In the longest game in their history in Division I, Cal Poly hung close with Big West rival UC Davis, but the Aggies scored 17 points in the third overtime period to pull away and win 92-84 on Thursday night at Mott Athletics Center.

The loss drops Cal Poly’s record in Conference play to 3-9, tied for 7th place, but just one game ahead of the 9th spot in the conference. With games against CSUN (next Thursday) and at UC Riverside (a week after that) on the horizon, Cal Poly nearly clawed out of the hole and vaulted themselves into sole posession of 7th place. Instead, the Mustangs were left wondering what happened. 

Cal Poly shouldn’t have been in the game at all. After failing to make a field goal for nearly eight minutes in the game, the Mustangs, miraculously, were only behind by nine points at halftime — a reasonable deficit for a team that only scored 18 points in the period. 

In the second half, Cal Poly seemed to have snatched the momentum. With 3:10 left in the game, Aleks Abrams made a layup to put Cal Poly up by five points. — their largest lead. Just 19 seconds later, UC Davis got Michael Onyebalu an open look from deep that he knocked down. After a missed shot, the Aggies’ Rogers Printup made another three. In two possessions, Cal Poly’s five point lead had turned into a one point deficit.

The triple overtime game was the first since the early 80’s for a program that moved to Division I in the 90’s. 

Clutch moments

There are bound to be tons of clutch moments in a triple overtime game. Down by two points with 11 seconds left, Siler Schneider made two free throws for UC Davis. The first two overtimes featured the two teams going a combined 10-10 from the free throw line. After another Onyebalu three pointer put Davis up by three points in the final minute of the second extra frame, Luke Meikle answered with an open triple with 36 seconds to go to effectively earn the third overtime. 

Third time’s a charm

After scoring just 11 points total in the first two overtimes, UC Davis exploded for 17 in the final period. Siler Schneider scored the first four points of the third OT. Schneider had 8 of his 16 points during the third OT. Onyebalu finished with a game-high 24 points on 5-7 from three point range for UC Davis.

No Chima, no problem

Still without the preseason player of the year favorite Chima Moneke, UC Davis was outrebounded 53-41 (17-9 on the offensive glass), but still managed to hold onto the win. One reason was the turnover disparity. Cal Poly committed 21 — three games’ worth just a few years ago — while UC Davis turned it over just 13 times. The Aggies also held a 27-12 advantage in points off turnovers. 

Mustang leaders

Luke Meikle led the Mustangs with 21 points. Victor Joseph shot just 2-7 from three point range, but managed 19 points and three assists. Donovan Fields, who was hobbled with foul trouble all night, shot just 1-8 from the field for 4 points to go along with 8 rebounds and 6 assists. Kuba Niziol came to play, shooting all 12 of his shots from distance and making five of them for 15 points and seven rebounds. 

Two unlikely sources of production and crunch time minutes were Aleks Abrams and Trevor John. Abrams came off the bench to notch his first career double-double (11 points, 11 rebounds). The junior from Oaks Christian High School also notched three blocks in the game. John made a two-pointer, 2-3 from deep, and a pair of free throws for 10 points. 

Davis D

UC Davis’ defense was pretty well-executed in this game. The Aggies worked hard for 55 minutes to deny Cal Poly passes. There were possessions late in the game after Fields fouled-out where the Mustangs had a difficult time moving the ball beyond their three point line. 

The proof is in the numbers too. Cal Poly shot just 34.7 percent from the field for the game and just 32.5 percent from two point range. 

No rest for the weary

Cal Poly will host UC Irvine (8-4, 13-15, second place) on Saturday night. The Anteaters will be stinging still from a low-scoring loss at Hawai’i. Cal Poly fans will hope that UCI is road-weary — there are no direct flights to SLO from Hawai’i. 

Cal Poly out-rebounded UC Davis on Thursday night, but UC Irvine is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Look for Cal Poly’s big-man play on Saturday. It could be the fulcrum of Cal Poly’s ability to leverage their way into another home conference win. 

Photos by Owen Main.

For more photos click here. If you just want to contribute to the cause, Venmo @Owen-Main or paypal owen@fansmanship.com. 

The Big West is not top-heavy this year. Or maybe it’s all top-heavy. There is no one team that has clearly separated itself from the rest. UC Irvine has the pedigree. UC Davis has Chima. Cal State Fullerton has a big three. Long Beach State has history and the conference’s most experienced coach. Hawai’i has a steady hand and a bunch of steady dudes on a roster that makes sense. UCSB may have the best overall talent and a fresh new coach that is probably both an advantage and disadvantage early in the conference season. 

On a given night there are 2-3 AMAZING games in the conference. Basically, this race is shaping up to be a mid-major Royal Rumble cage match where only one team will be left standing. 

So let’s continue the metaphor (not a simile — I didn’t use like or as). Which team matches up with which WWF early-90’s wrestler?

Hawai’i (4-1)

Hawai’i is 3-1 in conference play. Eron Ganot’s program has transitioned into one with players who also know their roles and play mostly sound basketball. For me, they are Shawn Michaels. The Heartbreak Kid was a solid wrestling personality. Hawai’i is a solid basketball team. (I picked them 4th going into the season.) That said, they are also very confident. They like to jaw and trash talk. They maybe think they’re better than they are, though they might be just that good. 

While you could probably say it about any wrestler, the irrational confidence and all-around classic personality of this team reminded me of Michaels. 

Cal State Fullerton (4-2) 

The Titans are off to their best start in years. They have three very good players at their core with a supporting cast that understands their roles. Fullerton knows exactly who they are and aren’t. They do a few things really well and playing against them is like staring into the cold eyes of The Undertaker. The Undertaker is big and physical and knows exactly who he is. He joined WWF in 1990 — a sort of new kid on the block at our targeted time period. So, too, are Cal State Fullerton. 

Long Beach State (4-2)

I used to never pick Dan Monson’s team out of the top 4. They were always in the hunt for a conference title and a chance at the conference’s NCAA tournament bid. Some of the sheen is off Long Beach State. Recent years have brought transfers in and out, but they still play the toughest non-conference schedule and probably have the biggest overall revenue of any program in the conference. For that, this team is the Million Dollar Man, Ted DiBiase. DiBiase’s upfront capitalist attitude (“Everybody’s got a price!”) made so many people uncomfortable and made him a classic heel. 

DiBiase’s character didn’t just elicit emotional responses. He made you introspective about why you did or didn’t like him. He brought all your own moral defects to your conscious mind. In the end, you had to respect the character because he did what he did. At some point, as a fan, you knew what was coming.

UCSB (3-2) 

In a week, UCSB could be right back on top of the conference. For me, they are still the team to beat, though currently they’re in SIXTH place. SIXTH. 

Because of their big start, UCSB is Hulk Hogan. Even into the early 90’s, Hogan was still dominant and still a good guy. Eventually he turned, but the bright yellow hulk tank from ’92 screams Isla Vista to me. 

Oh yeah, Brother!

Really though, Hulk Hogan was a centerpiece of WWF for most of two decades and UCSB has a rich history and is still the favorite in my mind. The Gauchos as Hulk just makes sense to me. 

UC Davis (3-2) 

UC Davis was my preseason #1 pick. Jim Les has an intense game demeanor that, under the surface, I know is basically Ric Flair. The Nature Boy was a top-3 dominant personality in the sport for years. Kids at my high school used to put up both hands and go WOOOOOOOOOO on a regular basis. One of our student body presidents used to read the announcements in homage to Flair just about every morning. 

A few years ago, I might have picked Long Beach State to be Flair. They were the team who was always there — year after year. Davis has become that team now. They have the marquee talent in the conference in Chima Monecke. They have worked hard to get relevant and they’ll do everything they can to stay there, even if it means turning heel sometimes. 

UC Irvine (3-3)

Russell Turner continues to amaze. He’s lost two seven-footers in recent years, but still boasts the biggest team in the conference in the paint. Between Jonathon Galloway, Tommy Rutherford, Elston Jones, and Brad Greene, UCI’s power forward nearly always has a post-up advantage against the opponent. Last night, the Anteaters outscored Cal Poly 44-16 in the paint. UCI has talented guards too, but for me they are Big Boss Man. 

Big Boss Man was, first and foremost, big. He didn’t let anybody get away with anything, and that’s the way UCI has played over the past 3-5 years. The Anteaters take advantage of opponents’ mistakes and don’t let them get away with anything either. To beat the Big Boss Man, you had to be on the top of your game. Same with UCI this season. 

CSUN (2-3)

I didn’t really know where to put the Matadors, so I enlisted some help. Ghizal Hasan, their radio voice, said Razor Ramon would be a good choice. So we’ll go with Ramon. 

Ramon was good times. CSUN can be good times too when things are going well. The hair is amazing. I had one other person vote for Hardy Boys for CSUN. 

Cal Poly (1-4)

The Mustangs won their first game in wild fashion, and thank goodness they did. Cal Poly has since lost three straight including last night in Irvine. They are at their best when their games are a little weird. They have some very specialized skills, and also some very specific weaknesses. 

I couldn’t find anywhere to put them, so maybe they’re Sgt. Slaughter. Maybe it works. Cal Poly is a pretty conservative campus overall. 

As a Cal Poly fan, I’ll say this — Sgt. Slaughter isn’t afraid of anybody. Neither is Cal Poly. Sgt. Slaughter is self-made. Lots of Cal Poly guys are too — many are JUCO transfers or transfers from other larger programs. Yeah, I think Sgt. Slaughter is a decent proxy for the Mustangs. 

UC Riverside (0-5)

I don’t want to pile-on. This group lost their head coach on New Year’s Day. They’ve been without their star point guard for all of conference play so far. What wrestler should UCR be?!

I thought about this one not very much, but the guy who I haven’t gotten on this list yet is Jake “The Snake” Roberts. Since it’s pretty unorthodox to fire a coach midseason, and having a huge python in the ring is also pretty uncommon, maybe this is a match made in heaven. Jake the Snake. 

Dude, how did they let Macho Man get bit by Jake’s snake? Holy crap. 

Big West season is upon us! Owen and Nick give their first-half All-Big West players and talk through the tiers of teams as it stands at the moment. Cal Poly plays UCSB and Cal State Fullerton in Mott Athletics Center this week. 

All the pre-conference games have been played. Rust has been knocked-off. New players have been integrated into teams. Big West schools have played a huge range of opponents from BCS conferences, NAIA, Division II, and others.

On Wednesday night, six of the nine conference schools will tip-off their 16-game Big West season, hoping to earn a top seed in the Big West Tournament, which takes place March 9-11 at the Honda Center in Anaheim.

