The Flip Side of $331.5 Million

Back in 2003, Arte Moreno bought the (then) Anaheim Angels for $184 million. Southern California pro sports was at an all time high.  In 2002 the Angels had just won their first World Series in a thrilling 7 game series over the SF Giants, the Lakers were on the back end of a 3-peat though the Western Conference Finals were far more memorable the finals. Even the LA Sparks and LA Galaxy won championships that year.

Moreno, who made his fortune with billboards, endeared himself to Angels fans quickly.  He cut ticket prices and lowered parking fees. He famously asked, “Can I lower beer prices?”  The reply — “You’re the owner, you can do whatever you want.”

In 2004, Moreno showed himself to be a major player in the free agent market, signing Vladimir Guerrero and Barolo Colon.  The Angels went on to win the AL West for 5 out of the next 6 years, though always falling short in the playoffs.  Guerrero could not stay healthy, Colon couldn’t stay away from the buffet line, and the Angels had became mired in postseason futility.  Pitching and defense were never the problem — it was always offense.  Baffling signings (Gary Matthews Jr. 5 yrs for $50 million), failure to sign (Mark Texeira), and questionable trades (Mike Napoli for, essentially, Vernon Wells and his $20mill+/year salary) failed to improve the Angels offense. They had solid hitters, but no middle of the order beast.

Enter Albert Pujols. Ten-year contract at a staggering $254 million for someone who is 31 years old.  Angels fans everywhere rejoice . . . right?

Name one slugger who thrived past the age 35 without performance enhancing drugs.  A-rod (age 36)?  No.  Manny Ramirez and his 2 suspensions (age 39)?  David Ortiz (age 36), once the most feared clutch hitter in all of baseball last year spent time in the bottom third of the order?  Anybody remember Alfonso Soriano (who’s age, 35, has always been in question).  How about sluggers from the previous generation.  Ken Griffey Jr. was never same, Rafael Palmeiro has Hall of Fame numbers, till it was revealed he  was doping.

Tony Gwynn bucks the trend, but he never hit for much power.  In addition, he did know what an off season training program was.  Before that, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, Mickey Mantle, all legendary sluggers which Pujols will be grouped with had their careers decline on the back end of 35.  So, while Pujols may be worth $25 million per year until age 35, I don’t see how the Angels can justify paying a 35-yr old who by that time will have been the (not continue to be) greatest hitter of his generation.  Imagine paying Jim Thome $15 million/year now?  How about Jason Giambi (and his pink thong) $12 million?  It just makes no sense.

Here is the best case scenario: Pujols has 4-5 amazing years with the Angels, stays HEALTHY, then becomes a serviceable DH after that.  If the Angels are lucky, Pujols can surpass Mays, Babe Ruth, maybe even Hank Aaron on the all time HR list.

Worst case scenario:  Let’s just hope the Curse of Angels 1st basemen skips Pujols.  Remember Mo Vaughn who signed a 6-yr $80-million contract back in 1999, then tripped in the dugout in his very first game and was a complete flame out afterwards.  How about Kendry Morales?  Two years ago he had a breakout season with comparable numbers to the recently departed Texeira.  In 2010 he shattered his knee jumping on home plate after hitting a walk-off  home run. He hasn’t played an inning since.

Even without major injury, the new Angels slugger will have to overcome years and years of evidence that says his contract will become more stale than the song on the Small World ride next door.