The keys to each Big West team’s tournament run

I’ve watched a lot of Big West basketball this year. Not like Trent Schlom or Richie Schueler level, but still, a lot. Probably too much.

Here’s a quick break-down of how each Big West Tournament team could get hot and win the title. Cal Poly was a 7-seed two years ago, so I guess nobody is truly safe, starting in the first round.

1 – Hawai’i (12-4 conference record)

Hawai’i’s Eran Ganot was the Big West coach of the year. By Owen Main

To win the tournament, Hawai’i will have to do what they’ve done all season. The Rainbow Warriors have continued to be relentless on defense and have run offense in a really efficient way. Roderick Bobbitt and Big West Player of the Year Stefan Jankovic are a great 1-2 punch and Aaron Valdes gets to go on a personal 8-0 run from time to time. Isaac Fleming left the program in the middle of conference play and Hawai’i did lose to UC Davis late in the year at home, but that might not be a bad thing for this club going into the tournament.

Hawai’i made the Big West final last year, giving guys valuable experience and they beat the conference’s second-best team twice this year. I think we now what we’re getting from Bobbitt and Jankovic at this point. Teams are scheming hard against them. Valdes as the third scorer could win a game on his own, and not many teams have a guy like that. He’s the kind of player who can go for 6 points or 36 points and Hawai’i may need at least one or two BIG games out of him in Anaheim.

2 – UC Irvine

Russell Turner’s Anteaters are looking for back to back tournament titles. By Owen Main

The Anteaters went to their first NCAA Tournament in 2015 and most of their team is back this year. They are one of the most calm teams under pressure. Whatever they’re good at, they have two or three guys who can do it. Luke Nelson and Alex Young can shoot off the dribble or pass with the best of them — and at the right times too. Mamadou Ndiaye makes like tough for opponents inside, but Ioannis Dimakopoulos is 7’3″ and would start on most other Big West teams. Oh yeah, Mike Best is 6’10” and has range from the 4 or could play the 5 in a UCI “small” lineup.

Russell Turner’s team is always well-prepared. Look for how Luke Nelson is shooting in the tournament. Usually he likes to pick his spots, but he may need to get hot in a second half or two for UCI to make a big run.

3 – Long Beach State (12-4 conference record)

Nick Faust is one of the most explosive players in the Big West. By Owen Main

Even in down years, Long Beach State never seems to be below third or fourth. This season, a group led by sophomore Justin Bibbins and transfers Nick Faust and Gabe Levin were able to gel quickly en route to a 12-4 record, one game out of first place in the conference.

Faust is clearly the best player on Long Beach State, but Bibbins has really excelled this season and is the little engine that makes the 49ers go. He’s a sophomore point guard who leads on the court. If he hadn’t have been injured for part of this season, Long Beach State might have had an even better record. Teams will do everything they can to make Bibbins uncomfortable, but with talent like Travis Hammonds, Levin, and Faust around him, that won’t be an easy task.

Long Beach State is where I start talking more about matchups. With the conference tournament re-seeded for the second round, things could get wacky. I never count a Dan Monson team out, though. Nobody would be surprised if the 49ers ride point guard leadership and the best pure talent in the conference to a tournament title.

4 – UC Santa Barbara (11-5 conference record)

Michael Bryson is probably the best all-around player in the Big West. By Owen Main

The Gauchos are the hottest team in the conference for sure, but this is where we get even deeper into talking about match-ups. UCSB does a great job playing to their strengths — lots of offensive movement and guards getting shots and drives they want to. Gabe Vincent can get as hot as anybody in the conference and Michael Bryson has developed his game enough to get some serious looks from people at the next level. Again, a third scorer in John Green could be a guy to watch out for in the tournament as could the combination of Mitch Brewe and Sam Beeler. The two UCSB bigs know their roles, set hard screens, and get lots of easy buckets. If other teams can jam-up their motion offense, keep limit the big men’s layups and make UCSB settle for contested jumpers, it could be a good game plan.

It’s easier said then done. UCSB’s offense is relentless and makes defenses pay dearly for every lapse and sometimes it doesn’t matter whether Vincent’s jumpers are contested. Bob Williams has completely retooled this team this season and his conference tournament experience can’t be ignored as a huge advantage for the Gauchos.