Here are a few pages I’ll be using consistently. I recommend you get a subscription to KenPom.com if you haven’t already.

CBS Sports strength of schedule

KenPom.com

Big West Men’s Basketball page

Let’s take a look at each team’s preseason, how they’ve done, and what it means for the next 10 weeks.

UC Davis Link to Team’s Site

Record: 8-7

Strength of Schedule – 301/351

KenPom Ranking – 229/351 (3rd in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 5th

UC Davis has the best record this year in the Big West’s non-conference. While several other Big West teams have a top-100 non-conference schedule this season, the Aggies have gotten used to winning against teams who largely play at the level of many Big West Schools.

6’6″ Junior forward Chima Moneke — a JUCO transfer who is originally from Australia — has been a revelation for head coach Jim Les. Moneke leads the team in both scoring (14.9 ppg) and rebounding (8.3 rpg) and is one frontrunner for the Big West’s newcomer of the year award. Brynton Lemar, Seiler Schneider, and Darius Graham all shoot 39 percent or better from three point range, giving  Moneke and super senior JT Adenrele room to operate down low. Adenrele is second on the team in rebounding, with five per game.

Cal State Fullerton Link to Team’s Website

Record: 6-7

Strength of Schedule: 325/351

KenPom Ranking: 291/351 (8th in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 6th

Dedrique Taylor’s squad this year has been generally competitive, if a little inconsistent this year. They have four Division I wins, including against a few average Division I teams — but they’ve also lost against Alabama State – ranked 335/351 on KenPom.com. Senior Tre Coggins is averaging over 20 points per game and could be a sleeper Big West Player of the Year candidate. Sophomore Khalil Ahmad has played in just two games (16.5 ppg), but figures to pair with Coggins to make Fullerton’s back court one of the best in the conference offensively.

Jackson Rowe, a 6′ 7″ freshman from Toronto, leads the team in rebounding and he and Lionheart Leslie both average in double digits in scoring. A combination of conference parody, great guards, and some program consistency means this year’s Fullerton team may finally be ready to start to fulfill Taylor’s vision for the program and compete for a spot in the top half of the conference.

Hawai’i Link to Team’s Website

Record: 6-7

Strength of Schedule: 286/351

KenPom Ranking: 261/351 (5th in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 8th

With a year to plan for the Rainbow Warriors’ postseason ban in 2017, head coach Eron Ganot and co. saw some familiar faces leave this past offseason, including center Stefan Jovanovic (Loyola Marymount).

In this, a rebuilding year, Hawai’i has beaten a number of the bottom 20-50 Division I teams in the country. A number of new faces lead Hawai’i this year, including Australian Jack Purchase — an Auburn transfer — JUCO transfer F Gibson Johnson, and senior UCLA transfer Noah Allen, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding.

Look for Hawai’i to be in games throughout the conference season. They’re not as talented as last year, but a record at or above .500 for conference would not be a surprise given Ganot’s pedigree. Even though they are ineligible for postseason play, Ganot’s team should keep up in a down year in the Big West.

If you want to read more about Hawai’i, Brian McInnis is a great read in the Holonolu Star Advertiser.

UC Irvine Link to Team’s Website

Record: 7-9

Strength of Schedule: 81/351

KenPom Ranking: 181/351 (First in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 2nd 

Russell Turner’s team has become a perennial Big West contender. Sure, the departed Mamadou Ndiaye had something to do with that, but senior Luke Nelson was this author’s preseason pick for Big West Player of the Year. Nelson, out with injury for much of the preseason, would have made a difference in Irvine’s pre-conference record. Irvine’s top-100 strength of schedule makes their 7-9 record without Nelson actually really good.

In Nelson’s absence, Jaron Martin has shown marked improvement from last year as the team’s leading scorer at 14.3 points per game over the first 16. Martin is a notorious clutch shooter, making UC Irvine’s backcourt tandem really, really good.

Without Ndiaye, look for Ioannis Dimakopoulos to go to work inside. A 7′ 2″ senior, Dimakopoulos averages 10 points and four rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. Jonathan Galloway, listed at 6′ 10″ (did he grow?!), plays good defense and is a role player that great teams need to have.

There is a next generation of UCI players that fans will see this season too. Max Hazzard and Eyassu Worku — freshman guards also recruited by other Big West schools, along with 6′ 8″ freshman forward Tommy Rutherford will see lots of minutes for the Anteaters.

Add up the star power, depth, discipline, leadership and athleticism, and the Anteaters are one of the top two teams going into conference play — if not the best.

Cal Poly Link to Team’s Website

Record: 5-9

Strength of Schedule: 236/351

KenPom Ranking: 270/351 (7th in the Big West)

Preseason Big West Media Poll: 9th

It’s weird that Cal Poly has played at three Pac 12 schools and still has a SOS as low as they do, but here they are.

Joe Callero’s team was already thin enough for the Mustangs to be picked 9th in the preseason media poll, but they’ve also lost probably their two best players in the preseason. Josh Martin only played in five games before a season-ending foot injury. Guard Jaylen Shead — the team leader in assists — left the program as soon as finals were done.

What Callero is left with is a weird situation. The Mustangs basically start three point guards (some combination of Kyle Toth, Ridge Shipley, Victor Joseph, and Donovan Fields), a stretch-four (Luke Meikle), and a defense/rebounding specializing center (Zach Gordon, Aleks Abrams, or Hank Hollingsworth).

Joseph, Fields, Toth, and Hollingsworth have never played in a Big West Conference game before and only Shipley, Meikle, and Gordon have seen consistent minutes.

Things might pivot on Meikle’s ability to carry the load both in rebounding and scoring in the half-court against athletic defenders in the Big West.

Cal Poly’s roster is weird and they haven’t won a game in the four since Shead left, but Callero and his staff often do their best work when things get weird. With as small as this team is, a lot will ride on their ability to defend the paint, rebound, and make three pointers. Look for the 40 percent mark from downtown and free throw differential to be good barometers of how the Mustangs are playing on a given night.

Long Beach State Link to Team’s Website

Record: 5-11

Strength of Schedule: 32/351

KenPom Ranking: 188/351 (2nd in the Big West)

Preseason Big West Media Poll: 1st

Dan Monson’s team always plays one of the toughest pre-conference schedules in the country, and this season was no different. After losing to a number of great teams early in the season, the 49ers rattled off back-to-back wins at Oregon State and at home against Colorado State.

Long Beach brings back firepower in Evan Payne and Gabe Levin — former Loyola Marymount players who transferred to Long Beach. Payne is a pure scorer (14.5 ppg) and Levin does a lot of dirty work, averaging 12.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest.

Noah Blackwell, Roschon Prince, and Temidayo Yussuf are all solid rotation players who do a lot of work on both ends of the floor.

The heartbeat of Long Beach State, though, is 5’8″ Justin Bibbins. A junior this year, Bibbins was a vocal leader on the court as an underclassman last season. Bibbins was injured at the end of the Colorado State win on December 22nd and didn’t play at Eastern Michigan. His ability to be full-speed will mean A LOT for a Long Beach State team that is battle-tested and ready to compete for a Big West title once again.

They’ll get a test right out of the gate, facing UC Irvine on Thursday night in Irvine. The game will be an ESPN3 production.

CSUN Link to Team’s Website

Record: 4-9

Strength of Schedule: 139/351

KenPom Ranking: 239/351 (4th in Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 3rd

Reggie Theus‘ team has been one of the hardest to figure out thus far. With a bevy of transfers from schools in power conferences, CSUN was poised to make a big improvement this year. Maybe they still are.

They still have those talented players. Rakim Lubin (UCONN), Darin Johnson (Washington) Kendall Smith (UNLV), Reggie Theus Jr. (South Carolina) and Dylan Johns (Texas A&M) are all contributing this year. Tavrion Dawson is a talented wing player too.

But inconsistent pre-conference play has given reason for pause. Losses to teams like UCLA and Texas A&M don’t look bad, but the loss to Bethesda at home is a real head-scratcher. Maybe senior Aaron Parks (11.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists per game), who didn’t play in the Bethesda game, really means that much to the Matadors.

This team will go as far as it is willing to stay disciplined on defense. The Matadors will get their 75 or so points (they average almost 80 per game so far), but their ability to limit turnovers and get defensive stops will be the difference between a winning or losing conference record.

UC Riverside Link to Team’s Website

Record: 2-9

Strength of Schedule: 131/351

KenPom Ranking: 301/351 (9th in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 7th

There’s no doubt about it, UC Riverside has struggled this preseason. Before December 31st, they hadn’t beaten a Division I team this year. But on New Years Eve, they hosted Grand Canyon, a top-200 team, and came away with a victory at the SRC.

The win may be a building block for a team looking for positives.

Secean Johnson is the team’s scoring and rebounding leader at 11.4 points and 5 rebounds per game. Gentry Thomas and Chance Murray are the other Highlanders averaging double-figure points. Dikymbe Martin, a freshman guard from local high school JW North, might be the most interesting player on the team. Martin leads the team in assists and steals and averages 8.5 points per game.

With their overall performance this year, it’s hard to see UC Riverside finishing near the top half of the conference, but the league is so weird this year that anybody could convince themselves they belong in the top four.

UC Santa Barbara Link to Team’s Website

Record: 2-10 

Strength of Schedule: 34/351

KenPom Ranking: 269/351 (6th in the Big West)

Preseason Media Poll: 4th

It’s unusual to see Bob Williams teams struggle, but struggle this year’s squad has. Their only Division I win was against Cal State Bakersfield and losses to San Diego and Seattle weren’t particularly good. In the Seattle game over winter break, the Gauchos gave up a 20-point lead with 9:09 left in the game to lose at the Thunderdome.

Things aren’t all doom and gloom in Goleta, though. UCSB has played the 34th toughest schedule this season and it would be easy to see Williams’ players improving and adjusting as they got into conference. This year’s team is led by junior Gabe Vincent — a sharp shooter deluxe who averages 16.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. Junior Jalen Canty is a big 6’8″ JUCO transfer from San Francisco who was the California JUCO Player of the Year last season. He averages 10 points and seven rebounds for the Gauchos while sharpshooting freshman Max Heidegger (Oaks Christian High School) is averaging nine points. Senior Eric Childress leads the team with 3.8 assists per game.

It’s always hard to imagine UCSB near or at the bottom of the Big West when the dust settles, so don’t be surprised if you see them seeded in the 4-6 range in the conference tournament, despite their slow start.

On Saturday afternoon, Cal Poly baseball finished one of the weirder seasons in my recent memory with a 10-5 win over UC Davis at Baggett Stadium. The win moved the Mustangs’ record to 9-9 in Big West play and 32-25 overall.

