico, one glorifying the purist.

When  seeing monsters hitting it out thirty to forty times a year, Americans also accepted that they had to take every thing on the market to do so. Watching man-children striking out once a day, and collect hefty sums of dollars back fired. The problem with the “power era” philosophy is that it caused ticket prices to rise, and in the end, left the riled fan with the short end of the deal.

With every 450-foot bomb, the ghost of Ted Williams turned over in his glorious grave.

…thank God he did not have to shed his wrath…

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We have been saved by a handful of non-conformists. They are what I call baseballs fab five: Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Gonzalez. All, without question, are the most dominant players in today’s game, combining for 5 MVP awards, 5 gold glove awards, and 22 all-star games.

Their modern day recipe for creating an MLB superstar is power, defensive ability, average, and larger than life persona.

1. Power: Pujols is the best of the five. For most of his ten-year career in St. Louis, Pujols has hit balls out with a larger than life authority, lacking a star hitting in front or behind him. He has averaged 41 home runs per year, and has never hit less than 32. If we were to judge players by their first ten years in the league, Pujols is arguably the greatest hitter to ever play this game.

Gonzalez is another worth mentioning out the “fab five,” because of his lack of support in San Diego. In his first five full seasons the slugger has said goodbye to 32 so-called offerings a year. If you take into consideration that no other Padre over the last five years has hit more than 21 homeruns, you will begin to understand what makes Gonzalez so great. HE DOES IT ON HIS OWN. He is the consummate slugger, causing pitchers to shake in their cleats.

Other totals by elite long-ball threats from last season include: Cabrera with 38, Hamilton with 32 in just 133 games, and Votto with 37 while Brandon Phillips was the only other actual threat in the Reds lineup.

2) Defensive Ability: All five are stalwarts defensively, but Pujols and Gonzalez set the bar. Gonzalez, a back to back gold glove award winner from 2008 to 2009, was not only sought out by the Red Sox this off-season because of his left-handed power, but because of his ability to fill a much-needed defensive hole for the Sox with his glove at first base. In 2010, Gonzalez was 2nd in the NL in putouts, and 3rd in assists.

Pujols is also a two time gold glove winner with the Cardinals. In 2010, the star led the league in assist and put-outs at first base. For much of Pujols’ career, his defensive abilities have been overlooked because of his offensive dominance.

3) Batting Average: All five are fantastic. Last season, the worst of the five was Gonzalez, who hit an unashamed .298 while driving in 101 runs. Pujols did as Pujols does; give pitchers headaches. Over his ten-year career,  Pujols has hit .331, never striking out more than 92 times. Last season Cabrera quietly hit .328 with his partner in crime, Magglio Ordonez only a mere shadow of himself. This set him apart in the American League, finishing 2nd in MVP voting. Cabrera for his career has hit .313 and driven in an average of 120 runs in his seven year career. Hamilton won his 1st MVP award in the American League last season hitting .359 with 100 runs driven in, in again, a shortened season due to injury. Votto’s season was perhaps most impressive considering he had no help in the Reds lineup. The reigning NL MVP hit .324 and drove in 113 runs.

4) Larger than Life persona: It is impossible to give this area some form of quantitative analysis. What I can tell you, however, is that Pujols is the greatest player of his generation. He is the leagues biggest face on and off the field. He has the power to sway MLB opinion and the perspective on the sport by the fans. Whether it is true or not, Pujols has been glorified as a “clean” superstar, who has done it all through hard work and true dedication to his craft. His throwback image is used quite often by the league promoting its “drug free,” policy.

Josh Hamilton’s dominance is down right scary. In 133 games, Hamilton hit .359 last season with 32 home runs and 100 runs batted in. I believe Hamilton is the new face of the American League, as a guy who not only dominates with his bat, but has proven his worth and sustainability by kicking his drug habit.  He has essentially become a hero to many beyond the straight-edge.

Joey Votto is the sure favorite to win his 2nd NL MVP award this season. If the Reds make the playoffs with pretty much the same team as last season, and Votto has a season like last season, he will continue to build a legacy as a guy who accomplishes things as the face of an organization. You cannot get any larger than that.

Adrian Gonzalez is set to have the most dominate season of his career. Lefty’s fair better in Fenway hitting away from the green monster. Gonzalez is the central piece in a stacked lineup with Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and David Ortiz. He will get more pitches to hit and could jack more than forty this season.

Many will disagree, but Miguel Cabrera embodies this larger than life persona as well. A star has the ability to shine without the fans’ approval of them. And Cabrera shines. His DUI has been the biggest story of this off-season, acting as a driving point for the media circus. Cabrera has ignored it, kicked his habit again, and is focused for another dominate year. With Ordonez back in the lineup and looking to again prove himself after an off-year, Cabrera  should have the best season of his famed career, and win the AL MVP award.

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For those of you who abandoned the MLB after the 1994 strike, I urge you to come back. I understand your complaints. For too long the league had been glorifying overrated PED-hungry athletes. But the five described above are giving purists like me some hope. No, the league will never return to those beautiful days when a fan felt like “one” with is favorite star – but we can evolve and re-direct the trajectory of this historical game.

I have hope for the first time in years. Hope in the diamond’s version of the “fab-five.”