The (extremely difficult) path to the Big West Tournament for Cal Poly Men’s Soccer

With their fourth straight loss on Wednesday night, Cal Poly men’s soccer continued to sit on three points in conference play. If that wasn’t bad enough, UC Davis beat UCSB, which meant that Sacramento State, UC Davis and UCSB are all sitting at 10 points, seven ahead of Cal Poly with just five matches to play. So, what will it take for Cal Poly to make the conference tournament? Let’s examine.

Over the past few years, 14 points has been a virtual lock for the playoffs. But the Big West’s North Division went wild against the South — everyone but Cal Poly — so I would guess that if Cal Poly wants to make it this year, 15 points would be the minimum necessary. 

That means they probably need 12 more points — four victories — over the next 5 games to even have a shot at this thing. 

Two of those games are against UCSB (home and away), two are against UC Davis (home and away), and one is at Sacramento State. 

On Wednesday, Cal Poly continued to push players forward deep into the second half and overtime, even after defender Adam Olsen was shown his second yellow card. The pain of the loss was less in Cal Poly getting zero points. Rather, Sac State’s three points vaulted them to seven ahead of the Mustangs. 

If Cal Poly can get four wins in five matches — I guess I’ve seen crazier things — then they’d probably also have to hope for one of the other teams to go in the tank.

Cal Poly didn’t do themselves any favors in the first four games against the South Division of the Big West, but the South Division didn’t exactly help the Mustangs, taking just five total points against teams that were not Cal Poly in 12 games. 

Cal Poly isn’t mathematically out of it, but if they thought they needed three points on Wednesday night, they know that there aren’t really other options at this stage. On Saturday, they’ll visit Harder Stadium at UCSB and try to fight through fans legally throwing things onto the field to get three points at what is the the toughest environment to play in the Big West. 

Photos by Owen Main.To view more photos, click here. If you just want to contribute to the cause Venmo @Owen-Main or paypal owen@fansmanship.com.