Saturday might have been Justin Calomeni’s final game on the mound at Baggett Stadium. He is a junior and is draft-eligible By Owen Main

On the one hand, Cal Poly started conference play with series wins over UCSB and Cal State Fullerton and looked like they might have a shot at the Big West. On the other hand, the Mustangs sputtered the at Long Beach State and CSUN en route to a 9-9 finish in Big West play.

On the one hand, the Mustangs pitchers looked dominant at times. On the other hand, their entire starting rotation was suspended for a whole weekend in the middle of conference play.

On the one hand, the Mustangs had a winning record for the season. On the other hand, the team committed 83 errors in 57 games. That was the most Cal Poly has made since Larry Lee’s first season, when the team made 97 errors. You get the idea.

In most years Cal Poly has been successful enough to sniff postseason play — especially since the bats were deadened at the college level, the number of errors has been close to the number of games — somewhere in the 50’s or 60’s. Defense will absolutely be a theme going into next season.

When Coach Lee says, “it’s about damn time”

A photo posted by Connor O’Hare (@cpohare13) on May 31, 2016 at 6:43pm PDT

A nice senior day

Under sunny blue skies, senior John Schuknecht started senior day with a three-RBI double in the first inning and fellow senior Connor O’Hare finished the day with an RBI triple in the 8th inning — O’Hare’s first extra base hit as a Mustang. It was a great moment. Redshirt junior Brett Barbier was also a contributor, scoring a run in the first inning and drawing three walks in the game.

John Schuknecht started his final game at Cal Poly off with a 3-RBI double in the first inning. By Owen Main

Pitching Promise

A total of 10 different Cal Poly pitchers started games in 2016, and nine of them will likely be back. Early-on in conference play, it looked like Kyle Smith, Erich Uelmen, and Jarred Zill were locks. Other pitchers like Spencer Howard, Craig Colen, and Justin Bruihl could all make strides and compete for starting roles in 2017.

Here’s looking at next year

Cal Poly needs a few things position-wise and probably has some good players coming in. Here’s a list of incoming freshman next year. Defense will certainly be a focus as Larry Lee assembles his team next season. Two later additions include Elijah Skipps and Jack Kuzma. Skipps is a power-hitter who will probably be a big, strong DH or corner infielder in the tradition of Brian Mundell. He spent his first year at Arizona before bouncing over to Cypress College. Mustang fans will hope Skipps will be able to replace some of the pop left by players like Mundell and John Schuknecht over the past year.

Extremely blessed to say that I will be attending Cal Poly SLO to further my baseball career! ?⚾️ #GoStangs pic.twitter.com/cO71csmpHE

— Elijah Skipps (@eliskipps) May 1, 2016

I was hoping Brett Barbier would be back next year. The redshirt junior went through senior day festivities and will be graduating. By Owen Main

For his part, Kuzma was listed as a shortstop, and a shortstop is something Cal Poly desperately needs. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Brett Binning. His positive energy was a big reason Cal Poly has a winning record this year. He did an all-right job defensively in his role this season, but he doesn’t have the strongest bat and is probably more of a backup player who can fill multiple infield positions. Kyle Marinconz also did OK, but he’s a natural second-baseman and should continue to mash next year from second base.

Shortstop will be key next season and there will be a few Mustangs battling to show Larry Lee they have what it takes.

In the end, I got to 22 of Cal Poly’s 31 home games while my wife had our second child midseason. Because of that, I wasn’t able to post as much as I wanted to via the website. Still, hopefully I managed to be somewhat informative and maybe informed on Twitter throughout the year.

Here’s to a great offseason. Fall ball is just a few months away for these guys… .

Randomness

They say it’s not healthy to think of what could have been. Nobody ever said I was always healthy though.

A few Cal Poly players have been drafted and signed by professional teams before they could get on-campus over the past few years. Logan Webb is a Giants farmhand currently in Augusta — a team Chase Johnson pitched for a few years ago. He’s still figuring things out it looks like, but then again, he’s only 19 years old.

Luke (Lucas) Williams is a shortstop that the Mustangs had signed. He’s played 38 games in the Gulf Coast League this year and is listed as a third baseman. His stats can be found here.

Photos by Owen Main. To view all photos from 2016, click here. 

Hi,

So the Big West Tournament starts in about four hours, and I am hoping to give my daily picks as to who is going to win each game, and I have a hunch, each game is going to be chosen for some insane reason, because I am a crazy person (which I have said several times in my posts).  Okay, no time like the present, so let’s get to some picks.

The longest-tenured Big West head coach, Bob Williams looks to avoid an upset at the hands of his former team. By Owen Main

Game #1: #4 U.C. Santa Barbara vs. #5 U.C. Davis

The Bob Williams Bowl!  Yes, Bob Williams used to coach at UC Davis, and led them to the (Division II) National Championship in 1998 as you can read about here A guy I played with in high school actually started on that team.  That means nothing to what I am currently writing, just felt like saying it.

This was like twenty years ago now, and I am sure there is almost no bad blood between the two teams, so this one is kind of a toss-up.  That being said I have to pick someone, so I am going to say the Aggies get revenge on the man who created them a la Kylo Ren killing Han Solo (this is no longer a spoiler when the film makes billions of dollars).

pick: UC Davis

Game #2: #1 Hawaii vs. #8 Cal State Fullerton

This doesn’t need to take long.

pick: Hawaii

Game #3: #2 UC Irvine vs. #7 Cal Poly

Now, as a “journalist” (that just sounds weird when talking about myself), I need to be unbiased here, and call this game the way I see it, but as a Cal Poly alumnus, it’s really hard to go against the Mustangs.  In reality, UC Irvine is the pick here.  They have a legit argument for making the tournament if they don’t win the conference tournament, and they will be playing post-season basketball regardless.  They have NBA talent on their team, and the Mustangs really don’t have anyone who can match up with their big three.

pick: Cal Poly

Game #4: #3 Long Beach State vs. UC Riverside

The nightcap, which features probably the greatest mascot match up, which is saying a lot based on the other match ups, but I mean 49ers vs. Higlanders (seriously why have I not written a post about the Highlander mascot and the Highlander movies.  That’s coming). That being said, Pound State (LBS) would be the top team in the conference if UC Irvine or Hawaii didn’t exist, so…

pick: Strong Beach

Those are my picks for today!  Check back tomorrow for the next round.  Now as my homegirl Heidi Klum says: Let’s start the show!

After grinding out a 58-53 win against UC Davis on Thursday night, Cal Poly men’s basketball rallied from a 14 point deficit with 11 minutes to play, but fell in overtime to CSUN 75-71. After splitting the two home games last weekend, the Mustangs are now 10-16 overall and 4-9 in Big West Conference play.

Reese Morgan has been heating up lately. By Owen Main

Morgan heating-up

It’s nice to see Reese Morgan playing well. The fifth-year senior guard has scored in double-digits in each of Cal Poly’s last six games and is averaging 18 points per game over his last four. When he can spot-up and get more open shots, Morgan can be as deadly a shooter as anybody, but it’s been hard for him without a ton of other creators on the floor. Jaylen Shead’s increased minutes (see below) have provided a nice back court compliment for Reese.

Shead seeing more time

Freshman point guard Jaylen Shead is getting more minutes, and they seem to be paying off. Shead is athletic and strong enough to keep opposition guards in front of him and also rebounds very well for a point guard. Over the weekend, Shead averaged 6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. He has shown he can make free throws in the clutch and given Joe Callero no reason to take him out. He’s played 25-plus minutes in each of the past seven games and played 30-plus minutes in each of the past three.

Jaylen Shead has had an increased presence on the floor over the past few games. By Owen Main

Awards Banquet

Cal Poly will hold their awards banquet a little earlier than normal this year. On Friday night, the team and public will gather at the PAC to name their award winners and to honor retiring play-by-play announcer Tom Barket. Barket has been with Cal Poly for about a decade, calling football, basketball, and baseball for over half that time. Tom has always been great to this website, contributing on the podcast at least 3-4 times, and I know I’ll miss him around Cal Poly sports.

Mott Mania

Cal Poly’s final contest of the season at Mott Athletics Center will be Saturday night when they face Cal State Fullerton. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00pm.

The Mustangs are 5-6 at home so far this season (10-16 overall) and will try to clinch a .500 home record with a victory against the Titans.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!

With Saturday’s loss, Cal Poly will have a losing record in the Big West for the third consecutive season, but not all hope is lost. Two years ago, the Mustangs finished conference play 6-10 and was a seven seed in the conference tournament when they won four games in a row and made it to the NCAA Tournament’s second round. It’s not something fans, coaches, or players can count on, but I guess it’s nice to know that it can be done.

Women win a pair

Cal Poly women’s basketball had a successful road weekend, beating Cal State Fullerton and CSUN on the road. Their conference record now stands at 6-7 as they fight for a higher seed in next month’s Big West Tournament.

Photos from the UC Davis game by Owen Main. Click here to see all photos.

I wrote a conference preview for the Big West a few months ago. Now it’s the New Year, which means it’s time to revisit the conference, see what’s changed, and get a good idea about who’s really going to have a chance to contend.

Two teams have raised their profile over the rest: Hawai’i and UC Irvine. The Rainbow Warriors will not be able to participate in the postseason, but Eran Ganot has them already buying in and playing really great basketball.

Coming off their first Big West Tournament title, UC Irvine is again poised to be the favorite. What about everyone else? Read below to find out where they stand going into Big West play.

Since transfers are such a part of the Big West, I’ll also look at what players who didn’t spend their first college season at each school have contributed so far — especially newcomers to their respective school.

Hawai’i (11-2 overall)

(10-1 at home, 0-1 on the road). For the last year, Hawai’i has been under the cloud of an NCAA investigation. While they should be able to move on under first-year head coach Eran Ganot, it looks like they’ll be out of the postseason NEXT year. Read this article to get more details about the sanctions.

Who they’ve beaten

Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nevada, Nicholls State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UH-Hilo, Hawai’i Pacific, Northern Iowa, Auburn, Mississippi Valley State, Howard

Best win

Their schedule isn’t the TOUGHEST, but they’ve played some good teams. Beating the SEC’s Auburn was definitely their biggest win of the season.

Who they’ve lost to

@Texas Tech and Oklahoma, by eight and three points respectively.

Worst loss

n/a – When you’re a Big West team and your only two losses are to Big 12 schools, you are probably feeling decent about yourself. Both Texas Tech and Oklahoma are top-50 teams, but Oklahoma is a top-10 squad. This is a year Hawai’i can absolutely win the Big West. With next year’s postseason ban, there may be some extra motivation there too.