5 – UC Davis (6-10 conference record)

The Aggies are last year’s regular season Big West champs and lost a lot of talent. With that in mind, getting to fifth place in the conference is a big deal. Head coach Jim Les has developed his team into one who can beat anybody. Davis went through a six-game losing streak in the second round of conference play. They played UCSB close twice, but lost both regular season games.

If Davis is to win, they need one or two of their guards to have big games. Brynton Lamar and Darius Graham have both been a little better than expected this year and Neal Monson has stabilized the inside, leading the conference in rebounds. There are lots of ways UC Davis could lose, but to win, they’ll need to shoot well, take care of the ball, and play the tough defense that has kept them in most games they played this season.

6 – UC Riverside (5-11 conference record)

Jaylen Bland can be a cold-blooded assassin scorer and makes UCR dangerous with or without Taylor Johns. By Owen Main

The Highlanders were dealt a big blow when Taylor Johns was dismissed from the team halfway through conference play. One can imagine the tumult that can cause and the kind of effect it has when a returning all-conference senior star is kicked off the team.

Sometimes teams respond to something like that with strong play. UCR lost four of their final five games after the Johns dismissal and have a tough matchup against Long Beach State. To beat the 49ers, the Highlanders will have to get some big-time production and defensive play from Secean Johnson and Jaylen Bland. While they have some good players left — they beat Hawai’i in Honolulu post-Johns’ departure — the loss of Johns would have been the single player I didn’t think any team could lose in the conference this year. Truly, if UCR can overcome and get to the second round or make a big run, it will be a huge story. The team isn’t playing great. The matchup isn’t great. The circumstances aren’t great. But it’s March. Bland can be a cold-blooded assassin and loves making crucial free throws. Stranger things have happened.

7 – Cal Poly (4-12 conference record)

I can’t wait to see what David Nwaba has in store for his final Big West Conference Tournament. By Owen Main

OK, I’m not impartial on this one. I would love to see Cal Poly win. That said, I think may be a path for them here. It’s all going to come down to Thursday though.

The Mustangs are a team with enough talent to play close with everybody in the Big West. The question will be: can they finish? And they don’t have any more margin for error. Normally I’d say that taking the beatings they have throughout the year in the heartbreaking fashion they’ve taken them would be a negative, but then I start thinking about two years ago. In 2014 they lost bad to 2nd seeded UCSB at home in the final week of the season, only to beat them by 30-plus points the following week.

This year, they lost a game at UCI in the final week of the season and have lost four in a row going into the conference tournament. There isn’t any real reason to think they can do it, except that they’ve done it before and games up ’til now have been close. The Mustangs lost seven conference games by 4 points or less.

If a few shots start to fall in the Honda Center, will UCI start to have flashbacks and tighten up? Cal Poly were a freshman defensive brain fart away from beating the Anteaters in SLO. Might Cal Poly be ready to make a leap forward?

They’re the seven seed, so it’s not likely. But after two years ago, when lots of the guys on this team contributed to an NCAA Tournament run, I’m not counting anything out.

8 – Cal State Fullerton (3-13 conference record)

You better believe Fullerton is going to play loose and fluid against Hawai’i. By Owen Main

I really think the 1-8 and 2-7 games could be the most fun of Thursday’s games in Anaheim. Cal State Fullerton caught fire from three-point range when I saw them in-person. They only shoot 33 percent from three-point range as a team, but Malcom Brooks, Khalil Ahmad, and Tre Coggins are capable.

You better believe Diedrique Taylor’s team will compete and, like UC Irvine, I believe that Hawai’i is most vulnerable in the first round. If Coggins can hang with Bobbitt and the Titans can neutralize Jovanovich for most of the first half, I’d say Fullerton has a chance. It’s a super long shot, but nothing would surprise me in this year’s Big West.

What’s really going to happen?

The obvious final is UC Irvine vs. Hawai’i. My prediction is that if either of those teams win in the first round, they’ll make it to the final. If one of them loses in the first round, stuff could get really interesting.

Given conference records, the second round will be the best, but I think the first will be just as entertaining.

First round winners:

Hawai’i

UC Irvine

Long Beach State

UC Davis

Second round winners:

Hawai’i

UC Irvine

Champion: UC Irvine

Tournament MVP: Luke Nelson

I really wanted to pick Cal Poly over UC Irvine, but I just can’t. Go ahead guys, prove me wrong. I guess I’ll say this — the tournament winner is the winner of that first round game between the Anteaters and Mustangs.

Here’s to a great tourney.