What they’ve done well

They seem to have made a great coaching hire. Eran Ganot has had some possibile disciplinary issues early on, but the cupboard was anything but bare for the former Saint Mary’s assistant. Next year’s postseason ban will be hurt, but I’d look for him to keep strengthening his roster over the next few years despite the ban as Hawai’i comes out of NCAA purgatory.

What’s changed

Ganot. Also, Hawai’i has continued to score while playing better defense than a year ago. Four players average in double-digits and eight guys score more than five points per game. Aaron Valdes is averaging 15.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Valdes is one of a few early frontrunners for Big West Player of the Year.

Transfer game

Hawai’i’s roster boasts five transfers overall. Sai Tummala (Arizona State) has come off the bench to make 40 percent of his three-pointers so far this season. Roderick Bobbitt, the reigning Big West Player of the Week, is a senior who was a JuCo transfer last year. Bobbitt is averaging 12.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game.

The Rainbow Warriors haven’t gone on the road much yet this year and will start conference with a two-game homestand vs. the Central Coast’s Cal Poly and UCSB before boarding a plane to California.

UC Irvine (11-5)

If anybody thought Russell Turner’s team was going to have a let-down after a dominant Big West Tournament run last year, they were wrong. Mamadou Ndiaye is now leading the team in scoring, though the Anteaters play with balance and poise in a way that any of five guys could lead them in scoring on any given night.

Who they’ve beaten

UC San Diego, Loyola Marymount, UCF, Santa Clara, Boston College, Pacific, Utah State, Chapman, Sam Houston State, Norfolk State, New Mexico State

Best win

I guess it would have to be Boston College. They are in the biggest conference and they are probably as close to a top-150 team in the country as the Anteaters have beaten.

Who they’ve lost to

Boise State, Evansville, Saint Mary’s, Oregon, Kansas

Worst loss

They haven’t had any bad losses. Boise State is a clear top-100 team and is probably the one the Anteaters would really want back. It wasn’t a really bad loss though.

What they’ve done well

Defense. While UC Irvine’s offense is slightly above average, their defense is WAY above average — top 50 in the nation actually according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Mamadou Ndiaye is a force in the middle, but they can also play senior Mike best (6’10”) and junior Ioannis Dimakopoulos, who stands at 7’1″. Match that “no paint for you” defensive game with guards like Luke Nelson and Alex Young who flat-out know how to play, and there aren’t any discernible holes on UCI’s roster for the second straight year.

What’s changed

The Anteaters lost Will Davis II, but have plenty of front-line depth still and are still a very balanced team. Nothing’s really changed about the way I’m thinking about them this season — they’re still absolutely the favorites in the conference. I guess the best another team could hope for would be to get two of their giants into foul trouble and then attack the paint or something… . If you play timid against UCI, they’re always going to kill you.

Transfer game

Unusually for the Big West, UCI has only one transfer on their roster, not counting England-International player Luke Nelson, who is in his junior year and who started at UCI as a freshman.

Dominique Dunning is a 6’4″ guard who transferred from New Mexico. Dunning is averaging four points and three rebounds per game in 21 minutes on average.

UC Riverside (9-7 overall)

The Highlanders had two known commodities in Taylor Johns and Jaylen Bland coming into the 2015-16 season. Forward Taylor Johns averages about 15 points and almost nine rebounds per contest. At 6’7″, he’s a beast on the glass on both sides of the court. Jaylen Bland leads the team in scoring at over 17 points per game.

Who they’ve beaten

William Jessup, Santa Clara, Delaware State, Lamar, Northern Colorado, Abilene Christian, Life Pacific, Denver, Morgan State

Best win

Each one of UC Riverside’s Division I victories have come against schools that aren’t very good. In the past week, they’ve lost to two decent (but not great) teams in Ohio and Cal State Bakersfield. Neither of the games was very close. It’s almost a certainty that they’ll have several better wins during conference play. For them to finish in the top five as the preseason poll predicted, that will be a necessity.

Who they’ve lost to

San Francisco, Rice, Loyola Marymount, UNLV, Houston Baptist, Ohio, CSU Bakersfield

Worst loss

I’m going to say at Houston Baptist. Yes, it was on the road, but Houston Baptist is a top-300 team in Division I at-best right now. Their baseball team is great, but it’s a basketball team that another D-I team with a winning record should be able to handle.

UC Riverside’s strength of schedule so far is one of the worst in Division I college basketball, but if you think they won’t compete for a spot in the top half of the Big West, you’re wrong.

What they’ve done well

The Highlanders are a team who knows their identity. They have very clear leaders in Johns and Bland and what looks like a clear third option in Secean Johnson. The rest of the guys are role guys who are going to have to make open shots and help open things up for their stars. UC Riverside might be simple to scout, but their two or three best players are good enough that playing them definitely isn’t that simple.

What’s changed

The emergence of Johnson in the preseason is probably the biggest story for the Highlanders. Along with 11.6 points, he’s averaging 5.6 rebounds and taking pressure on both ends of the floor away from Taylor Johns. If Johns doesn’t have to work quite as hard throughout the game, he won’t be quite as gassed during crunch time, when the Highlanders will need him the most on both ends of the floor.

Transfer game

Almost all the key contributors on head coach Dennis Cutts’ roster are transfers. Jaylen Bland (Murray State, College of the Canyons) is their leading scorer in his second year at UCR.

Newcomers Secean Johnson (Seward County Community College, 11.6 ppg), Gentrey Thomas (Snow College, 6.9 ppg), and Malik Thames (Central Arizona Community College, 6.6 ppg) have provided over one third of the Highlanders’ offense this season as Dennis Cutts’ team might have a little more offensive poise and ability than a year ago overall. Primitivo Gomez (East Los Angeles College) has been a role player so far this year.

Chance Murray (Arizona State) will have to sit out this year per NCAA Transfer rules.

The big question will be how the winning record in the preseason against a fairly weak schedule plays out when they get into Big West play.

Cal State Fullerton (7-6)

Dedrique Taylor’s team has managed a .500 record so far this year, despite being picked last in the Big West preseason poll.

Who they’ve beaten

Pacific, San Diego, Southern Utah, Nevada, Cal State Dominguez Hills, Seattle, Cal State East Bay.

Best win

The Titans’ best win came November 28th at home against Nevada, who is probably a top-half team in Division I based on current returns.

Cal State Fullerton’s strength of schedule hasn’t been great, but it’s not as bad as UC Riverside’s so far this year. It’s in the bottom half of Division I, but probably appropriate for a program trying to get on the right track. Taylor has done a good job.

Who they’ve lost to

Washington, Loyola Marymount (twice), Oregon State, Portland, Portland State

Worst loss

The Titans’ worst loss so far was to Portland State. Lately, they haven’t been playing their best ball, losing their last five games. Portland State was probably a team Cal State Fullerton thought they should have beat.

What they’ve done well

Taylor’s team found a really good rhythm early-on. Tre Coggins uses a lot of their possessions and second-leading scorer Malcom Brooks is super efficient. Put those two up with Khalil Ahmad, and the Titans’ top-three scorers are averaging 40 percent-plus from three-point range. Whether they have the all around depth or consistency yet to compete every night is still a question, but Fullerton will flat-out surprise a team or three in conference play.

What’s changed

Taylor doesn’t like the transfer game, but he got some good ones (read below). Before the season started, he really liked the character of the guys he had this season, which counts for something — especially when you have it in talented guards who are upper classmen.

Transfer game

“I think the transfer game sucks,” Taylor told me before the season started, speaking of the general trend of players to transfer all over the place. That said, he’s benefited from a few really skilled transfers this season.

Tre Coggins (Air Force) and Malcom Brooks (Pepperdine) are the Titans’ two leading scorers. The best name in the Big West, Lionheart Leslie is a JuCo transfer, and there are three others on Taylor’s roster.

Cal Poly (6-7)

Who they’ve beaten

Cal State Monterey Bay, Austin Peay, UMBC, University of Antelope Valley, Fresno State, UTSA

Best win

Fresno State, going away. The Bulldogs are in the top third of Division I teams and the Mustangs hadn’t beaten them in SLO in over 30 years. The game is the blueprint for how Cal Poly feels they’re capable of playing this year.

Who they’ve lost to

UNLV, UCLA, IPFW, Saint Mary’s, USC, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Texas A&M

Worst loss

Five of Cal Poly’s losses would have been huge upsets had the Mustangs won. The two games Joe Callero would definitely like to have back are IPFW at home and at Texas A&M Corpus Christi. KenPom.com ranks both of those teams well below the Mustangs. The IPFW loss at home stings especially, since the Mastadons not only carved-up Cal Poly’s defense, but provided a blueprint for other teams with similar personnel to beat the Mustangs.

What they’ve done well

Joe Callero’s team goes 10 or 11 deep, and he’s used that to push the pace up above average — a far cry from recent years when Cal Poly’s defense and ball control on offense kept scores in the 50’s and low 60’s pretty often.

With scores in the 70’s now, the Mustangs are still controlling the ball fairly well. They don’t turn it over much, but then again they don’t force many turnovers either.

Cal Poly’s shooting the ball really well from three point range, too. They are the 39th-best three point shooting team in the country at just under 40 percent.

What’s changed

The pace is the main thing that’s changed. Cal Poly fans might be worried that the Mustangs ditched any idea about defense along with their slow pace. Cal Poly’s offense is pretty well in-place, but it will be there defense that will determine whether they have a successful conference season. Can they balance good defensive mojo with their offense that’s making Mike Wozniak have flashbacks to the Jeff Schneider days?

The other major question is whether a team that consistently plays as many guys as Joe Callero has played can stay consistent in conference. With so many guys who can play, Cal Poly may attempt to match-up on a nightly basis. If they don’t get a defensive identity soon, though, their conference season might not be as good as their roster and depth promised at the beginning of the season.

Transfer game

Luke Meikle transferred from Gonzaga in the summer of 2014 and is finally getting to play after not playing a game for the better part of 18 months. The 6’9″ redhead has shown a mature offensive game and is averaging 10 points per game, third-most on the Mustangs’ roster. Josh Martin started his Cal Poly career a few weeks ago as well and is still technically a freshman. He’ll give Cal Poly some front-court size, athleticism, and defensive energy at the small forward position as he gets his legs under him. He might even need to give the Mustangs minutes at the four position if Joel Awich has to miss any time after an apparent lower leg injury in their final conference tune-up at Texas A&M.

The only returning transfer on this Cal Poly roster is leading scorer and senior David Nwaba (Santa Monica College, 11.5 ppg).

UCSB (6-7)

Bob Williams teams always find ways to be really good by the time conference play rolls around and this year is no different. Playing a more guard-oriented offense, the Gauchos have begun to thrive of late and, coming off a win over Pac-12 Washington, UCSB will be really dangerous in the Big West.

Who they’ve beaten

Nebraska-Omaha, San Francisco, Iona, Washington, Seattle, Point Loma.

Best win

While Iona is arguably better right now, the win at Washington was a really big one. It was UCSB’s first road win over a Pac-12 school in over a decade and should really give UCSB a high level of confidence going into conference play. They’ve had two 30-plus point wins since the Washington game.

Who they’ve lost to

Cal, Oregon State, Arizona State, USC (wow, the Gauchos scheduled five Pac-12 schools), South Dakota State, Vermont, Akron.

Worst loss

I guess the loss at Vermont would count as UCSB’s worst, though a loss on the road three time zones away to a team in the top-half of Division I teams.

What they’ve done well

UCSB has done a great job running a new offense and playing a new style after the loss of Alan Williams. One thing Bob Williams’ players always seem to figure out is how to play the role they need to play for the Gauchos to be successful.

The losses UCSB has sustained have been to mostly excellent teams. The best team they’ve played has probably been Arizona State, and they only lost to the Sun Devils by two in Tempe.

What’s changed

A lot about the way the Gauchos look on the court has changed, but a lot about the program has not. That includes having an experienced leader (Michael Bryson), a number of talented players on the roster (John Green and Gabe Vincent, among others). Bryson is averaging over 20 points per game and is probably the early favorite for Big West Player of the Year.

UCSB getting their best players the ball in places they can be successful and playing generally good basketball is something that might not every change.

Transfer game

UCSB has some prep school kids, but they’re the only team in the Big West without a single Division I or JuCo transfer on their roster.

Long Beach State (6-9)

Once again, Dan Monson’s 49ers have the toughest non-conference schedule in college basketball. Since the Big West isn’t a multi-bid league, Long Beach State continues to play the toughest schedule possible in order to toughen themselves up for conference play. This is a team that doesn’t back-down and doesn’t go away.

It seems like they were really down last season, but they finished Big West play 10-6 and in fourth place. Despite the loss of Mike Caffey, it’s really hard for me to think of them as doing anything but improving this season.

Who they’ve beaten

BYU Hawai’i, BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State, New Mexico State, Tampa.

Best win

The home win against BYU showed what Long Beach State can be. Monson’s team can win close, low scoring games. They can compete in higher-scoring affairs. They don’t back down from anyone. Also, the 49ers are going to be really tough at home.

Who they’ve lost to

Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice), San Diego State, UCLA, Pepperdine, Oregon, Arizona, Duke

Worst loss

Losing to Pepperdine isn’t the worst thing in the world, but it’s definitely Long Beach State’s worst loss so far, especially considering they’re another mid-major from the greater Los Angeles area who Monson and co. had to see as imminently beatable. All their other losses leave any room for hanging of heads.

What they’ve done well

Long Beach State usually takes on Monson’s personality. They are tenacious and don’t go away, even when they’re down in games. If you’re going to beat the 49ers, you cannot let up for multiple possessions, or you’ll find yourself quickly falling-behind.

What’s changed

We all thought Tyler Lamb was going to be some kind of Big West Player of the Year candidate in Long Beach, but the UCLA transfer never delivered on his big-time transfer promise.

Enter transfers Nick Faust, a senior Maryland transfer who is as good as advertised. Faust has averaged almost 16 points per game and is imposing his will throughout Long Beach State games. Travis Hammonds has been a pleasantly consistent player and 5’8″ sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins has taken to full-time duty nicely, averaging nine points and almost six assists per game while taking extremely good care of the ball.

Transfer game

Long Beach State is a school who is able to benefit from transfers pretty consistently. Three of the four transfers on the roster are eligible right now, and Faust and Levin are the two best. Levin is a slightly undersized post player with high basketball IQ and a savvy mid-range game.

UC Davis (5-8)

Coming off a magical regular season run, Jim Les’ squad lost a ton of talent to graduation, including Corey Hawkins. Returning were supposed to be Josh Fox and J.T. Adenrele, but Adenrele has been sidelined all year with a knee injury, causing the Aggies to get really young in a hurry.

Who they’ve beaten

Portland, Fresno Pacific, Utah Valley, Sacramento State, Holy Names

Best win

UC Davis beat regional rival Sacramento State in a close game in preseason. The Aggies haven’t won against a team in the top half of Division I yet this season.

Who they’ve lost to

North Dakota State, Sacramento State, Saint Mary’s, San Diego, Air Force, Idaho, Seattle, Boise State.

Worst loss

By the numbers, their six-point loss at San Diego doesn’t look great.

What they’ve done well

UC Davis still shoots the ball fairly well from long-range (37 percent). They also distribute their scoring pretty well with six players averaging over 9 points per game. Three of those players also shoot 40-plus percent from long range. You have to guard the three-point shot against UC Davis. Also, the sky is blue.

What’s changed

A lot. Without Adenrele, Fox has been their big two-point threat from down low. The two-headed post monster of Neal Monson and Nolan Berry, a 6’10” sophomore transfer from Butler have done a good job of stepping in, but the Aggies offense has been nowhere near as potent without departed seniors Hawkins and Josh Ritchart. They still have guys who can shoot, but they are a weirdly bad free-throw shooting team.

Transfer game

With Adenrele out, it’s a good thing Berry and Monson (Salt Lake Community College) were ready to go. The two average a combined 42 minutes, 18.4 points, and 12.8 rebounds. Josh Fox (City College of San Francisco) is now the leader in Davis, though he’s been in the program for a few years. Two other players on the roster are also transfers, though neither came from Division I.

CSUN (5-9)

Reggie Theus knew this season was going to be a rebuilding year. With a number of transfers in the queue and another freshman class on the horizon, CSUN is probably going to be in serious contention a year from now. Early this season, it’s been a trial by fire for Tre Hale-Edmurson and a lot of players with very little experience.

Who they’ve beaten

Wright State, Vanguard, Portland State, Bethesda, Morgan State

Best win

In their second game, CSUN beat Wright State on a neutral court in Illinois.

Who they’ve lost to

Northern Illinois, South Dakota, USC, Loyola Marymount, UCLA, Pepperdine, San Francisco, San Diego, Idaho State

Worst loss

A loss to Idaho State currently stands as the worst one for Reggie Theus’ team. He’s learning a lot about some players though, many of whom could be fighting for playing time when the incoming players he has lined up for next year arrive.

What they’ve done well

Theus’ teams always compete hard. He demands that they play hard, and they always do. Players like freshman Jason Richardson have been thrown into the fire and should be better for it in conference play. Tre Hale-Edmurson is a proven commodity. Kendall Smith, a recently-eligible transfer (UNLV) has already established himself as the team’s leading scorer.

What’s changed

Without a lot of experience, CSUN is turning the ball over a lot and not shooting very well from three-point range. Landon Drew and Hale-Edmurson both shoot a high percentage from downtown, but neither get the opportunity very often. Actually, nobody shoots threes very often: Trevion Dawson leads the team with 24 three-point attempts. To give it context, that would rank fifth on the team at Cal Poly.

Transfer game

Kendall Smith has only been back for five games, but is averaging almost 15 shots per. Getting Smith more shots will take some shots away from lower-percentage players like the freshman Richardson and others and should make CSUN a tougher team to defend.

Olalekan Ajayi is an interesting story. He graduated from Eastern Michigan last year and has been a consistent inside presence for the Matadors as a senior.

Darin Johnson (Washington), Reggie Theus Jr. (South Carolina), Rakim Lubin (Connecticut), Dylan Johns (Texas A&M), and Blair Orr (University of Winnepeg) should all be eligible by next season, when the Matadors should probably be out of the bottom-half of the Big West preseason poll.

I’ve done previews before, and this year’s Big West men’s basketball season is sure to be a fun one. Off we go into the world of 49ers, Anteaters, Aggies, Warriors, Titans, Mustangs, Matadors, Highlanders, and Gauchos.

9 – Cal State Fullerton

Dedrique Taylor has a few good guards becoming eligible this year and it looks like Fullerton will be able to shoot it. By Owen Main

Last season

The Titans seem to be in an almost constant rebuilding mode. In his second year at the helm, head coach Dedrique Taylor’s squad went 8-7 in the preseason before stumbling to a 1-15 conference record. Their preseason actually had some decent performances (wins vs. San Jose State, at Nevada, and a four-point loss at USC).

This year’s schedule

Cal State Fullerton will go to the Pacific Northwest twice in the preseason for four games (including at Washington and at Oregon State), but they’ll only have one non-conference game in a different time zone, when they travel to Cedar City, Utah to face Southern Utah on November 24th.

Their schedule includes 7 conference games on either ESPN3 or Fox Sports Prime Ticket.

Who to watch out for?

Fullerton returns just one starter from last year in center Kennedy Esume, so it will be important from two Division 1 transfers to provide big-time production this season. Tre Coggins is a 6’2″ junior guard who transferred to Fullerton from Air Force and sat out last season. Coggins averaged 16 points per game in his last year at Air Force and figures to be one of the Titans’ top scorers.

Alongside Coggins, 6’4″ senior guard Malcom Brooks, a Pepperdine transfer should also play a big role. Brooks averaged 10 points per game two years ago at Pepperdine and, pairing with Coggins, should make up for some of the scoring punch lost with departed guards Alex Harris and Josh Gentry.

Of Brooks and Coggins, head coach Dedrique Taylor said,

“They saw what we went through [while sitting out last season] and the struggles that we were having both on and off the floor and I think they’ve immediately stepped to the floor and answered the bell with our character quotient and how we are living our lives off the floor. I think it’s carried over to on the floor. Character is exceptionally high and they understand what they are here for and they’re excited about it.”

Taylor expects them both to be able to score the ball and, if Fullerton is to compete this year, they’re likely going to be having to put up big points.

The unknown

Because of some of the turnover their program has experienced, Cal State Fullerton is one of the biggest unknowns. Will their transfers play well together? Will their three freshman and three junior transfer newcomers contribute? Nobody really knows anything about this team yet and that could make them really dangerous, especially the first time teams play them in conference.

That said, they might just need another year. There are no moral victories, but an improvement to four or five conference wins could be a step in the right direction.

8 – CSUN

Theus’ program now

In his third year at the helm in Northridge (and with a new extension freshly inked), Reggie Theus’ squad will look to make a big step forward. Last season, I thought the Matadors would make that step. Their hearts were broken after Cal Poly beat them in a close conference final in 2014 and they were poised to be very good once again. But the Matadors kind of flamed out in conference play, going 4-12 in the Big West to finish in 8th place.

As a coach gets into his third season with a program, the players he recruited start to dominate the roster. This year might have been one for Theus’ program to make a move, but some off-the-court issues caused a number of players to leave the team last season.

“I know we’re headed in the right direction,” said Theus. “The truth of the matter is I haven’t had a full team since I got here… . My first year (at CSUN), I played with eight scholarship players, my second year, I played with seven scholarship players, and now today I’ve got five scholarship players.”

The void left by those and the number of transfers on the roster who cannot play this year, could make 2015-16 an “in-between” year for CSUN. Theus hasn’t really had a full roster of players in any of his years at CSUN. Next year, he almost definitely will.

The roster

Senior forward Tre Hale-Edmurson is a guy who can take over games as he proved in the Big West final two years ago, but he’ll have to fight the inclination to try to do too much, especially with a young and relatively inexperienced team around him. Landon Drew and Aaron Parks should also be solid contributors.

For those of you who watched the Mission Prep Christmas Classic last season in SLO, freshman guard Jason Richardson is a player whose name you might recognize from Serra High School in Gardena. Richardson was also being recruited by Cal Poly at one point and he’s a bowling-ball of a point guard who can rebound and probably take the physicality of the position at the next level right away. The freshman is walking-on at CSUN and got some playing time in an early exhibition and his quick progression could make a big difference for CSUN early-on.

“We missed the NCAA’s by one play my first year, and we had a chance to really do some great things the following year [last season],” said Theus. “I had some really good players sitting out, some young players that were going to come in and play the following year, and the mixture of those young players with the veterans I had on the other team would have really been a great mix. But it didn’t work out, so you have to keep moving. Now I’ve got a team where all of those veteran guys are graduated. I’ve got three seniors, the rest of the team is made up of basically freshmen and sophomores. So, we’re young.”

So, what is the deal with the transfers?

Seven of the 17 players on the roster are transfers, which means we’ll know a lot more about this team come conference play. Among the transfers are many who won’t play this year, including Kendall Smith (UNLV) Darin Johnson (Washington), Reggie Theus Jr. (South Carolina), Rakim Lubin, Dylan Johns (Texas A&M).

“I’ve got four high-major players sitting out, so I think that now, the following year, when you mix the youth that we have this year that will get some really good experience with the guys that are sitting out, then next year will basically be my first year with all of my players on the floor or actually a full team.”

All this adds up to CSUN probably being in the top-3 or top-4 in my poll next year, but they are still a year away. Theus’ teams always compete and I could see them being a really tough first-round out in the Big West Tournament, even from the six, seven, or eight-hole.

7 – UC Davis

Last Season

Last year was pretty magical for UC Davis. With a few really great seniors, the Aggies and head coach Jim Les won nine of their first 10 games overall and went on a tear in conference play where they went 14-2 en route to the regular season title. Seniors Corey Hawkins and Josh Ritchart are gone, but so are guards Avery Johnson and Tyler Les, the son of the coach. Hawkins and Ritchart were the big scorers on the team, but between the four seniors, UC Davis lost 61 percent of their scoring from last year.

Random Stat

Nobody on the Aggies averaged as many as five rebounds per game last season. For a team as successful as they were, UC Davis was unusual in that they were out-rebounded by their opponents. This year, someone will average five-plus rebounds becuase…

Jim Les’ UC Davis Aggies had a great season last year, but a repeat performance will be tough. By Owen Main

JT is back

Coming off a knee injury, JT Adenrele only played 18 minutes per game as a junior. He’s sure to get more time this year and is a beast down low. His explosiveness on the block was fun to watch before his injury, and he’s a guy who UC Davis fans hope can carry a lot of the load in the middle this year. With lots of teams still sporting big lineups, Adenrele will have to do more than his share for Davis to be a contender this season.

The Schedule

Like Fullerton, UC Davis has a pretty tame non-conference schedule, though the number of decent Division-1 home games is pretty high. Their toughest challenge in non-conference play is a game at Saint Mary’s. The Aggies only go a time zone away twice (Boise State and Utah Valley) in non-conference play.

Next man up

I mentioned that 61 percent of their offense is gone, but Jim Les likes his scorers. Along with Adenrele, Josh Fox will be a senior and has a year in the program under his belt. The two will try to wreak havoc on the front line.

The back court is where I’ll have more questions. The relative inexperience of most of them is a key to why UC Davis comes in at 7th, and maybe I should respect what they did last year more than that, but they could probably creep into the top five or six if things break the right way.

6 – Hawai’i

My numbers six and five in my preseason rankings here could both be Big West contenders this year. Hawai’i went through as much tumult as a program can go through last year. They lost their coach and best player just days before the start of the season, and despite that were very competitive.

Their starting five includes three guards and is really talented:

#HawaiiMBB first five is still Roderick Bobbitt, Quincy Smith, Aaron Valdes, Mike Thomas and Stefan Jankovic

— Brian McInnis (@Brian_McInnis) November 13, 2015

Coaching changes

Eron Ganot is the newest coach in the Big West, and he takes over a talented group. While there will be some growing pains as Ganot gets his guys to buy-in, have no doubt that this team will play a significantly more controlled style than they did with Benjy Taylor last season.

If you want a blueprint for what Ganot will probably try to build in Hawai’i, look no farther than St. Mary’s, where Ganot was an assistant for the last few years. Also, listen to my latest podcast with Brian McInnis of the Honolulu Star Advertiser.

Sharpshooters

Hawai’i proved they can score the ball last year. Aaron Valdes led the team with 13.7 points per game along with 5.3 rebounds, but it’s the development of his backcourt mate Isaac Fleming that could really make this team dangerous.

Versatile guards

Roderick Bobbitt was the Big West’s defensive player of the year last year, but he also averaged nine points per game in Hawai’i’s three-guard set. Quincy Smith will also start, with Fleming coming off the bench and working his way back after a leave of absence earlier this year.

Adjustments

Hawai’i’s season will hinge on how quickly and how well the team can adjust to Ganot’s new system and style. While they probably have enough talent to be a top-four team in this conference, I put them in sixth because of the new coach. Everyone here and above could easily make the Big West Tournament final.

5 – Long Beach State

Dan Monson’s team will once again be one of the most talented in the Big West. By Owen Main

After finishing going to the NCAA Tournament in 2012-13, Long Beach State and head coach Dan Monson have finished third and fourth in the conference regular season over the past two seasons respectively.

While consistently being in the top half of the Big West would be an accomplishment for most teams, Monson’s squad hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012. Again, that would be fine for most programs, but constitutes a drought for the 49ers.

Newcomers abound

Long Beach State lost all five starters and five seniors after last season, so Monson has something of a fresh slate. Monson’s current roster is undeniably talented. Senior Maryland transfer Nick Faust brings ACC experience to the Big West and fellow Division I transfers Gabe Levin and Evan Payne (both from Loyola Marymount) will also help Long Beach to re-load this season.

Faust had identical 9.4 points per game and 3.7 rebounds per game averages in his two years at Maryland. Levin might be just as impactful. The sophomore from Connecticut averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds per game as a freshman at LMU. His former and current teammate, Payne averaged over 18 points per game his sophomore season at LMU.

Depth charge

While they shouldn’t have issues scoring the ball, Long Beach State’s depth and overall rotation are going to take some time to figure out. Monson will probably rely on sophomore Justin Bibbins at point guard quite a bit and Travis Hammonds, Branford Jones, and Temidayo Yussuf will all have significant roles to play. If Monson can find a way to quickly get this team gelled and playing together, they could contend for a conference title.

The schedule

Long Beach State always has one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the nation. This year is no different. The 49ers play at Oklahoma State, Duke, UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona. They tip-off the season against Seton Hall at the Charleston Classic, a tournament that also includes the likes of Ole Miss, George Mason, Bradley, Oklahoma State, Virgina, and Towson.

The Monson factor

Dan Monson remains one of the best and most interesting coaches in the conference. It’s about 10 times more likely that they out-perform this ranking than underperform it, but I am always skeptical of how players who have never played together will do until I’ve seen it. In a week, Long Beach could be my number-two team in the conference, but for now, I’ll keep them in the middle of the pack, despite the fact that they NEVER end up actually finishing below fourth.

4 – UC Riverside

UC Riverside has two of the five or ten best players in the conference, including the player who I think is the best returning player in the league, which is why they come in at number four. Head coach Dennis Cutts has put together a group of players who will be able to compete in the middle with the likes of UC Irvine and will have good enough guard play to compete with anyone.

Bland and Johns

Taylor Johns is my preseason conference player of the year. By Owen Main

Maybe the best duo in the conference, Trevor Johns and Jaylen Bland are the conference’s new version of Stephan Hicks and Stephen Maxwell, both of whom finished their careers with CSUN last year.

Last season, Johns averaged over 16 points and eight rebounds per game. His skill, athleticism and work ethic down low make him the most reliable player in the conference, on paper, coming into the season. Teams will game-plan what to do with him and his play will dictate the flow of entire games UC Riverside plays in this season, especially once conference play begins.

“He’s put in a lot of work on his own, developing his skill level, and it’s been really exciting to see that development,” said head coach Dennis Cutts. “He kind of embodies what we want to be about. We want to really develop players here and he’s been really the first one that we can really showcase that we’ve done that with.”

The thing that will help him is the continued tandem play of Bland. Bland averaged 15 points and almost 5 rebounds per game last season and he and Johns played together this summer in the Drew League.

“They’re a great compliment. Jaylen can really shoot it. Taylor kind of plays in and out. It really gives us both weapons.”

Bland didn’t play for about a year and a half before last season, sitting out because of transfer rules, and Cutts expects big things from him as well this year. “I’d be scared for people now that he’s with us and he’s had a great offseason and really comfortable with what we’re doing. I have high expectations that he can improve on his year last year.”

Bland was the 2014-15 Big West Newcomer of the Year.

There needs to be more than one (or two)

Stupidly vague Highlander jokes aside, UC Riverside’s depth will play a critical role this season. At point guard, Stephen Jones will be a senior who was injured much of last year and will be back. Alex Larsson started all but one game as a freshman last year. Robert Bozeman played in 30 games last year and will provide front court depth, while Secean Johnson, Malik Thames and Gentrey Thomas will need to play significant minutes as junior college transfers.

Stability

So, why is UC Riverside worthy of being picked as a top-four team in the preseason? When it comes down to it, known commodities are a big deal in this conference, and Johns and Bland are those. Even if they finish 5th or 6th in the regular season, these are two players who have the potential to get hot and combine to get the Highlanders to the title game in Anaheim.

3 – Cal Poly

OK, maybe my glasses are shaded Mustang green. Despite a Cinderella tournament run two years ago, the truth of the matter is that Cal Poly finished 7th in the Big West’s regular season each of the past two years. There are seven players on this team who were on the Big West Championship squad two years ago and Cal Poly has some impact seniors — something they really haven’t had since Chris Eversley graduated.

The Nwaba factor

Cal Poly senior guard David Nwaba is arguably the biggest, nastiest high-fly act in the Big West. He’s a player who is worth the price of admission to come see take the ball to the basket and he can defend against just about any guard in the conference. While the rest of Cal Poly’s back court consists of spot-up shooters, Nwaba is a player who can penetrate and finish with anybody.

Senior forward Joel Awich is one of Cal Poly’s X-factor’s this season. By Owen Main

Laying in wait

If you looked to the end of the Mustang bench last year, you saw why I picked this team to finish so high. Here’s who was sitting there:

Luke Meikle – (TR, Gonzaga) – Meikle is a 6’9″ stretch-four who should be productive right away.

Taylor Sutlive – (Soph) – Sutlive figured to play a big role in his sophomore season last year, but hurt his knee and redshirted last year. He looks back in fine shape and his stroke is still sweet.

Zach Gordon – (JR) – Gordon also injured himself last year and also red-shirted. He took a game-winning charge (if there is such a thing) in the Big West Tournament final two years ago, and provides length and toughness in Cal Poly’s front court.

Trevor John – (RFR) – Unlike the others on this list, John was suited up last year, but never played. He is a sharp-shooter whose game seems much like Kyle Toth, who had a good pre-conference run last year for Cal Poly. Consistent perimeter shooting will be key for this team.

Josh Martin (TR, Minnesota) – Martin left Minnesota mid-way through last year and will be eligible to finish his freshman year at Cal Poly at some point in December. His athleticism up-front is something I can’t wait to see. I don’t know how exactly his game fits in the Big West, but he’s a major-college talent in the Big West and is one of six or seven Mustangs who will vie for playing time at power forward and center this year.

Reese Morgan is a fifth-year senior who will be one of the leaders on this year’s Cal Poly squad that will try to play at a faster pace.

That Guy

Every year, I feel like there’s a guy in the Big West who fans look at and say “he’s STILL around?!”

Mike Caffey of Long Beach State and Orlando Johnson of UCSB were two of those players in the past. While I’m not sure he’s a Player of the Year candidate this season, fifth-year senior Reese Morgan might be that guy for the Mustangs this year. He’s been through so many knee surgeries and injuries that he hasn’t ever been able to showcase the promise he had when he led the state of California in scoring in high school. Morgan can still shoot the three-ball with anybody, has a few great games left in him in his final season. More importantly, he’s a veteran that can help stabilize a locker room in which any of 11 players could play really significant minutes come conference play.

Balance

This is the most balanced and talented team Joe Callero has had at Cal Poly. Callero, now in his sixth year, has the players he wants. Over the past four years, the Mustangs have created an identity as a slow-down offensive team, and Callero is working to change that stigma. “We took the training wheels, so to speak, off the program,” he said on the radio in Las Vegas on Friday.

If Cal Poly can pick up the pace and still limit turnovers, they could be one of the few teams with the depth and balance to compete with UC Irvine and the Big West’s best squads.

2 – UC Santa Barbara

Like Long Beach State, I’m always surprised if UCSB isn’t in the top 2-3 seeds in the conference tournament. The Gauchos lost Alan Williams, one of the best post players in Big West history, but they figure to be competitive once again. Teams led by Bob Williams usually are.

Replacing Big Al

Nobody replaces Alan Williams, but UCSB had a glimpse last season of what life would be like without Williams when he was injured for a seven-game stretch. UCSB went 5-2 during that time, which is a confidence-builder going into this year.

Green means go

John Green was really impressive when I watched him last year. He’s a versitile, 6’5″ wing player who can defend and give other teams fits. Green also takes a lot of pressure off of Michael Bryson to allow Bryson to expend energy on the offensive end. Both are great defenders, but Bryson will look to be the team’s dominant scorer.

Michael Bryson is a returning first-team all-Big West selection for UCSB. By Owen Main

Bryson Buckets

Michael Bryson was a first-team All Big West selection last season and is a prototypical 2/3 combo guard. He found a way to score almost 14 points per game and grab almost five rebounds per game on a team that Al Williams played on too.

Shots shots shots (everybody!)

After losing such a dominant player, there figure to be plenty of shots to go around this year. Gabe Vincent, the 2014-15 Big West Freshman of the year, will be one player who will look to take advantage. Vincent averaged over 1o points per game last year and will look to add to that. Senior forward Mitch Brewe started about half the games last year and even dropped 18 against UC Riverside in a game. He might be a reliable option for a Gaucho go-to in the post this year.

Shadows

The only question-mark about this team is whether they can get out of the shadow of Alan Williams and how quickly. This roster is full of big men who played a role in Williams’ shadow, but can any of them answer the bell enough to provide at least a threat inside? If everyone just makes small steps forward, maybe it won’t matter.

He likes the Lakers

Go figure. Maxwell Kupchak, a 6’7″ freshman and son of Lakers General Manager Mitch Kupchak, roots for the Lakers. His profile even says. Good to know. It’s something he and I have in common and if he didn’t like the Lakers, I’d think something was seriously wrong… . Really though, Kupchak’s father was a member of the Showtime Lakers and he’s been in the organization for about as long as I’ve been alive, so it will be cool to follow whatever career his son can have with the Gauchos.

1 – UC Irvine

Russell Turner has built kind of a juggernaut over in Irvine. By Owen Main

Everyone I talked to agreed with me: UCI are the favorite this season. The Anteaters shook-off the upset loss from two years ago in the Big West Tournament to earn their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago.

Head coach Russell Turner did a good enough job that he was courted by George Mason in the offseason, but chose to stay at UC Irvine. It was probably a good decision, because the Anteaters are still freaking loaded.

Mamadou mia!

Mamdou N’Diaye is the first person you see when you walk in the gym. Even by basketball player standards, he’s huge. He’s going to impact any game he plays in with his presence at the defensive end. On the offensive end, his skills are sure to have improved in this, his junior year.

N’Diaye was injured for much of conference play last year, but it didn’t seem to matter much, because Irvine’s front court behind him is solid and deep.

No Davis, no problems

Will Davis II was one of the first players Russell Turner built his version of the Anteater program on, and he graduated last year. Alex Sousa and John Ryan graduated too, but unfortunately for other Big West teams, those were really the only major loss the Anteaters sustained.

When N’Diaye isn’t in the game, the Anteaters can go “small” with 6’10” Mike Best or 7’2″ Ioannis Dimakopoulos. Their length is scary.

Underrated guard play

I talked about great tandems earlier, but Luke Nelson and Alex Young are as good a pair as you’ll find. Either player can take over a game with shooting or penetration and both are above average defenders. A casual fan will see how huge UCI is and say that’s the reason they win. But somebody has to get the big guys the ball in places they can score. Nelson and Young do that and more to drive UCI’s deadly offensive attack. The Anteaters are balanced, talented, well put-together team that is poised to repeat in the Big West.

**************************************

Upon further review, I might be too high on the likes of any of my second through fourth picks and too low on either Hawai’i or Long Beach State. The truth is, any of the top six schools in the conference will have a real shot at the conference tournament. There isn’t just parody in this conference, the overall play is slowly improving too, which is the best thing if you’re a fan or if you have dreams of the conference being a modern-day multi-bid conference. Games in this conference are worth checking-out.

What team do you think will find their rhythm in-time to make their mark on the 2015-16 Big West season? Who are you looking forward to watching?

Will another first-time champion be cutting down the nets at the Honda Center on Saturday? By Owen Main

Last season, Cal Poly proved that seeding doesn’t have to matter in the Big West Tournament, especially if you get hot at the right time. This year, the Mustangs are seeded in the same place, but upstart UC Davis earned the one-seed and numbers 2-4 are perennial top-four teams. What does the path to the tournament title look like for each team?

Jim Les has done a spectacular job this season. UC Davis only lost two games in conference play. By Owen Main

1) UC Davis

The Aggies were the biggest surprise in the conference this season. Prior to this season, UC Davis had finished in eighth place in the conference three of the past four years. With hindsight, we might have seen their big push coming. Two years ago, they finished 9-9 in conference play and the four seniors on this year’s team have all been key cogs in the past.

Corey Hawkins is the Big West’s player of the year in 2014-15, and Josh Ritchart is a really tough matchup for some of the conference’s best teams. This season, the Aggies went 14-2 in conference play, including wins in 10 of their last 11 games.

They were rewarded with Cal State Northridge in the first round — a team that was a few plays away from winning last season’s tournament.

Keys to victory – Davis has given fans no reason to doubt them, winning close games at home and on the road. To win the conference tournament, they’ll have to maintain their hot shooting. One key will be how well J.T. Adenrele and Josh Ritchart can defend the paint, especially in a potential matchup with a team like UC Irvine or UCSB. Davis is also the second-farthest campus away from the Honda Center, making games against Los Angeles-area teams more like road games. What will their fan support be like as the tournament progresses?

“Big Al” Williams has a super-mature post game that is fun to watch. UCSB is going to be a tough out this year. By Owen Main

2) UC Santa Barbara

UCSB has had an impressive last few weeks. The Gauchos, who played preseason games at Oregon, Oregon State, and Kansas, are battle tested and playing probably their best basketball of the season. They come into the tournament with a five-game winning streak, including wins over top-seeded UC Davis and third-seeded UC Irvine.

Alan Williams continues to be a beast in the middle, averaging 17 points and 12 rebounds. While Williams is the centerpiece, the key to their chances might be junior Michael Bryson. Standing at a long 6’4″, Bryson joined Williams on the all-conference first team this year because of his play on both ends of the floor. Bryson averages 12 points per game and can slash or spot-up for the corner three-pointer.

Keys to victory – As long as Alan Williams stays out of foul trouble — he fouled-out in last year’s first round blowout loss to Cal Poly — UCSB is in just about every game they play. That said, their shooting from the outside has been sneaky-good and might a reason for head coach Bob Williams to feel more comfortable going into this year’s conference tournament. Conference-leading UC Davis shot an incredible 45 percent from 3-point range this season AS A TEAM, but UCSB’s top-four 3-point shooters combined for a respectable 38.6 percent, and they are streaky.

If UCSB wins this tournament, shooting from players like Bryson, freshman Gabe Vincent, and senior Zalmico Harmon will be a huge deal.

Mamadou Ndiaye is a major presence in any game he plays in. His health will affect the style UCI plays in the tournament. By Owen Main

3) UC Irvine

Last year’s regular season champs and this year’s conference favorite, UC Irvine and head coach Russell Turner are still searching for their first trip to the NCAA Tournament.  The Anteaters are probably the deepest team in the conference. Eight or nine of their guys could and would start on most other Big West rosters.

That said, Irvine is also somewhat enigmatic. Their best-known player, 7’6″ Mamadou Ndiaye, has been injured for much of conference play. With Ndiaye in the game, UC Irvine plays a little slower out of their zone defense, but it extremely difficult to score on in the paint.

With Ndiaye out of the game, Irvine can pick up their tempo some and play with a better rhythm at times.

A team that has lost two of their final three games in conference play, the Anteaters will probably rely on senior Will Davis III. The All-Big West first team selection has been a steadying force for UCI over the past few seasons and will need to have three very good games if UCI is to survive and advance.

Keys to victory – The ability of Luke Nelson, Alex Young, and Travis Souza to control tempo when they need to is key. Shot selection and turnovers are huge keys for the Anteaters. Teams will be scheming hard against UCI’s size, but at the end of the day, taking good shots and maintaining an offensive rhythm will go a long way toward setting-up their big guys on defense on the other end. A potential second-round matchup between UCI and UCSB would be as good as any recent Big West Championship Game in terms of quality and talent of the teams involved.

Dan Monson will need some improved play from senior Tyler Lamb if Long Beach State is going to make a serious run. By Owen Main

4) Long Beach State

Long Beach State is a top-four seed. Of course they are, they’re Long Beach State. Dan Monson’s team hasn’t been quite as consistent this year as years past, but they have a senior first-team all-conference point guard and enough talent to do all kinds of damage.

The big question-mark remains their front-court play. David Samuels is second on the team, scoring 10.5 points per game, but the rotation I saw in their game against Cal Poly was more matching with a coach who was trying to figure out who else was going to play in the post.

Their non-conference schedule was brutal once again. They played Kansas State, UCLA, Texas, St. John’s, Syracuse, and Louisville before conference play even started. Once Big West play began, Long Beach State was a fireball, winning eight of their first nine conference games.

Keys to victory – All eyes are on Mike Caffey — for good reason — but what about former UCLA transfer Tyler Lamb? Lamb, who was a heralded recruit at UCLA out of Madre Dei, is third on the 49ers in scoring on the season, but has been underwhelming in conference play. The senior has been in and out of Dan Monson’s starting lineup, only managing seven minutes in a loss at Cal Poly. Lamb’s numbers and minutes continued to dwindle in the second half of conference play. In thier final game of the regular season, Lamb was back in the 49ers starting lineup. In order for Long Beach State to make a serious run in this tournament, Lamb is going to have to be the yang to Caffey’s yin. Either player can take over a game at any time. If they can finally figure out how to flow together, Long Beach State could be very dangerous. If not, a first-round exit against an improving Hawai’i team is a very real possibility.

Benjy Taylor has done a great job after what his program went through right before the season began. Hawai’i is a dangerous team in Anaheim. By Owen Main

5) Hawai’i

Just days before the season started, the Hawai’i program was in shambles. They lost their best player and coach and beat writer Brian McInnis and I were both pondering what life could be like in ninth place in the Big West.

If Jim Les hadn’t have won coach of the year, I think Hawai’i interim coach Benjy Taylor would have been in the running. The Rainbow Warriors beat Colorado and Nebraska, and lost by just a point to Wichita State. A crazy frenetic defensive press and some timely scoring helped them to an 8-8 record in conference play.

Four Rainbow Warriors averaged between 12.1 and 12.5 points per game in conference play, so it’s not as if other teams can just key on one guy. If they could key on a few, I think it would be 6’11” center Stefan Jankovic and swing-man Aaron Valdes. Guards Isaac Fleming and Garrrett Nevels give Hawai’i a pair of quick guards who provide relentless defense and get open shots because of the style they play.

Hawai’i hasn’t fared very well in the Big West Tournament since joining the conference a few years ago. Maybe, with the pressure off, this is the year they make a little noise.

Keys to victory – Hawai’i needs to control the tempo in order to come out with a tournament victory. Long Beach State has never shied away from high-scoring games, so this 4-5 matchup could be the game to watch in the first round. The other key for Hawai’i will be getting great half-court offense from their leading scorer, Aaron Valdes. Valdes’ numbers dropped-off somewhat in conference play, but that allowed Hawai’i to utilize its greatest strength — the unknown. Along with Cal Poly, Hawai’i is just not a team I’d want to play in this year’s tournament… .

Taylor Johns is a star in the Big West. Can his supporting cast help UC Riverside to a first-round upset? By Owen Main

6) UC Riverside

Behind junior Taylor Johns, UC Riverside was always going to be improved this year. Transfer Jaylen Bland has raised their level even higher. The junior who spent his freshman year as a Murray State Racer before transferring to a Junior College last season was second on the team in scoring and won the Big West’s Newcomer of the Year. Bland averaged 15.5 points, almost five rebounds, and shot nearly 40 percent from three-point range.

Johns is a strong leader with a solid all-around game, averaging 16.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per contest. The game-plan against the Highlanders is probably to hold down at least two of their top-three scorers (Johns, Bland, and Steven Thornton), and force the rest of the team to beat you.

Keys to victory – UCR has lost their last three games after beating Cal Poly 48-44 in Riverside. In a 70-63 home win against first-round opponent UC Irvine, the Highlanders got matching 21-point efforts from Bland and Johns while shooting 11 more free throws than UCI (Bland shot 12 all by himself). Irvine’s Will Davis III was held to nine points and only shot two free throws all game.

That game didn’t include UCI BIG man Mamadou Ndiaye, so UCR will have him to contend with, but the formula is still the same. If UCR can get to the free throw line and frustrate UCI, they might have a shot. All that said, I don’t particularly like this first-round matchup for UC Riverside.

A second-team All-Big West Conference player, Brian Bennett can score facing the hoop or with his back to the basket. By Owen Main

7) Cal Poly

After last season, nothing would really surprise me from this group. Everything sets-up exactly like last season for Cal Poly, with the exception of an established leader like Chris Eversley. As a side-note, Eversley told me on my podcast that the Mustangs ran zero/very few offensive plays in last year’s tournament championship run. I’m not sure if that can work with the current team and personnel Cal Poly has to rely on this season.

Listen to Eversley re-live the championship run on the Fansmanship podcast.

Perhaps this tournament can be Brian Bennett’s coming out party. Bennett scored 27 points at UC Davis and has shown he can play with the other talented big men in the conference. Big offensive performances from Ridge Shipley and Reese Morgan could also be a formula for Cal Poly to make a tournament run once again. As unlikely as it is, the fact that everything sets-up similarly could mean some comfort zone for Cal Poly. The Mustangs’ signature win of the season probably came when they beat Colonial Athletic Association champs Northeastern on a neutral floor at Santa Clara.

Cal Poly has a few things going against them. First, they played much of the conference season with only six players getting significant minutes. Second, the Mustangs went 1-7 against the top four teams in the Big West in conference play. Third, question marks abound on this team. Can the offense flow enough to get Ridge Shipley and Reese Morgan open looks from three-point range? Can David Nwaba find ways to get to the basket? It’s been tough sledding for him since he returned from illness as he gets his feet under him. Cal Poly’s defense is pretty consistent, the question will be where scoring is going to come from and how deep their bench actually can go.

Keys to victory – There isn’t one guy on Cal Poly’s team who has to have an awesome game or tournament for the Mustangs to be successful. That said, Joel Awich should be a tough matchup for a lot of Big West power forwards. Awich can shoot it from three-point range and is athletic enough to get his own shot virtually any time. It will be interesting to see whether it’s Awich or Bennett who Cal Poly goes to in the post late in games. Awich had a nice stretch in the middle of conference play, but Bennett probably passes out of a double-team better and has been more consistent throughout the season.

To win a game or multiple games, Cal Poly is going to have to do two or three things at a really high level. What I mean is that in statistical areas like three-point shooting, turnover margin, rebounding, free throw shooting, or just straight-up field goal shooting, Cal Poly will have a tough time winning games where they don’t do at least a few of those things really well. Turnovers are a good place to start. Guards Maliik Love and Shipley will have to hang onto the ball and make good passes and post players Bennett and Awich are going to have to make timely shots for Cal Poly to upend UCSB for the second straight year. Reese Morgan is someone I’ll be watching. Cal Poly’s sixth man for most of the season, Morgan’s career high came two years ago in Isla Vista and he seems like a guy this stage was built for. Again, Big Al and the Gauchos will be harder than ever to get through, but nothing would surprise me this year.

8) Cal State Northridge

The Matadors played Cal Poly in last season’s Big West Tournament final, and returned most of their key players. Along with school record-holders Stephen Maxwell and Stephan Hicks, head coach Reggie Theus returned Tre Hale-Edmurson and got good contribution all season from sophomore Aaron Parks.

Hale-Edmurson, Parks, Landon Drew, and Devonte Elliot are all talented players around the cornerstones of Maxwell and Hicks, but the team just hasn’t been able to put anything together this season. Elliot, a 6’10” senior transfer from Nevada is an important role player. His ability to play alongside Maxwell and Hale-Edmurson down low seems to be something CSUN is still figuring out late in the season.

UC Davis has had an amazing run, but their tournament history is limited. Reggie Theus’ team is experienced and you know he’ll have those guys ready to play in a familiar environment. I’m not going to pick an 8-1 upset, but like the 7-2 game, nothing would surprise me in this league.

Keys to victory – Know thy role.

CSUN has struggled to pass the “body language test” at times this season. Hicks and Maxwell are the focal points, but if Theus can get a few other guys to play just a little cleaner games and make timely shots, CSUN could be dangerous.

Predictions

I’m not going to predict rounds, because that’s silly when teams are re-bracketed after the first round. Also, if you told me the final would be Hawai’i vs. UCSB, I would not be surprised. I’ll repeat myself — anything can happen in Anaheim.

That said, I think UC Davis finds a way to get to the final, where they’ll play UC Irvine. Because of Davis’ relative inexperience in the postseason and Irvine’s ability to defend all over the floor, I’m picking the Anteaters to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in the history of their men’s basketball program. Jim Les and Russell Turner have gone down different paths, but the “new regime” of Big West coaches have all upped the level of play in a conference I believe will have two teams in the NCAA tournament sometime in the next four to eight years.